Analyst Pavel Usov on the migration crisis: “We are on the brink of war”



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According to Usov, it is obvious that the main objective of the Minsk regime is “banal political blackmail”, which responds to extensive Western sanctions.

The Belarusian government is said to be aware of the sensitive issue of security in the EU and is trying to destabilize the situation in the Community with the help of immigrants.

“For the Lukashenko regime, such provocations, as well as threats to allow Russian forces to enter the country, are a key instrument to influence Europe.” This blackmail can certainly be considered a terrorist act by the Belarusian leadership, ” writes the analyst.

“Twitter” nuotr./Pavelas Usovas

He urges the West to act categorically, not to negotiate with Minsk in any way and not to make concessions. According to Usov, any doubts would mean even more provocations.

VIDEO: Belarusian border guards are blocking the return of migrants


Some ideological attacks are already taking place. Minsk’s propaganda structures are already deliberately demonizing the West, condemning the allegedly inhumane treatment of migrants detained and handed over at the border, and directly accusing Lithuania of even murder.

“On the one hand, the Belarusian dictatorship wants to disguise its own repression against political opponents. On the other hand, these campaigns are usually carried out on the eve of active military action. And there are enough reasons to grow in tension,” says P. Usov.

P. Usov: The Republic of Lithuania has tightened border controls and many immigrants from the Middle East have spread to Belarusian cities. Therefore, people’s safety and lives are in danger and Lukashenko has a big problem.

It seems to the political scientist that the transit of migrants through Belarus, organized by Lukashenko’s own regime, is already causing problems for Minsk as well: thousands of people have arrived in the country and not all of them are trying to cross the border with Lithuania or another. EU country.

“The Republic of Lithuania has tightened border controls and many immigrants from the Middle East have spread to Belarusian cities. Therefore, people’s safety and lives are in danger, so Lukashenko has a big problem.

The question arises: how to force migrants to cross the border without allowing both Lithuania and Poland to do so? There is a risk of clashes between open border structures. The fact that Lukashenko’s statements are inappropriate is evidenced by Lukashenko’s inappropriate statements, “Usov says.

“Close every meter of the wall. Not in vain have we invested enormous sums in border guards, in power structures. Our people must feel calm, they must know that there are men willing to protect them.

We have to do it. It is elemental. God forbid, neighboring countries will begin to apply tactics to expel the people they have invited through official checkpoints.

Then the act thought. We warn them and let them think ” Lukashenko launched a dose of propaganda during a meeting with security forces this week., who also accused Lithuania of killing people and described Lithuanian officials as “Nazis”.

According to Usov, Lukashenko’s chances of causing “physical contact” with Lithuania are slim: “This would be a complete civilizational catastrophe for Belarus and would mean Lukashenko’s death in every way.”

“An armed conflict, even a local one, with Lithuania would be a conflict with NATO, and Russia would be involved in one way or another. For Moscow it is important that Belarus does not agree with Europe, but it is not prepared for a major military confrontation with the West ”, emphasizes the analyst.

“Scanpix” / AP nuotr./Aliaksandras Lukašenka

But Usov suspects that the escalation of the situation on the border may have other objectives: to justify the admission of a Russian military base or Russian troops in Belarus in an “ideological and political sense.” This would “protect against external aggression.”

“In his usual way, Lukashenko is trying to prove to himself and to the world that he is not handing over the sovereignty of Belarus to Russia and admitting the occupiers, but that he is resisting Western aggression.

The Lukashenko regime has already created the conditions for the dismantling of statehood. “Its insufficiency can be so dangerous for the West that Russia’s establishment in Belarus may even be backed by a certain guarantee of security and stability in the region,” says P. Usov.



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