Lithuania’s unpredictable neighbor: what else can Lithuania expect from Belarus?

Viktor Babaryka, considered Lukashenko’s main rival in the elections, was arrested this month on suspicion of financial crime, and the next day the president announced that his government had thwarted the plan by foreign forces to incite a popular uprising in Belarus. The head of the election campaign for presidential candidate Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, her husband, and popular video blogger Sergei Tikhanovsky are also incarcerated.

At the same time, Belarus continues to experience the consequences of the coronavirus pandemic that has spread to the country since February: according to official statistics, 65.6 thousand people have been infected with coronavir in Belarus since then. 485 people have officially died, although few believe those figures, given that Lukashenko himself actively opposed the use of quarantine measures, publicly questioned the existence of the coronavirus, mocked its threat by offering treatment with a sauna, vodka and tractor, and denied COVID deaths. -19 done. The president not only enjoyed the unique attitude of his country, but for the first time demonstrated his image of “leader who does not visit other countries”.

Instead of an unpleasant subject, Lukashenko faces one of the largest and most pompous ceremonies: the commissioning of the Astrava nuclear power plant. This should symbolize the proof of Belarus’s energy independence. Paradoxically, according to experts, despite the performance created by A. Lukashenko, the opposite is true, which should be of particular concern to Lithuania.

The borders for the virus and the desire to travel are not obstacles.

Even a month ago, Belarus’ biggest threat could have been rampant coronavirus. Since the first outbreaks in February, the morbidity curve has increased and has been consistently high since April, with around 600-800 new cases per day.

The registration was officially reached on April 29, when 973 cases were registered. With the first wave of the global coronavirus pandemic in Europe, the opening of borders in the Schengen area has finally begun to be considered, and the opening of the EU’s external borders has been proposed since July 1. The Belarusians themselves made no secret that they were particularly anxious about it.

“Vilnius has always been an important city for Belarusians. The reasons are historical and geographic and no pandemic will change that. Dozens of people in my circle of friends are only waiting for the borders to open when they can come,” said Kirilas Atamančikas, an entrepreneur. Belarusian working and living in Lithuania, who said in June that hundreds of thousands of Belarusians flocked to Lithuania each year before quarantine, however, with the closure of the border with Belarus, the flow was interrupted and the opening with The neighboring country promised on July 1 did not take place, with 306 new cases of coronavirus registered in Belarus that day, according to the latest data, on July 17, 159 cases of infection were confirmed.

The interlocutor did not hide that he did not like the fears of Lithuania, which closed the border with Belarus, about “contagious Belarusians”, and after publishing the list of 45 countries at risk, K. Atamančikas said that he could not hide his smile when he saw Andorra on the list.

True, after the quarantine was lifted, laid-back Lithuania received several alarm calls that an outbreak could occur at any time. The most serious advance was recorded in Kaunas this week, where coronavirus infection (COVID-19) was confirmed for employees of the logistics company UAB Hegelmann Transport of Uzbekistan. In total, up to 18 people were infected. No less disturbing was the threat that an Uzbek would go out into the city and infect others if he did not receive what he believed was adequate help. Prime Minister Saulius Skvernelis, who reacted strongly to this, warned that such threats would not be tolerated and announced that the procedure for the arrival of foreigners in Lithuania would be improved.

Therefore, it is hardly worth waiting for in the near future it will hardly be worth reaching Lithuania from third countries, including Belarus, as before. It is true that K. Atamančikas pointed out that during the quarantine many Belarusians went to Lithuania and there was nothing terrible about it.

“When you cross the border, the virus does not attack you suddenly. The rules must be the same: a Belarusian cannot be more contagious than Lithuanian or Swedish, more than a Pole. If only returning Lithuanian citizens from third countries recommends that you isolate yourself, so the same rules should apply to everyone – after all, the virus does not select victims based on their nationality.

And the fact that it is not possible to go to Lithuania across the border is a myth. You can, if there is a reason, just need an extra piece of paper. The problem is that people don’t know this and choose a longer route, ”said K. Atamančikas, citing the route through Latvia as an example: some Belarusians arrived in Lithuania in June via the northern neighbor of Lithuania, where more lenient quarantine conditions were applied, after entering Latvia, and After the latter abolished border controls with Lithuania in early June, cars with Belarusians were able to reach Vilnius without any disturbances.

However, even at the time, Atamanchik admitted that no one believes the official data from the Belarusian authorities on coronavirus statistics, although this may also apply to other countries. Furthermore, much depends both on the number of tests and on the method of calculation and presentation of the information.

Reactors and cigarettes fall at a nuclear power plant

This criterion is important not only for the coronavirus in Belarus, but also for the government’s approach to security in general, both for itself and for its neighbors. When the coronavirus wave subsided, Lithuania again recalled another threat from Belarus: the Astrava nuclear power plant.

At the Astravas NPP opposition rally held under the presidency this week, once again there were demands from Lithuanian leaders and officials to do more and put pressure on Belarus over an unsafe nuclear power plant on the outskirts of Lithuania.

The nuclear power plant, which will have two reactors from the Russian VVER project with a capacity of 1,200 megawatts, is being built in the Grodno region, about 50 kilometers from Vilnius and less than 30 kilometers from the border with Lithuania.

The State Defense Council (VGT), which met on Thursday, acknowledged that the Astrava nuclear power plant (NPP), to be launched soon, represents a real threat to national security. Alexei Likhachev, head of the Russian state nuclear power corporation, which is building a Belarusian nuclear power plant near the Lithuanian state border, stated that Rosatom plans to physically start the Astrava nuclear power plant in early August.

Lithuania is already preparing for this, both for itself and for protesting the very idea of ​​the Astrava nuclear power plant. Until now, Belarus has handcuffed all of Lithuania’s accusations in the same way that Lukashenko has handcuffed the threat of a coronavirus. For example, a traditional threat assessment published in early February by the Department of Homeland Security and Military Intelligence states that the Astrava nuclear power plant is being built despite international safety standards.

The intelligence report also states that at the end of June last year, due to the negligence of workers, a fire broke out in the first unit of the power plant near the reactor, but Belarusian authorities did not provide information on the incident.

To this, Deputy Minister of Belarus Mikhail Michadiuk replied that the fire was “lit from molten paint residues in a metal bucket” after an employee ignored the workplace safety rules and lit a cigarette next to a bucket of painting.

“It just came to our attention then. The fire system has gone off. No damage was caused to either the equipment or the building. The perpetrators were punished: the offender and his manager, the teacher, were fired. The public would have been informed if the fire would have damaged the equipment or the building, the security of the nuclear power plant, “said M. Michadiukas. He also added that under the rules of the International Atomic Energy Agency, it is not necessary to report such incidents.

Lukashenko himself has previously derided other incidents at the Astrava nuclear power plant. There were many of them: in 2016 alone, according to the Lithuanian Foreign Ministry, there were up to six incidents at the Astravas nuclear power plant.

“During two incidents (July 10, 2016 and December 26, 2016), two reactor hulls manufactured by the Russian state nuclear power corporation Rosatom were damaged. As the reactor vessel is one of the most important safety components of the nuclear power plant, lithuania takes the position that the reactor vessels damaged during the incidents are not adequate and should be replaced by new ones, ”the ministry document states.

For example, on July 10, when the 330-ton hull of the reactor was installed, it fell from 2 to 4 meters high. Initially, an attempt was made to conceal the incident, but when it came to light, the Astravo nuclear power plant seemed to recognize the incident as nothing and decided to replace the hull with a new one. But later, the new body was involved in a traffic accident during transportation, which was again reported late.

“The incidents at the Astravo nuclear power plant also show that project developers face systemic problems: low culture of job safety, lack of quality control of work, non-compliance with instructions, public communication is dominated by the principles of concealment and denial, rather than openness and transparency, “the MFA said in a statement. Ironically, Lukashenko himself tried to minimize these incidents by saying that everything happened “during training” and that the reactor itself and the entire power plant were particularly safe, but Belarus Health Minister Vladimir Karanik, who mocked Lukashenko in April, he admitted that a coronavirus outbreak was detected at the Astravo nuclear power plant, with more than 100 people hospitalized.

Why was it necessary to restore the documents?

Finally, a few weeks ago, there was a considerable uproar in Belarus after the publication of data from various open competitions in Russia. The first tender refers to the “restoration and delivery of construction documentation for the Astravo nuclear power plant facilities”.

The mere fact that the goal is to “restore” the documents as if they were missing or missing has raised a series of questions for Belarusians about the construction of the first reactor, which started in 2012. Isn’t it a project of such complexity, scope and importance as a nuclear power plant that may not have design documents?

No less suspicious was the fact that 78 days were given for the restoration and submission of a large amount of documentation, until September 8, although the first reactor will start up in August. In addition, the tender was announced on March 26 and the winners were the Belarusian company StaTechSistema, which was allowed to work in this type of work on March 20.

The NIKIMT-Atomstroj association, which announced the tender, provided the answer: as is normal practice, additional documents in four copies were needed on the work performed and the services provided. Furthermore, all these “recovery documents” are linked to Reactor 2, and the documents of the first have already been submitted and approved, although this is not detailed in the tender itself.

But that is not the end of the rarity, as there is another new tender associated with the Astrava nuclear power plant, announced on June 25. He says he is looking for suppliers “who can supply equipment and materials for the fire protection system at the Astravo nuclear power plant site.”

Only market considerations and research, such as the fire system at a nuclear power plant, which will go live in August or September, raises a series of questions about the safety of the facility itself. Given that there was already a covert fire, which Michadiuk said was “extinguished by the fire system,” statements by Belarusian and Russian officials raise a number of questions about its accuracy.

All the more so because an independent regulator capable of verifying the situation exists only in theory: the counterpart of the independent regulator in Lithuania, the State Atomic Energy Safety Inspectorate, is not independent in Belarus, which is very important because it is not only afraid to say something against Lukashenko’s opinion, but is assigned to one of the ministries.

Will the true owner also come?

However, as demonstrated in Vilnius under the presidency on Thursday, the safety of the Astrava nuclear power plant is not the only problem, or perhaps the most important, related to this power plant, Minsk’s attitude towards its problem and the credibility of Belarus in general.

Vytautas Landsbergis, one of the main initiators of Sąjūdis vs. Astravas AE mentioned the problem with treble tracks. After the unexpected appearance of the country’s president, Gitan Nausėda, at the rally, a brief, lively and eloquent conversation was established between the country’s two leaders, the first and the current one.

“If they have a surplus that they have nowhere to put, they will say, ‘Give up Kruonis or we will explode.’ What about that blackmail?” Landsbergis asked. According to the president, “they are not completely thoughtless people” and “this will not be the case.” When V. Landsbergis added that the Kremlin was more involved than Minsk, G. Nausėda agreed with such a statement.

“You’re right, probably the very fact that, as far as I know, the head of this state is coming to the opening, it probably also says a lot.” But look, we know very clearly what we want to achieve, and we will definitely strive in every possible way, “said G. Nausėda.

The president’s prescription that Putin himself, if he proves himself, will arrive at the inauguration of the Astrava nuclear power plant, as if it were any Olympic game or military exercise, will become another symbolic factor that shows the essence of the problem. He was also appointed by Romas Švedas, a Lithuanian diplomat, former Deputy Minister of Energy and an expert in this field. At Delfi, he emphasized that in Lithuania, the problems of the Astrava nuclear power plant are all too often perceived with a fragmentary emphasis on individual parts, especially on (in) safety.

The fact that Belarus violated the Espoo Convention was recognized in Geneva last year, and specifically in the environmental impact assessment process, it did the opposite and even sent documents translated to Lithuania by a machine translation program.

For example, in a document addressed to Lithuania, which was translated from English to Lithuanian, strange words appeared in the context of the description of a nuclear power plant, such as “plant”, which means a nuclear power plant. This may reflect systematic and Belarusian behavior, but according to Swede, the real and growing problem is broader and even more dangerous.

Despite all the accusations from Lithuania, negative international evaluations, all deficiencies in economic logic, and ongoing negotiations between the Baltic states, which openly mention Astravas, Belarus and Russia’s no-purchase electricity factor, they are launching urgently the nuclear power plant project.

The main problem is not security.

“In Lithuania, there is a lack of clarity about where the essential problem lies: it is not nuclear safety, it is not the impact on the environment; these are important but emerging issues. The biggest problem is that with this project, the Kremlin creates dependence of Lithuania and Belarus on Russia.

This object creates unrealistic levers to strengthen dependency, both energy and energy systems, and financial and political. In my opinion, the Kremlin has already achieved many goals aimed at destabilizing the situation: the Kremlin has opposed Lithuania and Belarus, created internal political tensions in Lithuania, where we pass laws, collect signatures, hold debates, disagreements arise; the Kremlin is rubbed only by hand, “said R. Švedas.

According to him, the situation in Belarus is much worse than in Lithuania. Kaliningrad’s energy independence is guaranteed, the Kremlin no longer needs gas transit through Lithuania, and Belarus’ dependence on the Kremlin gas sector is much greater.

“And this puts a lot of stress on Lukashenko himself. Traditionally, he takes steps before the election to demonstrate that he has alternatives, such as importing oil through Klaipeda. Lukashenko should soon start looking for alternative gas imports. After all, he publicly commented on Putin’s question about why Belarus buys more expensive oil elsewhere, saying “for
I wouldn’t get down on my knees in front of you on December 31, ”R. Švedas recalled.

According to the interlocutor, Lithuania’s aspiration not to import electricity from the Astrava nuclear power plant can only be one of the objectives to reach a higher level. Therefore, Lithuania should take concrete measures to reduce the dependency of both countries of the Kremlin, otherwise this growing dependency problem of Belarus could become Lithuania.

“There may be a variety of measures, given that Belarus is behaving as it does and will continue to do so.” Given that it is difficult to expect a consensus, we must act accordingly: try to explain and help the Belarusian leader and the people to understand what is happening so that they themselves are motivated to act.

The analogy may be Lukashenko’s famous record when he publicly said that he did not want to kneel before Putin on December 31. Sure, Lukashenko likes to play, but what makes people act? Crisis situation! Why did Lithuania build a liquefied gas terminal? Because a crisis situation has arrived. Societies first have a perception of threats, then society and the elite mobilize and finally do something, “said the interlocutor.

Kremlin game tool

According to Swede, the Astrava nuclear power plant project is already creating tensions and opportunities for Lukashenko’s inappropriate behavior, as well as many provocative levers for the Kremlin, which can take increasing measures. And they can happen at any time.

“These are just black scenarios, but if we are talking about provocations, let’s activate the imagination: what provocations about nuclear energy can be done? Simplest: We all know about the Kremlin’s liar and IT skills.

One can imagine the masterfully created story by the Kremlin on Facebook about the fact that something happened at the Belarus nuclear power plant, leaked to Neris and after 24 hours. I will be in Vilnius. And yet, see what they are filming, what kind of person is scared: all Vilnius will run to the coast, to the west. Can you imagine what kind of destruction can be done in Lithuania?

And what it is, the same dependency, the same energy, the provocative and growing dependency, the division of two countries, the destabilization of internal politics, I summarize it all in one word: the Kremlin makes us dependent and can manipulate us.

Will you come up with something related to the electrical networks of the system, or will you come up with the idea of ​​throwing out electricity and dealing with Latvians? Please. It all depends on the imagination of the Kremlin, how you will realize this opportunity. We have an escalation object, therefore I pose a question: how to reduce the possibility of the Kremlin intensifying this whole situation? R. Švedas said empathetically.