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At that time, the current situation in Lithuania, despite the fact that isolated cases of the “delta” variety have been recorded in the country, is gratifying.
“The number of cases, the proportion of positive tests and the number of hospitals are decreasing. We are now in a controlled stage of the epidemic, which is very gratifying to see. We are moving rapidly towards Scenario A,” said the scientist. of Vaidotas Zemlys-Balevičius data in the Delfi rytas program.
The alarming news is that vaccination activity is declining.
“Based on how many people were vaccinated with the first dose, compared to the last three weeks, it has been reduced by about half. The total dose intake is comparable, which means that people are vaccinated again. But there are problems with that first dose. It is not possible to select a specific age group, there is simply a general decrease, “said V. Zemlys-Balevičius.
In his opinion, more could be done to encourage people to get vaccinated.
“Vaccination has dropped, and looking at the experience of other countries with the” delta “option, I think we will not see its full effect in the summer, but we will see it in the fall.
Experience in other countries shows that we will need large numbers of people on two doses to cope with the delta option in the fall. If we get figures like 40 or 50 percent, there will be problems, ”said V. Zemlys-Balevičius.
He proposes that health strategists calculate how much a fourth wave quarantine will cost us and allocate at least some of that money to encourage people to get vaccinated.
A full vaccination is required
The data scientist notes that it takes two doses of the vaccine for the vaccine to be effective in helping the delta variety.
“We cannot afford to get vaccinated when the situation is bad because … you need two doses. If the hospitals close, we will only see the effect in four weeks. This is not good, efforts must be made to avoid it. They already exist. communication problems about how to reach people and how to explain the benefits of vaccination, ”said V. Zemlys-Balevičius.
Be on the lookout for varieties that are spreading
The data scientist does not believe that the problem of the “delta” variety is inevitable.
“The African and British varieties are dangerous, but they have not spread. That is to be thankful for. This means that we are doing something right,” said V. Zemlys-Balevičius.
At the same time, the data scientist noted that two cases of the “delta” variety registered in Vilnius were identified in people who were ill at the end of May.
“If the extent of the ‘delta’ variant exists, it is not large enough,” said V. Zemlys-Balevičius.
At the same time, the interlocutor of the program pointed out that, in general, the number of cases has decreased, which makes it possible to explain what this type of covid is in all identified cases.
“It just came to our notice then. The more cases we drop, the better starting positions we will have and the more time we will have to make a decision.
If we see that the delta dominates, it will be a serious sign that we will have big problems in autumn, because the delta dominates in Lithuania. So far, it is clear from the cases we have that he is just beginning his life with us. It means that we are still “buying” the time during which we can make decisions, “said V. Zemlys-Balevičius.
Criticize the ministry’s deliberations on student testing
The data researcher was critical of the deliberations of the Ministry of Education, Science and Sport to leave only one recommendation for students to try starting in the fall.
He explained that tests are needed when there is a high level of epidemic.
“If we have scenarios A, B, then we cannot test. Although the data shows that open schools contribute to the increase in the level of the epidemic, other means can help. If the level of the epidemic exceeds two hundred cases (per 100,000 inhabitants), there will be no security.
The fact that the Ministry of Education only thinks of recommendations and not mandatory tests is disturbing news. I don’t understand why we give up that we already tried things that work. We are talking about the safety of children, “said V. Zemlys-Balevičius.
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