Analysts on the drama in Warsaw: the beginning of the era of right-wing rule begins in Poland

The rulers’ qualifications are threatened not only by the rapid growth of voter support for the opposition Citizen Platform Party (PP), which Donald Tuskas has re-led. The PP, along with the Poland 2050 movement and several other smaller partners, could form a new coalition.

J. Kaczynskis’s army has been being cut down for a long time. The conflicts have now reached such a level that Jaroslaw Gowin, the leader of the Consensus party, has left the coalition, has been expelled.

Formally, the Coalition of the United Right, which has dominated Polish politics since 2015, no longer has a 460-seat parliamentary majority in parliament.

Yes, those in power on Wednesday’s stormy night were still able to rally several independent MPs and attract MPs from both Gowin and the opposition camp, with whom they voted for a law that many experts say is specifically aimed at the independent private television network TVN. .

“From now on, however, it is clear that working for the right will be increasingly difficult. A minimum majority will have to be reissued during each vote.” 15 minutes said Dominik Wilczewski of Przeglad Baltycki.

Maneuvers against TVN network operators, which are popular in Poland, can hurt large numbers of PiS voters.

Andžejus Pukšto, an analyst at Vytautas Magnus University, added: “The coalition can move forward gradually by holding individual votes, but, as Rzeczpospolita writes, this is the beginning of a long end for PiS.”

According to analysts, the maneuvers against the operators of the popular channels of the TVN network in Poland can harm the carriers: they may not like a large number of PiS voters.

Popular entertainment content

Formally, this legislation would prohibit entities from outside the European Economic Area from having controlling stakes in Polish media companies. In practice, the law would oblige the US company Discovery to sell its stake in TVN.

TVN, which does not shy away from harshly criticizing the Polish government, operates many channels, including the TVN24 news channel. TVN’s main channel’s evening news broadcast draws millions of viewers.

PiS strategists pushed for this law in the Seimas on Wednesday night. And although the bill will almost certainly be blocked in the Senate and the whole process will take time, the United States and the European Union have already condemned this initiative by the Polish rulers.

Governors have long sought to nationalize the media sector, arguing for national security reasons.

According to PiS, with the adoption of such legislation, Poland will join the ranks of other European countries, including France and Germany, where the possibility for foreign capital to participate in the media sector is restricted.

Furthermore, PiS lawmakers have recently argued that it is necessary to protect Polish media from the capital of Russia, China or the Arab world.

Almost two-thirds of Poles believe that PiS is trying to “liquidate” TVN, and 70 percent of respondents said they did not want TVN to stop broadcasting.

Critics, for their part, say that TVN may be absorbed by a state company. The same thing happened before, when the regional newspaper group Polska Press was taken over by state-owned energy giant PKN Orlen.

On the same day, the Polish Sejm added support for a new law that would effectively block the return of immovable property confiscated after WWII. Much of this property belonged to the Jews, so Israel is also outraged.

“The passion for this law is perhaps even more important to Americans. It is not officially emphasized, but the problem is very acute.

Of course, the TVN issue is also important. As a result, people took to the streets all over Poland this week. ” 15 minutes said A.Pukštas, recalling that PiS had already “castrated” the public broadcaster in the past.

Polls show that almost two-thirds of Poles believe PiS is trying to “liquidate” TVN, and 70% of respondents said they did not want TVN to stop broadcasting. In other words, in this case there is no usual halving of views.

“There will be active lobbying behind the scenes on the American side in the coming weeks. But the plans for this law are already undermining the popularity of those in power – after all, TVN shows, with the exception of shows politicians, they are also popular with PiS voters.

TVN entertainment content is very popular in Poland, regardless of political affiliation. Also, many people like to watch TVP, Polsat and TVN and then compare the information provided. The drop in TVP’s ratings shows that society is resisting the narrative approved by one of the parties, ”commented D. Wilczewski.

Opposition early elections are not interested?

In Warsaw itself, however, it was more interesting for political observers that day to tell of the dissolving and growing parliamentary majority that had become a minority government in the Seimas after a chaotic evening. How?

Initially, the opposition surprised the ruling authorities by initiating a vote on the postponement of the session and the decision to postpone the media law. The opposition proposal was approved by 229 votes to 227.

But that was not the end. Seimas marshal Elzbieta Witek proposed – in the opinion of the experts, in a totally illegal way – that a new vote be held on the proposal to continue the session.

Before that, the rulers had the support of three other deputies belonging to the Kukis’15 party, so the vote was won by 230 votes to 225. The three parliamentarians simply explained that they were mixed for the first time.

The opposition, of course, is outraged and speaks dramatically about the threat to democracy. But in the Senate, which is controlled by the opposition, the media bill will be rejected, completely real, and vetoed by President Andrzej Duda, who certainly hears criticism from foreign partners.

It is also an appeal to the Constitutional Court. According to analysts, a compromise and some discounts are still possible.

Wilczewski: The opposition will simply see how the rulers lose control of the parliament and the whole situation step by step, and will see for itself its audience ratings increase.

So perhaps the most important thing right now is that PiS will no longer avoid such makeshift coalitions during every major vote, as the right is already working on a minority government.

It is true that the opposition may not even try to win a formal vote of no confidence in the government, since the situation is quite favorable for the political forces that oppose the government. For the rulers, the opposite is true, so their opponents will likely decide to simply wait for PiS to finally commit to the company.

“If PiS wants to run parliament, it will need the support of the opposition, which is not possible at the moment. The opposition is not interested in early elections.

I think the opposition is determined to see the rulers roll to the bottom and rot. The opposition will simply watch as the rulers gradually lose control of the parliament and the whole situation, and they will see their audience ratings grow for themselves, “Wilczewski said.

The journalist drew attention to the recent increase in the popularity of the PP; this was clearly due to the return of D. Tusk to the main policies of the country.

However, the opposition will need time to prepare for the elections, prepare a campaign and improve it. It even appears that opposition parties will be interested in seeing Kaczynski seek solutions and form ad hoc coalitions, like on Wednesday.

Cases of political corruption of this type are expected to increase. Such trade, for example, is not uncommon for politicians in Poland and other countries, but on Wednesday it was sensational that the vote was illegal, “Wilczewski added.

Time will not benefit PiS

There are more tensions in the ruling coalition, such as that of Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, who has long been at war with a tougher supporter, Justice Minister Zbigniew Ziobro. For example, TVN radicals may not win.

But the public seems tired of the constant scandals donated to the country by the United Right Coalition, which seems to like to live in constant tension and force the whole country to tense: new issues arise that shock the public.

Warsaw is angry with Brussels for the judicial reform, discriminates against the LGBT community and initiates the controversial “Polish agreement”.

“Polls show that PiS would also get the most votes in early elections. Also, there are nationalists, the Confederation.

But what is happening is the beginning of the end of PiS. We are probably heading for a major change in the Polish political scene. ” 15 minutes A.Pukštas stated, recalling that PiS has almost completely caught up with PP on the qualification table.

“When politicians think that a boat is already damaged and that the water is dragging it, it is inevitable that they will start to run. There will be no more than 5-6 votes, but more and more deputies will run alongside the opposition, “added the political scientist.

According to A. Pukštas, time is not in favor of PiS:

Finally, let us recall the sharp rhetoric on the rights of sexual minorities. After all, the most important thing is the conflict with the EU over judicial reform. “

“It just came to our notice then. Also, Gowin left the coalition not because of TVN, but because of the ‘Polish deal’, because of economic policy plans.