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“Today’s figures are not gratifying, but looking at the data, we can see that unfortunately the problem is Vilnius. It is home to 20 percent. Lithuanian population, but today there are 40% of cases in Vilnius . of all cases in Lithuania. Looking at the historical trend, we can see a steady growth of the Vilnius part since February. This coincides with the prevalence scenario of the British strain, when we have a certain period of acceleration and then an explosion By looking at the mobility data, you can also see that mobility is higher than in winter and autumn, “wrote the Facebook expert.
He said that we have a situation where the Lithuanian indicators are being pushed down by one region, and in others the situation is much better.
“It is obvious that more action should be taken not for the whole of Lithuania, but taking into account the regions. Vilnius (the whole region) needs special attention. However, more analysis is needed before concrete measures can be taken. Do we know Where is the virus most frequent? Elemental I lock up like it works when people believe in it. If you don’t believe it, entering it will not achieve the desired result. On the other hand, the epidemiological situation in Vilnius is now such that the question remains as to whether there is room for further action, especially considering the news about the emergence of the PAR variety, ”wrote V. Zemlys-Balevičius.
He also identified a couple of actions that should be taken: active contact tracing and preventive testing.
“It is not clear how much they will help Vilnius in particular, but it must be done with special diligence throughout Lithuania, so that the current good situation does not start to get worse.
The third wave has arrived, unfortunately, before we wanted to, it must be picked up and handled. Spring is near and it should help significantly. I hope that we have learned a lot of lessons and that we will deal with this wave much faster than the first two. The third generation does not lie, “wrote V. Zemlys-Balevičius.
A new variety has been identified
As already announced, 855 new cases of COVID-19 were detected in Lithuania on Monday, and 12 people died from this infectious disease.
On Tuesday, it was also announced that another new variant of the virus, the African strain, had been identified in Lithuania. According to the World Health Organization, this strain is 1.5 times more contagious than the current one. It is also unclear how vaccines against this strain will work. One person infected with the African strain is from Kaunas County and the other is from Vilnius.
The experts presented three possible scenarios for the spread of the coronavirus during a meeting with the president. You can read more about them here.
The variety is set in Kaunas and Vilnius.
Cases of concern B.1.351 (“South Africa”) detected for the first time in Lithuania The National Laboratory of Public Health (NSPL), which coordinates the coronavirus sequencing studies in Lithuania, reports that in the laboratory of the Santara Clinics University Hospital (VULSK) , Two cases of SARS-CoV-2 virus strain B.1.351 (South Africa) were identified for the first time.
One case was confirmed from a sample taken in Vilnius County (March 2), another in Kaunas County (March 8). The two cases are unrelated, that is, they correspond to two separate introductory episodes of this variety.
March 22 The Latvian Minister of Health also reported the first case of strain B.1.351 in Latvia.
Infections with this strain were detected much earlier in Finland (December 19) and Poland (February 10).
About strain B.1.351 and the possible consequences of its spread
“The strain B.1.351 detected for the first time in the Republic of South Africa is one of several that currently concern SARS-CoV-2. Among the many mutations available in this strain, there are several that are present in the viral spike (S) protein. : N501Y, K417N and E484K. Two of them (K417N and E484K) are associated with a decrease in the laboratory efficacy of antibodies to neutralize the virus. This means that there is an increased risk of reinfection with this strain if you have been vaccinated with other strains (lacking the K417N and E484K mutations mentioned above) or with currently registered vaccines. So far, there is no unequivocal evidence that, like B.1.1.7, the B.1.351 strain would spread faster or it would cause higher mortality ”, explains genomic epidemiologist Dr. Gytis Dudas.
The effect of the vaccine can be reduced.
After testing the vaccine in South Africa last month, he showed that the rapidly spreading strain of coronavirus could not only weaken the effect of the vaccine, but also ignore the natural immunity that developed in people who had previously had it, Reuters reported. early March.
According to Reuters interviews with 18 experts who are closely following the pandemic or trying to mitigate its effects, a new approach is emerging among scientists.
Most point to the breakthrough last year, when two were created about 95 percent. Effective vaccines against COVID-19 initially sparked hope that the virus was largely manageable, just as measles was before.
However, they say recent weeks’ data on new varieties in South Africa and Brazil suppress this optimism.
Now, scientists have no doubt that SARS-CoV-2 will not only remain with us as an endemic virus and spread to society, but will also carry a heavy burden of morbidity and mortality in the years to come.
For this reason, scientists say that people will have to deal with the need to continue to take special measures during COVID-19 outbreaks, such as wearing masks regularly and avoiding crowded places.
This will be especially true for people at high risk. Even after vaccination, “they will still want to wear a mask if the virus spreads,” Anthony Fauci, senior adviser to US President Joe Biden, said in an interview.
“A small spark of the virus is enough and it will spread another outbreak, that is the prediction,” said the expert on when life will return to normal.
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