A pandemic was foreseeable, but the world ignored it: predicting when everything should fall into place.

There is a small chance that the virus will just go away

With the outbreak of the coronavirus in Europe, scientists and epidemiologists have begun to say that the world will no longer be what it used to be and that this new virus will remain for a long time. According to prof. Mr. Usonis, it is still difficult to say exactly whether we will really have to live with COVID-19 for the rest of our lives.

“We only see the virus since December, now in the summer, activity should decrease, in the fall coronavirus activity generally increases. There is a very real possibility that activity will decrease in summer and increase in autumn. Also, if you We observe historically, various bacteria, viruses and microorganisms are constantly changing, it is a natural process, “said Professor V. Usonis.

So, according to the doctor, there is little hope that the virus will simply go away one day.

“It would be very nice if I took it and it disappeared. This happened in 2003-2004, when SARS started to spread and then disappeared. It would be nice if you got the idea to do it. But looking back, 2002 was a time of Great work on both vaccines and medicines, but the virus disappeared and those works stopped. Drugs and vaccines are also developing intensively. But for it to really disappear, the possibilities are not high, “said the doctor.

There is still a long way to go before the vaccine is available to everyone

Currently, according to the professor, there are 7 centers in the world that have already begun research on the vaccine in humans. After all, many stages of this process must be overcome to develop vaccines. Initially, theoretical research is required, followed by a search for candidates to test the vaccine, preclinical studies in mathematical models, even with laboratory animals.

“Then it is time to try with people, now this stage has arrived. Let’s see what happens. The WHO predicts that vaccines could be registered in 2021 if that work is successful. The next step is to register the vaccine and its production. We have many examples where the production of a vaccine is limited due to limited production capacity. It is not the case that something was overturned overnight and the vaccine was brought to all of us, “said the professor. V. Usonis.

Furthermore, the logistics work of the vaccine already produced also takes a long time: vaccines must be packaged, stacked, delivered, distributed to medical institutions, vaccination offices, staff and methodological material must be prepared.

“The scenario that 60 percent should get sick. Populations are realistic enough to prevent recurrence of outbreaks. If 60-70 percent. Human immunity, the spread of the virus as it stands now would be halted. It is well known. for other infections too. If vaccinated and vaccinated 60-70%. society, there should not be an outbreak like now, “said the interlocutor.

Therefore, as long as there is no vaccine, the measures that are already in force remain. This includes isolation, especially for those at risk: the elderly and those with chronic illnesses, physical distance, and protective measures.

The most important question is whether immunity develops

Alvydas Laiškonis, a professor and infectologist at the Lithuanian University of Health Sciences, also emphasizes that scientists are still searching for answers to several questions so far.

“One possibility is that the virus may mutate a little bit and then after a while we will get rid of it.” The most important question right now is whether immunity develops. So far, no major epidemiological studies have been conducted as reinfection cases are already being recorded, “said Prof. A. Laiškonis.

The third thing of concern is asymptomatic forms, when a person feels nothing, but can infect others.

“Currently, the time to take the tests is quite long, so French scientists, as well as Americans, are trying to create tests with a very fast response in half an hour.” Imagine what’s wrong when you also need to admit planned patients to the hospital and have them test for coronavirus beforehand. A person who arrives one day must return and arrive the next day, “said the interlocutor.

Therefore, according to the professor, new research would solve this problem and many other organizational problems.

“At this time, no one can say whether the immunity created by the vaccine will be long or short term and how it will work.” No data is available yet, as the first studies were started in volunteers. But historically, it was a year or even a dozen before the vaccine was developed. If we want the vaccine in 6-8 months, we want everything very quickly. Any result will be – still not possible to answer, “said Professor. A. Laiškonis.

Probably nobody in the world has thought that one day life will stop so much and that travel will be interrupted. Many people now wonder: will we ever be able to travel the way we used to?

“I think we can. I always follow the example of the Spanish flu, the so-called ispanke of 1918-1920. Then the world also stopped, although of course there was a different economy, a different way of life and similar things at the time. But in 3 years it was all over, in 1931 the flu virus cleared up, later he developed a vaccine and the flu is no longer that problem for us, the doctor said.

– I really believe that scientists will be able to create a vaccine or change the virus itself, because now there is much more technology, genetic engineering. One wants to believe that the world will still domesticate this virus. But we will definitely have to live with him for a while. “

Second, according to prof. R. Laiškonis, it is very important that people understand that the entire course of the virus depends on the behavior of each one of us.

“There are asymptomatic forms. Even if the quarantine is relaxed, we must be careful,” said the infectologist.

The professor assures that the day will definitely come when the virus will be defeated

Compared to other countries, according to the professor, Lithuania is easily guided by the coronavirus.

“Italy, Spain and France are much more difficult. In my opinion, Lithuanians are more disciplined than southerners, because quarantine is worse for them than death. Their way of life is different. The French themselves say they cannot live. no strikes, wine and cheese. I think we’ll get used to it, we’ll learn a little bit, “said the teacher. A. Laiškonis.

However, the interlocutor emphasizes that there is nothing wrong that does not go well.

“Maybe the antiviral movement will decrease. The problem is with measles, the number of cases is increasing again because parents are no longer vaccinating children and vaccines cannot be stopped. Perhaps the world realizes, however, that vaccines are a great illumination, and the germs will be both before and after us. It is the changing part of living nature, man can defeat them, deceive them. Now we have to live that period ”, said the professor.

– I really think that someday this virus will disappear or be defeated. I just don’t know if there will be any other new viruses. In 25 years, the world has discovered 45 new diseases. We have tropical areas, several other places where several lives have not yet been elucidated. And when a person gets there and faces a new virus, it goes without saying that he reacts strongly and to the detriment of the person. “

According to prof. A. Laiškonis, smallpox disappeared due to vaccines in Lithuania, although the last case was in Kaunas in 1939.

“We have reduced many diseases with the help of vaccines. Therefore, I believe that the same will happen with COVID-19,” said the interlocutor.

Epidemiological studies could predict such outbreaks.

When asked if outbreaks such as coronaviruses could be epidemiologically predicted, the professor replied that little attention was paid to this.

“You see, I think there is a problem here. The world slept very peacefully after the Spanish flu and World War II, when there were major shocks. And we invested very little money in wildlife research. We have invested significantly more in the industry military, in everything else, and now we have the result that microbes can occur anywhere, “said the infectologist.

– For example, Ebola fever in 2014. It emerged, was abolished, and ended. Also, remember that the world is very different, there are places in Asia or Africa where there are very few funds for medical care. There is a hatchery of all the microorganisms unknown to us. “

According to the interlocutor, it is to be hoped that the day will soon come when we will return to living as we were used to.

“I think the world will realize after this shock that much more attention needs to be paid to science, nature, its research, but not dealt with it drastically.” And then we will really live as we used to live, “said the doctor.