Analyst Forecast: If we maintain the current rate of decline, a significant limit would be reached in the second half of February



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At a remote government meeting, Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė declared that no quarantine changes would be discussed or approved on Monday. Only the situation will be assessed.

Latest information

The government data analyst Aistis Šimaitis presented the latest statistical information at the government meeting.

“We should be happy, good news, we all feel that the percentage of both new cases and positive investigations is decreasing. The average number of cases has dropped almost 3 times, from 3,000 to 1,000 the number of positive cases is half Now we are somewhere at the level of early November, “he said.

A. Šimaitis said that although the situation is improving, the figures do not allow to say that the pandemic is under control.

“We went back a couple of months last week in terms of deaths. More than 37 people have never died in the last week. This confirms the downward trends,” said the data expert.

A government expert said there was also a significant drop in mobility.

“In recent days, mobility has increased slightly, people go back to work after the holidays,” he said.

Analyst Forecast: If we maintain the current rate of decline, a significant limit would be reached in the second half of February

© DELFI / Andrius Ufartas

A. Šimaitis stated that pandemic indicators are improving in almost the entire country.

“The direction in which all our parameters are moving is positive. We can say that the trend is sustainable, we have had a negative momentum for 17 days, ”said A. Šimaitis at the government meeting.

He stated that Lithuania is now in a phase of “exponential decline”.

“How much are we missing? We now have an average of around 1000-1100 cases. In other words, if we maintain the current rate of decline, the limit of 200 cases per day would be reached on February 2. That is what we had in October. If we slow down the criticism, then the limit of 200 cases will be moved to May ”, commented the expert on the dynamics of the coronavirus pandemic.

A. Šimaitis assured that the figures are very close to the limits of the controlled situation.

“You have to look very carefully and not slow it down, very close to the figures when the situation is already under control,” he said.

The expert said that even another wave of smaller numbers won’t be as painful as the fairly high ones.

Still, the expert explained that the situation is still not good in hospitals.

“There is such worse news here,” A. Šimaitis told the government meeting.

Support Bubbles – Now

Ramunė Kalėdienė, Dean of the Faculty of Public Health of the Lithuanian University of Health Sciences (LSMU), presented the proposals of the expert group to the Government.

“Despite the improvement in the situation, we are still in scenario D, the worst scenario. And how do we go now to scenarios C and B? Our suggestion is that we stick to that lower bound range. (…) That is, if the average of 999 cases has been reached, we intend to reach a lower limit ”, expressed R. Kalėdienė the experts’ proposals at the Government meeting.

He said that mitigation planning is already necessary for education, business, but this requires a very clear testing strategy.

The experts suggested maintaining restrictions on movement between municipalities. The same prohibitions will also continue to apply to the service sector.

Paulius Skruibis, associate professor at the Vilnius University Institute of Psychology, reminded the government of the idea of ​​support bubbles. If this proposal were blessed by the Government, one person’s home could interact with another home to provide emotional and practical assistance to people experiencing increased stress from isolation.

Both support bubbles undertake to have no other close contacts outside of them.

“We would propose to legalize this bubble of support now,” said P. Skruibis at the government meeting.

Priority is given to opening schools

Mr. Skruibis noted that 25 thousand. General education students need learning support when learning at a distance.

“We unanimously support ŠMSM’s proposal to provide distance education for those children who do not have the conditions to study at home. (…) Have space, computer, internet connection. Meals should also be provided there, as some have free food ”, presented the proposal P. Skruibis.

He argued that as the situation improves and scenario C opens, opening schools should be the first priority to be prepared for by vaccinating teachers, seniors and introducing tests for teachers and students. . The opening should be gradual: first for beginners and graduates, then for others.

Analyst Forecast: If we maintain the current rate of decline, a significant limit would be reached in the second half of February

© DELFI / Tomas Vinickas

Action plan for educational institutions

Tum Bernot, a physician at Cambridge University Hospital, listed all the measures that need to be put in place before schools open.

“Our first goal when trying to open schools, which will really require a lot of effort, is to keep them clean. (…) The first step is a negative PCR test, I would suggest that both students and teachers and support staff take test two days before returning to school for the first time. Students who received a negative test go back to schools, and those who test positive are isolated for another 10 days, “he said.

Bernot said there must be very clear rules and that they must work to prevent people with symptoms from entering schools.

“The second proposed step is to reduce risk and the transfer of roles of teachers in the chain. The vaccination of educational personnel and teachers would play a very important role. And before the vaccines come, I would suggest that the teachers run serological tests, “he said.

A doctor at Cambridge University Hospital said there should be as little contact as possible between students, with masks mandatory for all except those not attending kindergarten.

He said rapid antigen tests should screen all students twice a week.

The schools, according to T. Bernot, would open in several stages.

During opening phase A, students who need assistance (about 25,000 of them) and about 2,500 teachers would return to schools.

“It would be a pilot phase to see how things go,” said the doctor.

They must be spotted for testing 2 days before returning to educational institutions.

The municipalities must guarantee the collection of smears. This could be done by healthcare personnel or training personnel.

Two patterns

Two unions have also asked the government to review quarantine restrictions.

The Association of Estheticians and Cosmetologists asks the authorities to allow estheticians and cosmetologists to return to work safely from February 1.

The Lithuanian Employers’ Confederation (GDL) also addressed the Government and highlighted the conditions of unequal competition.

The document indicates that an important part of the commercial restrictions imposed by the Government Resolution have been “overboard”, since the biggest beneficiaries are currently the stores whose main activity is the food retail trade, but which also sell an important part of other goods.

The Grand Duchy of Lithuania offers to rely on the good experience of other countries to ensure the safe operation of shops, restaurants, cafes and other commercial and public catering establishments during the quarantine.

Delphi recalls that the extremely strict quarantine is valid throughout the country until January 31. To this day, movement restrictions also apply between municipalities in the country.

It is strictly prohibited to use the information published by DELFI on other websites, in the media or elsewhere, or to distribute our material in any way without consent, and if consent has been obtained, it is necessary to indicate DELFI as the source.



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