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In recent weeks, Russia has been concentrating its forces on the border with Ukraine and sending its landing and warships to the Black Sea, the Washington Post reports. Such actions have sparked an expert debate on whether Vladimir Putin is really preparing for an escalation of a seven-year war with Ukraine, and perhaps he simply wants to show it to the Russians or the new United States (US) administration. ).
Be that as it may, decisive action by President Joe Biden will be needed to prevent the Russian leader from following his reckless course, as happened in 2014, when Putin’s army occupied Crimea and started the war in another part of Ukraine. The former US Under Secretary of Defense for Ukraine, Russia and Eurasia writes to Evelyn Fark in the Washington Post.
The new invasion of Russia will not only be a new blow to Ukraine’s young democracy, but it will also destabilize the world order at a time when the world is already struggling with two catastrophes: the coronavirus pandemic and climate change. Furthermore, Russian aggression would send a dangerous signal to other countries that the capture of foreign territories is normal and that no one will defend democracy.
Biden has made it clear that the United States supports the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine. A serious signal was also sent when sources in Turkey told Reuters about the US Navy’s intention to send warships to the Black Sea. However, for reasons unknown until now, Washington canceled its deployment.
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New sanctions are undoubtedly in the works. Officials assess intelligence on specific cases of aggressive foreign policy by the Kremlin. They have already supported new sanctions for the poisoning of Russian opponent Alexei Navaln.
The United States announced economic sanctions against Russia on Thursday and said it would dispatch 10 Russian diplomats for Kremlin interference in US elections, major cyberattacks and other hostile activities.
President Biden’s executive order “sends a signal that the United States will price Russia strategically and economically if it continues or intensifies destabilizing international action,” the White House said.
NATO, for its part, has expressed its support for the United States after they imposed sanctions on Moscow.
“NATO allies express their support and solidarity with the United States following its announcement on April 15 of a response to the destabilizing activities of Russia,” the Alliance said in a statement.
At the time, Moscow vowed to retaliate against the new Washington sanctions.
“It just came to our knowledge then [JAV diplomatinės misijos] employees and, believe me, we have companies to which we have real claims of real interference in our internal affairs; Similar actions will be taken against them, ”Alexei Čepa, vice chairman of the State Duma’s Committee on International Affairs, told the Interfax news agency on Thursday.
According to the parliamentarian, the retaliatory sanctions will have a “mirror” character and Russia will be forced to take that step, although “it does not improve the international situation.”
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But Biden can do more by providing military aid and threatening new sanctions. In 2014, US allies and NATO launched a military assistance program to Ukraine. Fark recalled that while working at the Pentagon, his unit had prepared a series of scenarios for President Barack Obama, whose main objective was to help the Ukrainian army defend its borders by providing training and supplying weapons.
Later, when Russian forces seized several Ukrainian warships in the Sea of Azov, the United States also paid considerable attention to strengthening the Ukrainian navy.
“Now the US government can focus on improving the Ukrainian air force, because it was outdated even before the Russians started attacking Ukrainian planes,” the article said.
So far, the sanctions have been selective and gradual so as not to harm the Russian nation and the interests of Western companies. On the other hand, the abolition of access to international capital by Russian companies and state funds, or the denial of access to the interbank SWIFT system by Russia, could cause immediate political and economic stress for Putin and his comrades.
The mere threat of such action may force the Russian leader to stay away from Ukraine.
Putin has internal reasons for pretending that he wants, or really wants, a new war with Ukraine. In this way, you can divert your nation’s attention from economic stagnation, the pandemic, the unpopularity of your ruling party and regime, as well as the poisoning and imprisonment of A. Navaln.
Still, Putin needs to know that a full-scale war with Ukraine is guaranteed to have a negative impact on Russia. The Russians do not want to go to war with the Ukrainians, so any attempt to launch hostilities under the guise of fighting the “Western-backed fascists” may not be very convincing if many Russians lose their lives.
If the new attack faces a united front for democracy and serious sanctions, it could be the beginning of the end of Putin’s reign, Farkas is convinced.
If Russia succeeds in the face of Ukrainian aspirations and international law, Putin will gain the confidence to further expand his corrupt political, economic and military influence in post-Soviet countries and beyond.
“He will certainly try to test NATO’s strength in one of the Baltic states,” Fark said. According to her, attacking or invading a state belonging to the alliance requires a collective military response.
“It is necessary to avoid such a situation. After all, in such a case, the West will face a much greater threat of conflict escalation compared to the current situation in Ukraine,” said the former US undersecretary of defense.
It is also clear that Beijing, Tehran and Pyongyang are monitoring the situation. Meanwhile, China is increasing pressure on Taiwan, the Philippines and other South China Sea neighbors. No one will dissuade this country from exercising a stronger right to seize foreign territory.
“The international order will fall back into the ‘spheres of influence’, as it was before World War II, when competition is at war. And everything will happen in the middle of a pandemic and a climate crisis. Today, more than ever, people need rules and limits to prevent the outbreak of world wars and focus on solving existing global crises with the participation of all states on Earth, ”says Farkas.
The massive army gathering on the border with Ukraine has turned the once-unimaginable idea of US sanctions on Russia’s public debt into a real opportunity for investors, Bloomberg reports.
Yields on ruble bonds, known as OFZ, rose to their highest level in more than a year last week and rose further on Tuesday as the market watched as tensions between Moscow and Washington rose again.
“This significantly increases the threat of OFZ sanctions,” said Paul McNamara, an emerging markets investor at GAM Investments in London. He does not expect a large-scale Russian attack, but acknowledges that “there are many consequences that would be worse than the current situation.”
Before the recent escalation in Ukraine, the administration of US President Biden has already prepared more sanctions for Russia for election interference and software piracy. NATO joined the G7 and the European Union on Tuesday, urging Russia to withdraw.
The OFZ threat of sanctions, often referred to as the “nuclear option,” has been haunting bondholders for years, but after several false alarms, most investors did not see it as a reason to fail. Now everything can change.
Analysts at JP Morgan Chase & Co. downgraded the Russian ruble and bonds last week, citing rising tensions and the risk of US investors closing long positions in OFZ. The Finance Ministry relied on state banks to meet demand during the latest debt auctions, when the sale was canceled due to reduced appetite from foreign buyers.
The Treasury Department is still in 2018. It warned of impending turbulence in the global financial market if Russia’s sovereign debt market is sanctioned, as the Russian market is closely tied to global indices.
Since then, the California Civil Service Pension Plan (Calpers) has cut all of its Russian bonds. Foreigners have capped their market share to just 20 percent, compared to roughly 35 percent. last year, and the Ministry of Finance sold more bonds to locals.
Russian officials say such a move won’t do much damage to Russian financial markets, as local banks and non-US investors will step in and replace those they have been forced to liquidate. The decision to ban US banks from buying new issues of Russian Eurobonds in 2019 practically did not affect the Kremlin’s access to foreign financing.
An even stricter measure, previously discussed in Washington, would be to ban Russian banks from accessing the international financial messaging system used for most international money transfers, a measure that has already been used against Iran. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned last month that Russia must find alternatives to the SWIFT system to make it less vulnerable.
“If this turns into an open military conflict, I would not rule out SWIFT sanctions that would really cause confusion,” said Victor Szabo, fund manager at Aberdeen Asset Management in London.
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