Analyst: One of the richest countries in the world has serious problems for the Taliban

The US and UK have already moved their Afghan embassies to Doha, and the role of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin highlighted the role, who visited Qatar this week. However, the relationship that has been cultivated over the past decade could soon become a cause for concern for Qatar if it does not present the world with a renewed Taliban: more hospitable to women and less hospitable to refugee terrorists.

Qatar’s ties to the Taliban and other Islamist groups have long been a source of tension for its neighbors and a concern for Western allies. With the last US troops leaving Afghanistan and the collapse of the US-backed government almost immediately, Western states had virtually no other means of communicating with Taliban political representatives.

Qatar was delighted to be able to negotiate with the Taliban, including selected funds and spectacular lighting, and gained the trust of its political leaders. According to a Gulf diplomat, between 500 and 600 Taliban live with their families in cosmopolitan Doha. Among them is Mullah Abdul Ghanis Baradar, the leader of the political wing, who negotiated between skyscrapers in five-star hotels that do not strictly follow Qatar’s rules of modesty.

This gave the Taliban the opportunity to appear on the Qatar-based television channel Al Jazeera and present themselves as a changed, more moderate and willing government. And Qatar, by actively fostering relations with Iran and Islamist groups, but at the same time serving the United States as a regional headquarters for military operations, has earned the opportunity to rise to status in the eyes of a key strategic ally.

At a press conference in Doha on Tuesday, Blinken spared no praise for Qatar for aid in Afghanistan. “At our request, he has been mediating diplomatically between the Taliban and the Afghan government for many years to find a peaceful solution to the conflict,” he said.

Still, it is unclear how Qatar intends to fill the gap between the image-saving leaders and the Taliban’s military wing, which is closer to Pakistan’s longtime political neighbor and not trying to get comfortable.

Western diplomats say the Taliban share a similar mindset with Pakistan. According to a diplomat who wished to remain anonymous, it was difficult for Qatar to come to terms with even Baradar, who is hostile to Pakistanis. And Pakistan is not the only one interested. Afghanistan, which has no access to the sea, is surrounded by powerful neighbors like Iran and China, who are more interested in its fate than distant Qatar.

“Qatar is an important channel between the Taliban and the rest of the world, but it doesn’t have as much influence over the group as Pakistan,” said Jane Kinninmont, Middle East analyst at the European Leadership Network. – Qatar’s relations with the Taliban focus on mediation and international relations. This is important for a part of the Taliban that wants to engage with the outside world and establish a pragmatic relationship that will help them get help and develop trade. “

Responsibility

Western governments have said that any cooperation with the Afghan regime will depend on allowing people to leave Kabul safely and provide humanitarian assistance, not harboring terrorist organizations, respecting human rights and assembling an inclusive government.

However, there is no evidence that Qatar can influence the Taliban’s approach to educating women and girls, although Qatar’s ruling family has made this a priority.

And while Qatari Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani has stressed that his country is working with the Taliban and Turkey to resume operations at the Kabul airport, the Taliban have not persuaded security personnel foreigner to enter the airport.

The Qatari government did not respond to a request for comment on its relations with the Taliban.

Realizing its own limitations, Qatar is not so much trying to encourage the Taliban to change their position as deep pockets to gain influence in a region of strategic interest to major states, another insider said.

Qatar, the world’s largest exporter of liquefied natural gas and one of the richest countries in the world, has financial and pressure levers in Washington, but Pakistan does not. This is especially true for the Taliban, as Western governments and international organizations are reluctant to support a regime that has yet to show that it has changed since the 1990s.

If Afghanistan becomes a haven for terrorists again, Qatar’s ties to the Taliban could become a problem.

Saudi Arabia has been severely criticized for recognizing the Taliban regime of the 1990s, that September 11 attacks on Al Qaeda were cracked down. Today, the rulers of the Gulf view any Islamic political movement as a threat to national security and their own government, and Qatari foreign policy is monitored with concern.

“Qatar can easily get into trouble and want to distance itself from the Taliban, or at least some of their leaders,” Kinninmont said. “Some Taliban are saying words today that sound international appeal, but it is unclear if this is about more than ‘rebranding’.”