Analyst V. Jurkonis: worst case scenario is Minsk’s devotion to the Kremlin



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Our position should not be questioned

Commenting on the events of the past few days, the Belarusian Prosecutor General’s Office applied to Lithuania with a request to help question outgoing President Valdas Adamkus in the criminal case “On the genocide of Belarusians” during World War II, our country flooded people crossing the border illegally, V. Jurkonis warned that “it is necessary to prepare for all possible information attacks”, but do not panic.

“We need to work consistently both in Brussels and in other international institutions, repeating what is happening inside Belarus: repression, torture, forced landing of the plane,” said the analyst. In his words, the situation on the plane requires a detailed investigation, because it is clear that Minsk is throwing its feet, trying to divert attention.

Illegal border crossings require strong inter-agency cooperation. “This is a signal for the European Union (EU), because Belarus is opening its borders very deliberately: Belarusians are not being released, but citizens of all other countries are asked, please.” It is also trying to burden our state and institutions with additional work.

The SBGS detained 52 illegal immigrants on the border with Belarus

The SBGS detained 52 illegal immigrants on the border with Belarus

In the past, this has been done, but not to such an extent. Now, it seems to me, there is an attempt to occupy us, splash and fill the information space as much as possible to panic, to question our position of value of principle.

Photo by Julius Kalinskas / 15min / Vytis Jurkonis

Photo by Julius Kalinskas / 15min / Vytis Jurkonis

As a result, our government needs to speak clearly and convey the message of who, how, where, why is being done and reacting, but not be discouraged. That is what Minsk wants most: to occupy ourselves so that we can focus as much as possible on national politics. perhaps looking for a wedge, something typical of “divide and conquer” typical of regimes.

According to the Chief of Defense Staff of the Lithuanian Armed Forces, who participated in the show. Captain Andrius Dilda, a public relations officer, the army is ready to run to the aid of the State Border Guard Service (SBGS) and start protecting the border.

“There are interoperability plans to confirm Both institutions (military and SBGS – past ed.) Require a formal request for assistance. Exact request, what help ”, said the officer.

The history of the plane no longer seemed impossible

When asked if recent events show that Lithuania and Belarus are entering a new era of relations, V. Jurkonis said that preparations were underway. “There is no news of that sharpening, now we are only living at the top,” he said.

In the words of V. Jurkonis, the logic of the Belarusian regime, perhaps unexpected for someone, is understandable. Although several red lines have been crossed recently, he questioned whether these events should be called that. Minsk has rarely complied with the norms and obligations of international law, for example with regard to the Astrava nuclear power plant.

“The Belarusian regime is not accountable to its people or to international institutions,” the analyst said. “That impunity has steadily matured to the point that even a landed plane is something out of the ‘impossible’.”

Screenshot from nytimes.com/Articles about landing in Minsk in The New York Times

Screenshot from nytimes.com/Articles about landing in Minsk in The New York Times

V. Jurkonis described the attempt to review the diplomatic post as a violation of all conventions, and the suspicions of the neighbors about possible smuggling are at least a smile, especially knowing the extent to which cigarettes are smuggled from Belarus to Lithuania.

“Duplicity is a typical behavior of a regime. The question is how much we value the full range of threats. Because it seems that the regime used to try to bite and punish for technical things, and now it is trying to further expand the arsenal of measures and at the same time shock, constantly shock, provoke debate ”.

However, according to V. Jurkonis, all this hides that Minsk still wants to return to normal. “This situation is abnormal, they lack oxygen, they suffocate, they are very aware that without cooperation with the EU countries, they are simply falling into the abyss of the Kremlin at full speed and that is what we are seeing.

According to the analyst, the worst case scenario for Lithuania would be the full devotion of Belarus to the influence of the Kremlin.

Messengers had to turn around at the border

As already announced, Belarusian officials on Friday at the border intercepted the Lithuanian diplomatic post carrying a car. The Lithuanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) issued a strong protest and a protest note was delivered to the representative of the Belarusian embassy over the incident.

According to the ministry, Belarusian officials demanded the removal of diplomatic stamps and the opening of the car at the Medininkai border crossing. When the Lithuanian diplomatic couriers disagreed with such a request, the car was forced to turn around and return to the territory of Lithuania.

Photo by Vida Press / diplomatic package

Photo by Vida Press / diplomatic package

“The situation at the border was extremely tense,” he added. 15 minutes said a diplomatic source.

The Foreign Ministry stated in the report that it was expressing a strong protest against the unprecedented arrest of a Lithuanian car carrying diplomatic mail at the state border.

“The arrest of a car carrying diplomatic mail at the state border is a serious violation of the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations. Belarus has once again demonstrated that the rules of the civilized world no longer exist for this state. This is a dictatorship furious in the center of Europe, “said Chancellor Gabrielius Landsbergis.

A representative of the Belarusian embassy was urgently summoned to the Foreign Ministry on Friday and handed over a protest note.

The Belarusian State Borders Committee declined to comment on the incident, BNS said.

“The committee does not comment on the situation,” Anton Bichkovsky, a Belarusian border official, told Interfax.

Diplomatic courier for the purpose of sending correspondence and articles and for diplomats working in other countries to maintain relations with their country is inviolable, duty free and cannot be opened or held.

This is defined in the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations. It also obliges the receiving State to allow and maintain the free communication of the diplomatic mission in all official matters. It is true that there have been cases in the world in which the diplomatic post has been opened and without any suspicion of a possible crime.

Sanctions against Belarus are tightening

The incident was fueled by tensions between the West and Belarus over the landing of a Ryanair plane and the arrest of journalist Roman Protasevičius and his girlfriend.

“Scanpix” / AP nuotr./Romanas Protasevičius

EU ambassadors agreed on Friday to ban Belarusian carriers from flying over Community territory.

They are preparing another package of sanctions. More regime officials may be blacklisted and Minsk may be subject to sectoral economic sanctions.

In Lithuania, threats from the Belarusian regime to open the border to illegal immigrants from countries such as Iraq and Syria are of great concern.



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