A new wave of coronavirus anxiety in the world: the key now is not to awaken the threat in the shadows

The COVID-19 pandemic “continues to gain momentum” around the world. “The last million cases were registered in just eight days,” WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said on Monday, June 22, as quoted by the French website Le Monde.

“We know that a pandemic is much more than a health crisis. It is also an economic, social and, in several countries, political crisis. We will feel its impact for decades,” he said at a virtual conference in Dubai.

The WHO chief urged governments and societies to prepare for possible future pandemics that “could occur in any country at any time and without preparing to kill millions.”

“We don’t know where and when another pandemic will occur, but we do know that it will have a major impact on life and the economy,” he warned.

The virus covers new areas.

Professor Mindaugas Stankūnas of the Faculty of Public Health of the Lithuanian University of Health Sciences (LSMU) does not believe that the second wave of coronavirus is already circulating around the world.

“It just came to our attention then. We see that the virus was in Europe, now the number of new cases is declining, and even in the United States, there is no growth as crazy as it was a few weeks ago.

All of this is now reaching South America (Brazil, Mexico, Chile) and the Asian region (India, Bangladesh, Pakistan). These are huge countries. 1.4 billion in India alone, 220 million in Pakistan and 164 million in Bangladesh. population. We should also bear in mind that Bangladesh, for example, is the country with the highest population density. There are excellent conditions for the spread of infection there, “said M. Stankūnas.

The scientist predicts that in a month he will receive calls from journalists and will have to talk about big problems in Africa.

“So far there are not that many cases, only around 5% of all. New cases are registered in Africa. But if we look at individual countries, such as the Republic of South Africa, it is already in the Top 10 in terms of the number of newly diagnosed cases in one day, “said M. Stankūnas.

According to the researcher, the biggest challenge for this continent is that there are completely different healthcare resources there than here.

Let’s say we have almost 1000 artificial lung ventilators in Lithuania, which are necessary for the successful treatment of this disease. Meanwhile, the entire African region (i.e. 41 countries) has just 2,000 such devices.

There is also, for example, a Democratic Republic of the Congo, formerly Zaire, even before a former Belgian colony (you probably read how the monument to Leopold II, who treated the Congolese very badly, was decorated in Brussels). That Congo now houses more than 100 million people. people, and they only have 5 artificial lung ventilation devices, “said M. Stankūnas.

WHO is reluctant to talk about the second wave

The LSMU professor noted that the rumors about the second wave were related to a statement by one of the South Korean officials.

“But on Monday, I also listened to a WHO summit, which said that South Korea might have exaggerated a bit.” The number of new cases in South Korea is clearly related to certain outbreaks. As far as I know, a fireplace was set up in Seoul, a table tennis club, and then someone from that tennis club went to church and spread some cases. Cases were also found in a company that was engaged in home delivery of goods at various nightclubs.

However, the WHO has stated that South Korea is doing very well. “They identified all the hot spots, established and followed up on contacts, and WHO leaders believe there will be no outbreak such that the entire country should be closed,” said M. Stankūnas.

As for the second wave, Iran is often mentioned. However, the scientist there would also be reluctant to identify the situation there as a second wave.

“This is an increase due to certain decisions by the Iranian government. Iran had around 32,000 in early April. Cases. Since then, that level has been steadily declining. A month later, in early May, the number of active cases had decreased dramatically, reaching only about 12 thousand cases, but then, as of May 3, they began to grow very strongly.

This is explained by the fact that the Iranian authorities opened mosques in early May. Oh, of course, a closed space, a long time together, are risk factors. In addition, schools opened in mid-May, ”taught M. Stankūnas.

The LSMU professor noted that similar trends are observed in Ukraine.

“There was a small number in Ukraine. The lowest number of cases was on June 1, reaching just over 300 cases. Then they started to lay off the economy, in early June they started going to restaurants, cafes, houses of prayer, and last weekend, June 19, there were the highest number of new cases per day, that is, 921 new cases, ”said M. Stankūnas.

There are no preconditions for relaxation.

Lithuania, with its new number of COVID-19 cases detected, seems like a quiet haven. Only two new cases were detected on Tuesday and three on Monday. The quarantine in the country was lifted on June 16, but the country still has a statewide emergency regime.

“On Tuesday we had only two new cases in Lithuania. It’s a lot of fun. From the examples from other countries, we can see that mitigation works really well, because people will ‘run the roof’ out of quarantine, but if we act irresponsible, we will not protect ourselves, we will have that second peak very soon. That virus is now controlled, calm, in the shade of a tuna, but any stupid act can cause a breakthrough, “said M. Stankūnas.

Daiva Razmuvienė, an epidemiologist and chief specialist at the National Center for Public Health (NVSC), shared similar ideas. She said that the coronavirus had not disappeared anywhere, so there was still no reason to relax. The specialist noted that the WHO chief has even pointed this out a few times in the recent period.

“The WHO chief also announced a couple of weeks ago that the number of cases has increased a lot every day, which has not been the case since the start of the pandemic.” Two weeks later, the announcement that the number has increased again, the daily result since the start of the pandemic, is very high. The virus is circulating in the world, in Europe, as well as in Lithuania.

Regardless of the quarantine release options provided, let us not forget that we are nonetheless receptive. Because the proportion of people who get sick is very small, there is still great uncertainty about acquiring immunity in general (how long can it last, how long, and for whom can it develop). So now we should not relax, knowing that the number of coronavirus cases continues to increase worldwide, “said D. Razmuvienė.

According to the expert, now the hot spots of COVID-19 are the United States (USA), the South American countries.

“In Europe, the number of cases is also increasing in countries like Sweden, Portugal and the United Kingdom. Now we are also hearing about the outbreak in Germany. Yes, there are chimneys” in progress “, but those chimneys are numerous. Let’s say there are more than a thousand positive cases in northern Germany, and the numbers are also growing in Portugal and the UK Perhaps those outbreaks are focal everywhere, but the people registered in those outbreaks have a personal life: home, relatives ” said D. Razmuvienė.

The specialist noted that also in Lithuania, if in the past more cases of illness were registered in health care institutions, in the last period they were registered in more homes and work environments.

“We see that people long for both vacations and events. When recommendations are not followed, especially regarding distance and longer communication, it allows the virus to spread, “said D. Razmuvienė.

Some Asian countries are reverting to measures that have already been tested.

The specialist noted that South Korea, although the number of cases is not large, is already taking action.

“There are also very few patients in Beijing, China, about 140 people, but several provinces are already closed. They are trying that a new wave has arrived. It is difficult to say now whether the virus is really restarting or if the number of patients has simply decreased. “said D. Razmuvienė.

According to experts, there are scientists, for example, in Italy, who say that the virus itself has mutated and is already spreading in a lighter form. However, the WHO strongly argues that there is no scientific evidence to support this.

“South Korea and other forks predicted a second wave in the fall or winter.” But, as epidemiologists in some countries say, that conversation is like a spell, because you cannot predict how the virus will behave. We see it today, “said D. Razmuvienė.

According to the expert, as long as there is no vaccine or specific treatment, countries that struggle with a second wave will return to take the same strict measures as the first time.

“They say the new wave of disease started because people who were tired of quarantine relaxed after the restrictions were lifted, which could have led to the virus spreading again. There is already experience on how to proceed, which is why the same restrictive measures are being applied now: flights, schools, public events are closing and the same recommendations are being disseminated again. However, it is now easier to recommend and accept the public, since it has existed for two or three months. People are used to it and scientists know what to recommend, “said D. Razmuvienė.

There is a lot of hope in the vaccine.

The hopes of many countries that the situation will achieve a breakthrough are linked to the advent of the vaccine. NVSC epidemiologist D. Razmuvienė said many countries are conducting research on vaccines.

“Researchers from the University of Oxford promise that we could have the vaccine as soon as this fall. Human clinical trials are already underway, with vaccines. That test takes a long time because it requires not only that the person be vaccinated, but that their condition will continue to be monitored, if all goes well, the vaccine may already reach the population this year.

The European Commission has prepared application plans for the vaccine to reach each country. If it appears, it will be approved, registered, everything will be fine, maybe this year it will also reach Lithuania, ”said D. Razmuvienė.

Young people have been the most affected by the crisis.

The Center for Human Studies, together with the public opinion research company Baltijos tyrimai, carried out a study on the emotional state of the Lithuanian population during the quarantine. Head of the Center for Human Studies dr. Gintaras Chomentauskas assumed that Lithuania, as a state, in the first stage may have already learned not to cause unnecessary panic in cases where it is necessary to mobilize.

“The mobilization has now been accomplished through increased incitement to fear (what will happen) and disciplinary action. If we were to reuse all that old bullying arsenal, the consequences would be even more dramatic than what we had now, “said G. Chomentauskas.

Research has shown that young people (18-29 years) are the most emotionally vulnerable to such a situation.

“They may not have experienced as many different events in their lives, they may not be completely independent in their thinking, and they tend to mimic what is going on around them, both in terms of fashion and emotion. However, in the case of Second wave, other groups in society would undoubtedly be negatively affected, for example, during our research, we noticed that the impact of this crisis is greater for women, “said G. Chomentauskas.

The head of the center pointed out that in the first month of the first study, people aged 50 to 74 were the most anxious.

But soon they looked around, their brains became critical thoughts, and their emotional lives quickly normalized. Meanwhile, for the youngest, it seems that their imagination did not serve their interests: they started creating slime, without analyzing what they really are, “said G. Chomentauskas.

It also calls on decision makers to draw conclusions

During the quarantine, the specialist lacked an objective assessment of the situation by decision makers.

“If we look at how many people are sick and sick every day, there are many more than at the beginning of the quarantine, but we are not only scared about it, but we have opened many opportunities for activities and communication. I hope that the organizers of the anti-virus policy be more open to objective information and don’t solve everything through the prism of prohibitions and intimidation, “said G. Chomentauskas.

According to research carried out on SARS, in the case of Ebola epidemics, the specialist predicted that the impact of the first wave of diseases on the psychological well-being of people could have repercussions in the future.

“It is because emotion is not just a rapidly changing experience. Emotion occurs when we begin to make sense of the environment in some way. Let’s say if we make the environment meaningful and threatening, it is never safe to communicate with a person, or that it is only a virus or, as one of my clients says, “for me, going out is the same as dying”, so in this case we hear not only emotion, we hear a certain perception of the environment, a new That doesn’t change that fast and causes other emotional reactions, “taught G. Chomentauskas.

According to the specialist, changing such a terrifying form of meaning requires the efforts of both the individual and society.

“Society is interested in rational behavior, it is not interested in panicked people,” said G. Chomentauskas.

The specialist does not believe that the threat of the virus can increase the number of people who experience post-traumatic stress disorder or other similar disorders. However, he did not rule out the possibility of an increase in suicides.

“Suicides would not surprise me, because there is a higher rate of impotence and despair. This is often accompanied by a depressed mood, which also increases during the coronavirus quarantine. Those that accompany emotional things are also the causes of suicide. .

For post-traumatic syndromes and other similar things, I would be very skeptical because we have had no direct contact with experiences that are beyond the limits of normal human experience. We have heard more about it, we have seen such things on television screens than we have experienced ourselves, “said G. Chomentauskas.

There were those who rushed with all their might to live in the present time.

Speaking about changes in the consumption of the population in the post-quarantine period, the specialist noted that, generally, when there is enthusiasm, sales also increase.

“I have heard from colleagues that there are changes in the real estate market, when people buy more cottages, a second living space or luxury things, like a boat or the like. Some people have probably solved their existential problems, and they see that the Life needs to be lived today, not once, that part will probably not stop consumption (even realizing there may be a second wave), even the opposite. But overall, consumption will probably decrease, “said G. Chomentauskas.

At the same time, research shows a positive change in the number of people who feel calm since the beginning of the quarantine.

“Introverts are probably happy because they need less communication and can work from home. But at the same time, it shows that people have found a way to come to terms with themselves, their loved ones, and how to spend their time,” said G. Chomentauskas.

The situation is quite different from that of spring.

Nerijus Mačiulis, chief economist at Swedbank, believes that to control the spread of the virus, the question of whether another local or larger-scale quarantine would be imposed on the economy.

“Any country in the eurozone can quarantine of any duration and severity with the kind of response measures taken by the European Central Bank and national governments. After all, money is basically printed, huge sums are borrowed and with their help (through direct payments, tax benefits, state investments) maintains economic activity, ”said N. Mačiulis.

The economist summarized that there is no shortage of money in the eurozone. The crucial question is whether the states would reintroduce the type of quarantine and the measures to stop the spread of the virus they took this spring.

“The answer is probably no. This is very clearly indicated by all states. Why not, even seeing the second waves in many parts of the world? Quarantine was necessary to stop large numbers of suddenly ill people who could not be received and protected by health authorities.

Now, after the first wave, health care institutions are ready, they have capabilities, experience, protection measures, much bigger fans, which are measures that many countries did not have enough before the first wave of the pandemic, “he said. N. Mačiulis.

At the same time, the economist found that residents, businesses are also adaptable and know that the increased risk of spreading the virus will require masks, shields, distances from stores, and other gathering places.

“It means that we already have the experience to stop the virus without stopping the economy. This is the path that seems to be chosen by all the countries of the European Union. Probably after preparing, adapting, acquiring protective measures, gaining experience, the second wave of virus spread would be handled in a completely different way, if it reached us, ”said N. Mačiulis.

The only instrument to stop the economy that an economist would imagine as possible in the case of a second wave would be border controls, which would limit the entry of the virus into the country.

“All other measures, such as the closure of trade and service sites, are less likely,” said N. Mačiulis.

Not only the vaccine is important, but also effective medications

The economist said that the question of not only a vaccine but also effective drugs to combat the effects of the disease is important from an economic point of view.

“The dexamethasone study, published last week, is also a very important discovery that makes the virus less fearful.” Because even if the virus spreads greatly, it can reduce its consequences and mortality, it is natural for opportunity costs to decrease, and then not necessarily apply very strict measures to stop the economy and life, “said N. Mačiulis.

According to the economist, not many people expect the vaccine to be available to everyone this year.

“Even in the optimistic scenario, if it were invented and paid for later this year, it would only be available to the general public in the second half of next year.” This means that we will live another year with the inventions and drugs that we have now. In other words, we will fight the consequences of the diseases caused by the virus and we will not stop the spread of the virus with the help of a vaccine, at least for the moment, “said N. Mačiulis.

Squash: such strict measures are not planned

The government has a plan to deal with the second wave of COVID-19, says Prime Minister Saulius Skvernelis. According to him, such strict economic austerity measures, which were applied after the introduction of quarantine in March, are not planned to be applied across the country, it would work with separate outbreaks of the virus, BNS wrote.

“I think a lot of people would behave a little differently because we had painful lessons, across Europe and the world, about governance, about detection, about behavior itself, both in society and in our preventive management of the pandemic ” (…) These would be separate localized foci: cities, districts, possibly counties. We would work with the targets, if there really was a chimney and it spread, we would have to use the maximum means of closure again, ”S. Skvernelis told News Radio.

He stressed that the most effective preventive measure for coronavirus remained “lack of social contact and compliance with certain rules of personal hygiene.”

“We should do the same in the future, but I think we are really talking about localized chimneys now, what is happening now (…) Such a plan is in place, I hope it is not even used, but we have to be ready” , said. S. Skvernelis.