A data scientist on a possible control of the situation: it won’t be before August

V. Zemlys – Balevičius explained on the “Delfi rytas” program that the first signs are showing that the situation in Vilnius is beginning to improve. However, the situation remains tense in another part of the country.

“It is bad that Vilnius has recovered, but growth is increasing in another part of Lithuania. In the past, Vilnius used to transport all of Lithuania with the number of cases, and now Vilnius passes the baton to others and goes to rest. The problem is that with such numbers and such percentages, we will still not see a deal with the epidemic. We will see that it will accelerate, but even if the numbers drop by 20 percent, they are so high that in a month, two more (we will wait, aut . P.) before that normal life, “explained the data scientist.

When asked what led to this situation in the capital, he considered that there are more vaccines and an adequate assessment of the situation.

“Vilnius has received more vaccines, we have seasonality. (…) In Lithuania, if you look closely, images from all over the world tend to work. In India, for example, now we have a very poor situation, we already have some freedom, we we have relaxed, but now sobriety has returned. Cases do not change, surrounded by stories about sick people. Since there have already been freedoms, it is also thought that perhaps a little protection is needed. Here is just a guess, we do not have the data for that. But this could be one of the reasons, “said V. Zemlys-Balevičius.

The interlocutor of the program said that “we are currently moving towards a normal reconciliation with the virus.”

“The Vilnius numbers are not miraculously good. In 14 days, the number is 1000, it oscillates around 10 percent, it is not that much. We go to that normal reconciliation with the virus. We will probably live at a similar rate. I don’t know if those The numbers of the epidemic will actually decrease. Because there are a lot of things here: some people quarantine themselves, get vaccinated and others do what they do. That increased morbidity comes from people who think there is no virus. Since there are not many people like that, the morbidity from those numbers will also be sufficient, “he said.

V. Zemlys-Balevičius said that the epidemic revealed that there are significant problems with data collection. However, currently available data suggests that more and more people are entering hospitals due to the coronavirus.

“We can say that younger people are sick now and 4 of those deaths in 14 days are in the age group of 30 to 40 years. Younger people get sick more easily, they can be saved in resuscitation. Once again, we have the situation that how good it is that we live in a country where a developed medical system, access to oxygen everywhere is possible. Let’s see what happens in India, where all hospitals are oxygen-free, “said the data scientist.

According to data provided by the Statistics Department on May 10, some 800,000 people received at least one dose of the vaccine. population of the country. V. Zemlys-Balevičius was surprised on Monday on the “Delfi rytas” program that he was afraid to change this system.

“It just came to our attention then. The more we vaccinate, the better. It is unfortunate that our outreach strategies have scared ours away, even though they are ahead of the number of people who received the first vaccination in Canada, Finland and Germany. chose that extension strategy. (Po) In a year, we will see articles where that strategy was perfectly appropriate, but for some reason we don’t want to read those articles, ”explained the data scientist.

Delfi recalls that last week V. Zemlys-Balevičius requested an extension of the time between 2 doses of the vaccine so that as many people as possible received at least the first dose of the vaccine.

“This will mark the moment when we will overcome that epidemic,” commented the data scientist on the decision not to extend the time.

The warm weather, the opening of the Passport of Opportunities and the relief of quarantine make breathing easier. What kind of summer can the data scientist consider during the “Delfi rytas” program?

“You have to dream of summer, everyone needs to rest, because it was a difficult year. It will only be with restrictions. If we keep the same numbers that we have now, we will see in the course of what they will be. In Spain, for example, the state of emergency has been lifted because the number of cases has dropped. And in Lithuania we managed that instead of handling that epidemic normally, we relax and we relax, we forgive, and those numbers are therefore high. Because of them, we now have to wait for them to fall before we can relax. This summer will be with some restrictions, which will depend on the situation, “said the interviewer of the program.

V. Zemlys-Balevičius said that we can expect a decrease in the numbers in July-August.

“If we talk about July-August, although we probably cannot vaccinate that 70 percent of society before Mindauginiai, we may be able to vaccinate in August. Perhaps then we can say that we cannot protect ourselves against the virus because there is no virus, the level is very low. Maybe that’s the case, but looking at the numbers and trends, we can’t talk about it in early August, “said V. Zemlys-Balevičius on the” Delfi rytas “program.