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“It was terrible,” Mindaugas Stankūnas, a professor at the Faculty of Public Health at the Lithuanian Health Sciences University (LSMU), said of the situation in the second half of December. “I’m not a doctor, I’m a public health professional, but when I talk to the doctors who worked in that hell, they say it’s scary.”
According to the specialist, the message about the coronavirus situation in Lithuania is now somewhat inaccurate.
“It just came to our knowledge then. If you compare it to what it was before Christmas, when the number of cases reached almost four thousand, it is ten times less. This makes us want to see the situation in a very positive light.
However, we must understand that the number of cases in Lithuania is still high. Every day, we detect the coronavirus in almost four hundred more people. If we compare it with Western European countries, say Germany, Finland, Norway, then the number of our cases is still very high. Lithuania is still in the red zone in the global context, ”said M. Stankūnas.
According to the expert, it must be said at this point: “we did a lot, but we were in a very situation.”
“It was said in the press that Lithuania is the number one country in the world in terms of morbidity rates. Now that situation has improved, but it is still not so good. However, the trend is that it is improving, “said M. Stankūnas.
The situation is improving
The coronavirus morbidity situation is improving around the world.
“The World Health Organization (WHO) announces that last week 2.7 million new cases of COVID-19 were identified. This is 16 percent. (Up to 0.5 million cases) less than in the week This weekly decline continues for the sixth week.
It occurs in all regions except the Eastern Mediterranean (according to the WHO classification). It stands out for its growth. However, in Europe, for example, the number of new cases has decreased by 18% compared to the previous week, ”commented M. Stankūnas.
According to the expert, the number of deaths is also decreasing. Globally, it was set at 10% and in the European region at 19%. fewer deaths from coronavirus than the previous week.
However, how fragile this situation is is also demonstrated by the specialist’s emphasis that “such a situation is at this time.”
“When we talk about an epidemic, we have to talk about the current situation all the time. It can change,” said M. Stankūnas.
The situation is changing not only because of vaccines
The specialist was not inclined to attribute the improvement only to vaccines against the coronavirus.
“I don’t think vaccines have already had such a big effect. So far, only Israel has vaccinated a larger group of people. However, if we talk about other countries, those percentages are not high enough.
However, many people are already sick, a part of the population resistant to the virus that has immunity is formed, which makes it difficult for the virus to spread. In addition, several countries apply so-called non-pharmaceutical sanctions and they have an effect. And people, although there is resistance, and we see it in Lithuania, perhaps, they have learned to live with it, they have adapted, ”said M. Stankūnas.
The biggest challenge, according to the specialist, is caused by mutations in the virus.
And there have been rumors in the media that the British variety is much more widespread. The first data are already emerging due to higher mortality. Preliminary data shows that most of the people infected with this variety die, ”said M. Stankūnas.
In addition to the British strain of COVID -19, South African and Brazilian strains of the virus are also known.
“That knowledge is alarming,” said M. Stankūnas.
At the same time, the expert pointed out that the situation is different in different countries.
“In the same European region, we can see countries where the situation is improving rapidly and there are countries where the situation is still difficult or even deteriorating,” said M. Stankūnas.
It is a matter of weeks in which there will be more freedoms
According to the expert, calculations show that if there are no outbreaks, the situation in Lithuania should improve even more.
“I think it is a matter of weeks when there will be more freedom. This week we can already enjoy the open stores and beauty services.
The Council of Experts has drawn up a list of meetings on the opening of various cultural institutions and on sport. This is being discussed, I think there will be more and more of these releases ”, assured M. Stankūnas.
However, he also said that he understood that people’s patience was waning.
“All of us, as well as the members of the Council of Experts, as well as all of Lithuania, are tired of the limitations. I have not seen some of my relatives since September. I missed them very much.
I went to the gym to go to the gym. Now I’m not going, I feel overwhelmed, it makes me nervous. Many of me annoy me. It makes me nervous that I can’t go to a restaurant. Our family traveled every weekend to visit a mound. I have driven more mounds than a statistician Lithuanian. Now I can’t, and I’m terribly nervous about it.
But there is a situation where we don’t have many options. We are very afraid that something unreasonable and perhaps a step too fast could cause a third peak, and then it will be even worse, ”said M. Stankūnas.
He explained the meaning of the script idea.
The quarantine regimes in Lithuania are defined in scenarios A, B, C, D. You can read more about this here.
“Our plan was prepared based on the experience of other countries,” said M. Stankūnas.
One of the countries whose experience impresses the expert, New Zealand, is that it responds quickly and forcefully, but the people there are not forced to live with limitations that last for months, and he has named similar levels.
“They have also said now that Auckland is going to the third level, all the rest of New Zealand is in the second level, and then the mechanisms for the restrictions are being put in place immediately, and people know the system very clearly,” Stankūnas. saying.
According to the expert, the level in Lithuania also arose because people know what to expect and can argue with the opposition.
“When it comes to releases, we know that the virus spreads through human contact. (…) In the first place, we open the services and sectors that we need: food, pharmacy, optics, articles of animal origin. (…)
And, in terms of other things, we keep looking for which institutions are also needed and which ones could provide services without increasing the risk of infection, ”said M. Stankūnas.
Among those examples, the expert mentioned small businesses that receive few visitors and where people can be served with security measures.
“I think the small stores could have opened a little earlier, because if their employees, owners, meet the requirements, they can function and the risk of infection is low,” said M. Stankūnas.
This specialist was one of those who expressed doubts at the Board of Experts about whether the resumption of beauty services should not be postponed for another week.
“I understand that people really want these services, but there are still studies showing that in the beauty services sector, the risk of infecting oneself and infecting others is higher,” said M. Stankūnas.
According to the expert, a meeting with people from the cultural sector is scheduled for next week.
“Then you listen, because people come, talk about discussion. Then you start to think that maybe we don’t really appreciate something,” said M. Stankūnas.
There is a discussion about masks.
There is a discussion among experts about the requirement to wear masks outdoors. The Council of Experts will return to this issue next week.
“The requirement to wear masks outdoors will remain, but will remain such that they will be required where there are crowds, such as at bus stops.
We are now required to wear masks if there are people around for at least 20 years. distance. We believe that 20 m. it’s too much. However, we cannot guarantee one hundred percent that the distance of two meters is sufficient, (…) but based on the principle of rationality, we say that this distance must be reduced ”, said M. Stankūnas.
The experts, having summarized the scientific material, already hope to present specific wording for the proposed decision on the requirement to wear masks outdoors at the next Council meeting.
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