All indicators show that the pandemic in Lithuania does not relent: if it continues, it may be necessary to talk about a curfew

“The number of cases increased by 21% last week.” More than the previous week, when this growth was 12%, “says the analysis on which the government bases its decisions.

If quarantine works, that shouldn’t be the case

As can be seen from the analysis, the decline in cases in countries that have introduced quarantine began in the third week.

However, it is not clear if this will happen to us. In most of the municipalities we are seeing an increase in cases and only in a few there is a clear fall ”, the analysis indicates.

Prof. of the Faculty of Public Health of the Lithuanian University of Health Sciences (LSMU), prof. Ramunė Christmas.

“If the quarantine is good, the restriction is correct, it has to start to decrease. Last week, we were already so full of cautious optimism that this is happening. And suddenly we see him dancing again. I mean, something is not right, ”the teacher did not hide.

According to R. Kalėdienė, specialists still “have the secret hope” that growth will slow down in the coming days, but so far it is unlikely that this could happen.

“This is already our third week (quarantine – Delphi). Our analysts have calculated that in the middle of the week we reached a peak and we started to go down. There were dates of November 22-23. It did not happen. We generally do not lend Pay close attention to those weekend drops because fewer people are testing. We always look at the middle of the week and calculate 15-day averages. The fact that a little fewer cases were found one day does not yet indicate that the situation is improving ”, commented the interlocutor.

When asked if such growth could be explained by a mild quarantine, the professor said it was difficult to tell, but it was clear that the epidemic was not slowing down.

“All our predictions have advanced, we say that the maximum, if the quarantine were effective, we would reach it around December 12. This should not be the case if you are quarantined, the restrictions work as they should. I really feel that we have to tighten those restrictions elsewhere, ”said R. Kalėdienė.

Increases and how much a patient infects others

The analysis on which the Government relies compares the situation in Lithuania with that in Ireland, which, according to the review, applies restrictions similar to ours.

“Comparing our numbers with Ireland, which has quarantine measures very similar to ours, its peak was 3 times lower at 1 million. population than ours, so the effect of quarantine will be the fastest ”, says analyst R. Šimaitis.

It is true that the number of new diseases confirmed daily per 1 million. The population of Ireland was and still is much lower than that of Lithuania.

“We see that the introduction of quarantine measures in Ireland or the Czech Republic has really started to reduce the spread of the epidemic. Then look very specifically at what they were doing. In the UK, for example, the number of people gathered was limited to even two, leaving limited time to leave the house. We just look at each of these aspects and think about what we are not doing so that the epidemic does not decrease in our country, ”said R. Kalėdienė about the comparisons.

He also noted that it is not just the number of common active cases or new infections that is growing.

“We see and present our findings to the presidency that the so-called R factor, which so primitively reflects how many people are infected by a patient, has increased significantly.

A week ago, it was almost a unit. Once under the unit, that is when the epidemic begins to subside, which means that it infects less than one. Now it has jumped a lot and that means we can say that quarantine measures don’t work much, ”said R. Kalėdienė.

According to the professor, although the R factor did not change drastically, its curve “has already moved up.” According to the interlocutor, now, even in the most optimistic scenario, it is difficult to expect that the cases will begin to decrease before mid-December, which will probably require additional and tougher measures to achieve it.

Increasingly positive responses

The analysis prepared by the government also shows an increase in the percentage of positive tests. According to the analyst, it is confirmed that almost half of the people who go to the mobile point to experience symptoms have a coronavirus infection.

“The percentage of positive tests increased from 13 to 15.6 percent, and the percentage of positive tests among symptomatic individuals in mobile points is especially high: it reaches almost 40 percent. This percentage was less than 10 percent.

This high percentage of symptoms likely means that if a person is currently experiencing cold-like symptoms, COVID-19 is most likely the cause, while in September other cold-related illnesses were more likely to cause the symptoms. ” by A. Šimaitis.

However, according to Vilnius University (VU) infectologist professor Arvydas Ambrozaitis, the cold season in Lithuania is not over yet. However, he agreed, a significant proportion of people who experienced cold symptoms are likely to actually contract Covid-19.

“The cold season begins in September and now, in my opinion, it continues. But now there has been a sharp increase in the number of Covid-19 cases, which apparently means that the proportion of those positive tests is higher. Based on the symptoms, it is very difficult to distinguish the common cold from covidium, ”said the professor.

A. Ambrozaitis noted that colds are caused by 200 viruses, and now is a very favorable time for them to spread due to weather conditions. He also noted that the flu season will begin in January.

“We learned to be careful around fights, we learned to wear masks, to keep a safe distance, to wear masks. I think it will help control a flu outbreak or an epidemic if it does. But of course vaccines are the most important ”, emphasized the infectologist.

According to data available to the government, the number of patients with Covid-19 is also increasing in all hospitals in the country.

“So we still don’t see the stabilization of the hospital burden.” However, growth in 7 days is less than 14 days, indicating that the flow of patients to hospitals is slowing down. This trend is observed for the second consecutive week. According to the scenarios prepared on Sunday, we can have about 2,000 patients in hospitals at the end of the week, ”predicts the analysis.

If this continues, you will have to think about the curfew.

Commenting on the sharp increase in the number of infections last week, A. Ambrozaitis said it must be recognized that the quarantine is not yet working.

“It just came to our attention then. While there may be another view, without quarantine, the growth would be even higher, exponential. Maybe now it has slowed down, but it still doesn’t work as well as it should. Apparently, not everyone sticks. , people are too active, they move too much ”, considered the professor.

According to him, the current situation shows that the measures that are in force are not yet sufficient.

“It just came to our attention then. There is no stabilization of growth yet. Growth continues,” said A. Ambrozaitis.

When asked which areas he considered the most risky, the interviewee named supermarkets and educational institutions.

“Everything seems more or less regulated, but of course there is a stricter measure: curfew. That would be the last measure that would be introduced,” said the professor. So far, he has not seen the need to do so in Lithuania. But such a need may arise if the situation does not improve in the next two weeks.

“Maybe we should wait another week, the next. If morbidity continues to increase as it has now increased by 21%, if there is no further stabilization, then the introduction of a curfew could be considered. It may be a tougher measure, but we are used to it. hard measures. If you just recommend it, nobody ignores it, “said the professor.

A. Ambrozaitis did not rule out the possibility that the situation could get worse again after Christmas, because the All Souls example shows that Lithuanians do not tend to refrain from staying with relatives.