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As a more contagious strain of the virus begins to spread across a dormant continent, the number of infections increases, hospitals are overcrowded, and mortality increases. Given that a large proportion of Africans are unlikely to be vaccinated in the coming months as rich countries continue to stockpile vaccines, epidemiologists predict a new wave of the disease later this year.
There is a growing risk that strains of the virus will be more resistant to vaccines, putting not only Africans but the rest of the world at risk.
“The third wave will be catastrophic, because vaccines were not available in Africa and South Africa when we needed them most,” said Tulio de Oliveira, director of the Krisp Institute for Genome Sequencing in South Africa. “If we don’t get vaccinated in the next few months, we risk another wave of the virus, which will be overwhelmed not only by the number of cases, but also by mortality.”
There are still under-vaccinated people in Africa – only 1.1 percent. of 1.2 billion. The continent’s population is vaccinated with a single dose, compared to around 50 percent in the United States and the United Kingdom at the time. populations.
Only 50 million. of more than 3 billion. The vaccine doses administered globally in Africa are published by the African Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC Africa), and the consequences of such a slow campaign are already becoming apparent.
The number of cases is doubling every three weeks and weekly rates on the continent may soon exceed the worst level on record during a pandemic.
The number of South African coronavirus infections per day has reached record levels. Several cities, from Johannesburg to Kampala, have been quarantined, with overcrowded intensive care units. In the poorest countries on the continent, patients die without receiving medical oxygen and adequate medical care. There is also a shortage of health personnel: often a nurse has to care for 40 patients.
Unprecedented scale
In Gautenge, South Africa’s economic center and the continent’s wealthiest region, mortality in the week leading up to June 20 peaked in a pandemic era, and private hospitals had to transfer patients to other provinces.
Namibia, with 4,795 cases per million people, is experiencing the worst global epidemic in seven days. Meanwhile, medical institutions and morgues in many countries are struggling to cope with the crisis.
Coffin growers and florists in Lusaka, the Zambian capital, admit they can barely keep up with the demand for their produce. Laura Miti, a public activist in the country, told Bloomberg news about a colleague who became infected with COVID-19 and died in hospital after a power outage was cut.
According to her, the shortage of workers fighting in the front ranks of the pandemic is also a big problem.
“Nurses overwork, their hands are shaking with despair,” Miti said. “They are simply not enough.”
According to the public agency Africa CDC, only fewer than 5.4 million have been recorded on the continent since the start of the pandemic. confirmed COVID-19 infections and approximately 141,000 deaths. But the numbers are believed to have been inappropriately lowered, with some 176,000 deaths in South Africa alone.
“The speed and scale of Africa’s third wave is unprecedented,” Matshidiso Moeti, director of the Africa chapter of the World Health Organization (WHO), said in a video conference Tuesday.
The latest wave has taken the pandemic to a whole new level, and with vaccine shortages, there is little hope that the same situation will not happen again.
Football / curfew
Rich countries are not short of more vaccines than they need, and under the COVAX program, a global initiative to ensure equitable access to COVID-19 backed by the World Health Organization (WHO), only 91 million people have been sent to 90 poor countries. . doses of 1.8 billion. doses scheduled for early 2022. India, which provides the bulk of COVAX volumes, has suspended exports in an attempt to stem a powerful nationwide outbreak of the virus.
Africa is not asking for charity, said Richard Mihifo, head of the Immunization and Vaccine Development Program at WHO’s Africa Division, in an interview.
“It provides an opportunity for the international community to avoid a more contagious strain that could negate the efforts of even high-income countries,” he said.
After fierce criticism, wealthy states, including the United States and the United Kingdom, have pledged to donate millions of doses. Vaccine batches donated by the United States and developed by Pfizer Inc. and Johnson & Johnson are expected to arrive next week, said Strive Masiyiwa, a telecommunications billionaire tasked with helping secure supplies for the African Union.
With the rapid spread of the Delta strain around the world, the fate of vaccinated and unvaccinated states is already clearly different. On July 1, almost 28,000 cases were recorded in the UK, but only 22 deaths. Meanwhile, South Africa reported 21,500 cases and 382 deaths.
At the European soccer championship, the national teams were greeted by amateur teams gathered in stadiums. In South Africa, meanwhile, there is a curfew, which means people have to stay home from 9 p.m., and in Uganda, parliament has stopped working to curb the spread of the virus.
“If we don’t get vaccinated quickly, our economy will continue to suffer,” said John Nkengasong, Africa CDC director. – There will be a fourth, fifth and sixth waves, and it will be very difficult for us as a nation to survive. We need to be very clear about what is on the card. “
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