Arrest of the opposition, reproaches to the Lithuanian MP, protests: what is happening in Sakartvele?

What happened?

Last week, the Tbilisi City Court confirmed a prosecutor’s request to arrest Nikanor Melia, leader of the opposition United National Movement (VNJ), founded by former President Mikheil Saakashvili.

Earlier, Melia was in pretrial detention, which she refused to pay after claiming she had been prosecuted for “political persecution.”

An opposition leader has been accused of inciting violence during the 2019 protests in Tbilisi. Demonstrations erupted after that, when Russian State Duma deputy Sergei Gavrilov addressed the Sakartwell parliament from the president’s rostrum.

On Tuesday morning, N. Melija was arrested during a raid against special forces at the VNJ headquarters. There were clashes between the VNJ and police officers at the headquarters and 17 people required medical help. In the evening in Tbilisi, thousands of opposition supporters gathered at the government building.

Because right now?

Renata Skardžiūtė-Kereselidze, director of programs at the Sakartvel Institute of Politics, says the situation has gradually escalated.

The decision to detain Meliá is said to have been made at a delicate moment: doubts arise as to why this was done when the opposition was fighting for their positions. Meliá itself, in protest at the alleged rigged elections, manifestly violated the bail release rules.

“The government had to react in some way. However, the reaction could have been milder, such as giving the detention more time, allowing Meliá’s lawyers to prepare for the appeal, etc. The opposition is now under heavy fire. pressure from the ruling party, a tension that could have been avoided. 15 minutes she said.

The parliamentary elections on October 31 are considered rigged by the opposition. Its winner was the ruling party “Sakartvelas svajonė”, which received almost half of the votes. Opposition officials refused to work in the new parliament and demanded new elections.

Prime Minister Georgy Gachary resigned last Thursday, saying he could not enforce the court ruling.

According to R. Skardžiūtė-Kereselidze, for some time it appeared that G. Gacharia’s resignation would give Sakartwell’s dream freedom of maneuver, allowing him to preserve his reputation by offering the opposition a negotiated solution.

“Unfortunately, the rulers have chosen the path of confrontation, they appointed a prime minister who is not very inclined to negotiate,” he said.

Irakli Garibashvili was already Prime Minister in 2013-2015. R. Skardžiūtė-Kereselidze says that he is known for his strict position and is quite a divisive personality.

It was probably the response of the ruling party and a certain negotiating position. During the opening speech, Garibashvili made it clear that he will not compromise with the opposition, “the analyst said.

I.Garibashvili – extremely loyal to the party “Sakartwell’s Dream” de facto leader, Russia’s close oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili.

Previously, as prime minister, he promised to remove opponents from the “political radar”, what the VNJ has called a “criminal organization.” Not only did he consistently refuse to commit, he actively sought to scale, he notes. civil.ge.

As prime minister, I. Garibashvili tried to cleanse the “Sakartwell dream” of people “disloyal” to Ivanishvili. He used family and professional connections with police investigators, possibly for political purposes, he notes. civil.ge.

Whats Next?

The analyst says the situation at Sakartvele is escalating very quickly. On Tuesday there have been protests of unprecedented proportions in recent months, despite the coronavirus and the winter cold.

“The temperature is high and quite dangerous, I don’t know where it will turn, collisions can occur. Much depends on the attitude and position of the rulers, “he said.

R.Skardžiūtė-Kereselidze says it does not support comparisons of the situation in Sakartvele with Russia and Belarus, where protest movements are currently taking place. According to Sakartvele, not everything is “just black and white”, both the opposition and the ruling party have made many mistakes.

“The experience of some parties, the lack of experience of others, played an important role in deciding whether the opposition will enter parliament and how to proceed.

The parties formed just before the elections lacked knowledge and resources, they found themselves in a situation where they had little idea of ​​how to win in this situation. Even if the election took place next month, it probably would not have received as many votes as it did in late October, “the analyst said.

According to R. Skardžiūtė-Kereselidze, people actively participated in the elections despite the pandemic and expected more opposition parties to appear in parliament. That’s what happened: Sakartwell’s dream has lost its seats, although it currently has a majority, but it is no longer constitutional.

“The results, which were questioned by the opposition, were in fact possibly distorted by irregularities committed before and during the elections. However, it is probably not so distorted as to change the composition of parliament in a very significant way,” he said.

With the opposition refusing to work in the new parliament, there is no shortage of frustration among voters: Despite their efforts, there has been no change, the analyst believes.

“Because Sakartwell’s dream continues to rule the country and there is no opposition in parliament to counter it.” The confrontation between the office and the ruler has been going on for several months, and the health and economic crisis in the country continues. Many important issues remain unresolved due to the political crisis.

These events are likely to shock party supporters and we will see more of them on the street. We should expect some changes in the next few weeks, ”says R. Skardžiūtė-Kereselidze.

What relationship does Lithuania have with the crisis?

Following the arrest of N. Melija, the chairman of the Seimas Foreign Affairs Committee, Žygimantas Pavilionis, left for Sakartvela.

According to local media, at a press conference with representatives of the opposition, Pavilionis assured that Melia’s arrest would receive an international response and possible sanctions.

Prime Minister I. Garibašvilis declared Ž.Pavilionas’ “offensive” rhetoric unacceptable. The president of the committee himself assures that Sakartvele has not had such tensions between the ruling parties and the opposition parties for the last 10-15 years.

“If we don’t intervene, we try to start a dialogue when we see such tensions in this country, it may not end as we would like if we want the country to join the European Union and NATO.” Unfortunately, we could not reach an agreement with one of the parties, although we negotiated until midnight, the EU and the United States got involved, ”Ž.Pavilionis told the BNS news agency.

R. Skardžiūtė-Kereselidze says that Lithuania should support the democratic processes in Sakartvele.

“Currently, both political forces and society are very divided, much more dialogue will be needed. It is good that it is also being carried out through other channels: the presidents and the foreign ministers spoke.

It is important that Lithuania’s position is better heard on both sides. Because if we are listened to and accepted only by the opposition, it is difficult to expect significant results “, – 15 minutes said the analyst.