After another “record” number of cases, the epidemiologist’s message: we are just getting started

Just the beginning

Daiva Razmuvienė, an epidemiologist at the National Center for Public Health (NVSC), said the number of undiagnosed illnesses, while alarming, is manageable.

“Certainly, the currently undetected spread of the virus in society is estimated at only about 20 percent. But the focal spread is easier to manage, but it spreads in nursing homes and treatment facilities. They are easier to manage. , but infections that are undetectable, that 20 percent to prevent it from growing, are alarming. And if that 60 percent is out of control “, D. Razmuvienė named the critical limit.

The epidemiologist said that the number of people under 19 with coronavirus has doubled in recent months.

“It probably won’t work very well,” said D. Razmuvienė, when asked if he would be able to resolve the situation without a whip.

And for those who use protective masks incorrectly, he urged them to remove them completely.

“I think there is a tool that is used to stop the spread of the virus through breathing. If the mask is worn under the nose, it is better not even to damage it. Give it to the person using it. There is a contradiction here with the recommendation and it shows that he does not believe in talking about the virus, ”said D. Razmuvienė.

When asked to name the situation that we will have in Lithuania in about a month, the epidemiologist did not positively outline the future.

“I would like to end on an optimistic note. But the current situation, with 200 new cases registered per day, I think we are starting to have higher morbidity rates in a month. Because relaxation is really observed in society. I don’t know what it should happen so that people realize that this is a serious matter for which there is no cure or vaccine. We can only protect ourselves, “he said on radio news.

Educated recommendations are not enough

Prime Minister Giedrius Surplys’s adviser said on Friday’s “Question of the Day” show that the virus was really scariest in the spring.

“Yes, it was scarier, we did not know what was too beast. We did not know the situation with the vaccine. And now the vaccine may already be in sight in December, maybe in the first half of the year, we were not fully prepared with the health system. It seems that we have reached a point where we have to be very serious, it is no longer enough to ask people to put on the mask correctly or to stay at home, we need instructions, “he said in the program .

So far, no strong national measures are needed, as the number of beds available for coronavirus patients remains sufficient. However, it is approaching a critical threshold.

“So far, that number is about 50 percent of the coronavirus beds occupied, but the critical limit is 70 percent. If young people continue to be successfully infected with the virus and go to their parents and grandparents, we will have occupation of beds on the roof when we have to start thinking. I don’t want to draw an apocalyptic scenario here, “said the prime minister’s adviser. And he promised that in that case very serious measures would have to be taken.

Surplys said current morbidity rates are already those in which educated recommendations are no longer sufficient.

“We have reached a number where it is no longer enough to ask people to act responsibly. The municipalities where the numbers are reaching their peak should be the first concern,” he explained.

When asked to explain why the introduction of measures is left to the municipalities rather than being carried out at the national level, Surplys said the goal was not yet to issue a national quarantine.

“The municipalities have to raise their hands and ask for help. We have to limit contacts, which also implies certain lifestyle restrictions. We don’t have it because the situation is bad in Raseiniai or elsewhere, but do we need to close all the catering establishments here, why do it for the municipality where there is not a single case? “Surplys said.”

In the context of the elections, there are many comments that it is because of them that tough measures are not being taken in the hope of greater voter support. Advisor to Prime Minister Saulius Skvernelis, G. Surplys, explained that this is not the case.

“It is brutally wrong for the coronavirus to arrive in an election year, because it generates unnecessary speculation. Today we had that symbolic day on which the quarantine was supposed to begin. But the Government looks at all Lithuanian municipalities, works with them. At the same time “When you see the vaccine on the horizon, you don’t want to slow down the economy and life, that’s why we are trying to balance. But unfortunately, it is obvious that in some municipalities it is no longer enough,” he explained.

Rules offer nailing to posts

The former member of the European Commission (EC), the politician Vytenis Andriukaitis affirmed that the new instructions to change the epidemiological situation must be decided not by politicians, but by experts.

“It must be in the hands of epidemiologists, in the hands of the services, in the hands of teams of specialists. To make it absolutely clear to everyone as if the light was on in different scenarios. (…) Everything must be clear to the people of that area. It is strange that there are endless discussions, although the decisions and the scenarios must be clear ”, emphasized V. Andriukaitis.

He said on the radio news show that “those rules must be posted on all posts.”

The government explains that national measures are not needed yet due to vacancies in hospitals.

It may not be so bad, Lithuania has enough beds for hospitalization, but it is not logical to look only at them, said V. Andriukaitis.

“Nobody has canceled the pandemic, but we live as for ourselves. It is understandable that the growth of cases is halted. The virus, it is clear, can damage deeper internal organs, what people do not care?” – V. Andriukaitis was surprised.

He said he felt a clear influence of the election on the decisions that are made now.

“It just came to our attention then. Clearly, an effort is being made to applaud that part of the public opinion that believes that such measures are not necessary. It cannot be denied. Therefore, epidemiologists who do not go to the elections must play the first violin here, “said the politician on the program.

One thing is forgotten

Knowledge Radio listeners also had something to say about the current situation. For example, Evaldas claimed that there is currently a “military situation” in Lithuania and everyone has to act.

“We have a military position, all citizens, we have to act as a military position. We are tired, but history says: only the consolidation of all forces can bring victory, we can do it. It is not a card game, so we can relax, “he said on the radio.

Another listener was surprised that everyone was talking about restrictions in cafes.

“I am outraged just because everyone is focused on restaurants, bars, cafes, why no one talks about large supermarkets. Retirees walk after them like zoos, what is happening on the Acropolis, why are the flows out of control? “, He said.

Listener Silverst, in his comment, spoke about the election.

“Elections, the government will do nothing and transfer the responsibility to the municipalities,” he said.

And listener Elena wanted to remind residents of an important point.

“Look at how many comments that the virus does not exist. People do not understand that if they do not protect themselves and spread the virus through other diseases, they simply will not go to hospitals, ”he emphasized.