Although Estonia is already taking quarantine releases, the epidemiologist says that this route is not suitable for Lithuania.

In Estonia during the day from January 18. there are restaurants, cafes, exhibitions, museums and some leisure companies. Starting January 25. Contact learning was also renewed at all educational levels.

According to the Oxford University Quarantine Strictness Index, the measures currently applied in Lithuania are the most stringent in the Baltic countries. The Lithuanian index is 70.37, the Latvian index is 57.41, and the Estonian index is 44.44.

It is true that the morbidity situation is also different. According to information published by the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control, the incidence of the coronavirus in Lithuania on February 4 According to the data, there are 533.29 cases per 100,000. population in 14 days, in Latvia – 560.4 and in Estonia – 536.3.

However, epidemiologist Paul Gradeck says that in this case, it would not be necessary to align with Estonia. For his part, Sigismund Mauricas, Luminor’s chief economist, says Lithuania can still afford to continue with such a strict quarantine, but emphasizes that challenges can be faced.

See potential challenges for Lithuania

According to Ž. Maurico, Lithuania’s economic structure is, however, more favorable for crises of this nature, because in the country, unlike Estonia, a smaller part of GDP is generated by the tourism and transport sectors.

But the economist also sees potential challenges.

“The biggest challenge, as I wrote, is that Lithuania may have a relatively larger budget deficit. At least at the beginning of the year. (…) There is a certain danger that we will stand out from the context of the Baltic countries and the Scandinavian countries. Then, there is a corresponding increase in the risk of a little more consolidation of that budget, probably next year’s or 2023 budget. ” Delphi Ž said. Mauricas.

According to him, the probability of a larger budget deficit increases every month.

“Lithuania’s starting position is definitely worse. I am not saying it is not without reason, I am just stating a fact. (…) We are likely to have the largest deficit and the fastest debt growth in the Baltic countries. That threat grows. month by month, ”said the economist.

However, he emphasized that Lithuania was saved by the fact that the main EU economies were also sufficiently restricted.

“We are avoiding the potential threat of emigration. Especially young people, most of whom work in the service sectors and who, with no or very low income, would seek that alternative: go somewhere else, which will be released sooner” , pointed out Ž. Mauricas.

According to him, Lithuania can still afford to continue the quarantine regime until around the beginning of spring or April 1.

“It is still a good enough weather that we can afford. Lithuania costs relatively less quarantine every month than many other countries due to our economic structure. “The economic costs for us are relatively lower than for other countries, but could become higher very soon if processes such as emigration are started,” said the economist.

The deterioration of the epidemiological situation in Lithuania “closed” the population to the second quarantine, which then only hardened, from the beginning of November.

Ž. According to Maurico, it is important to reopen the country’s economy together with other EU countries.

“It is important for Lithuania that we open our economy at the latest in the big EU economy, and ideally even earlier. We must do everything possible to prepare for that opening,” Ž. Mauricas.

Epidemiologist: Estonians are more similar to Finns than Lithuanians in many areas

Delphi Paulius Gradeckas, an infectious disease epidemiologist interviewed, said that Lithuania should not be compared to Estonia in all respects.

According to him, the differences in the management of the pandemic were due to both cultural and management aspects.

“It just came to our knowledge then. This is the same as comparing the Scandinavian countries: on the one hand, they have similar traditions, a similar economic situation, but if we look more deeply at the responses to crises, they react quite the opposite,” he said. Gradeck.

Estonia, as he highlighted, followed the example of Finland in many cases.

“They had a good mass testing system, they had massive tests in all health centers, they had a good infrastructure, they hardly had to create mobile points,” said the epidemiologist.

Mr Gradeck noted that a Public Health Agency had been established in Estonia and that a lot of power had been given to municipalities, which had led to better traceability of their coronavirus cases.

“We still have that very clear centralized model: a department, which is in Vilnius, continues with its divisions. And somewhere we no longer track contacts. The Estonians were able to trace the contacts long enough, ”said the specialist.

He also noted that the good results of infection management may have been influenced by the fact that a large part of the Finnish and Estonian population downloaded and used the contact tracing app, an analogy to the Korona Stop app operating in Lithuania. .

“There are two aspects: you know that the virus is in the environment and you are behaving more responsibly, and an agency that tracks contacts faster does a lot of work,” Gradeck explained.

According to the epidemiologist, Estonians have a different approach to mobility and also have different shopping habits.

“The This time on the trip can be similar to the Lithuanian time, only a Lithuanian visits many more points during the same time. (…) Traditionally, Estonian families, especially those living outside the city, try to buy for a week. It still seems like we’ve broken the chain, we’re trying to go to the store for all sorts of things because that’s the way it is, not because something is missing, ”said Mr. Gradeck.

However, he noted that this is due to cultural reasons, although, according to the expert, Lithuanians should also pay more attention to risk.

“If the mobility data shows that traveling not only to meet friends, but also to places of mass gatherings can be risky, then we have to evaluate that,” said the epidemiologist.

At the same time, he noted that during the new pandemic, countries used different management methods.

“A pandemic is not only a complex problem, complex solutions, but also complex responses. It is not the case that some countries had a miracle antidote to it,” emphasized Mr. Gradeck.

According to the epidemiologist, residents should have a sense of self-protection and not seek to circumvent all applicable restrictions.

Delphi Remember that on Wednesday the government extended the quarantine regime and the restrictions applicable to movement between municipalities until February 28. However, commenting on the subsequent handling of the pandemic, Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė emphasized that the Government would consider possible quarantine releases each week.