Preparing for major instability and unrest after a pandemic: a group of the wealthiest countries is not armed

Australia’s announcement in late June that it would increase defense spending by 40% over the next decade surprised many defense watchers. Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison has made it clear that the world will be “poorer, more dangerous and more devastated” after the COVID-19 pandemic, and that his country must be prepared for any possible consequences.

Australia is changing direction

Australia is a key partner of the United States in the region. Cooperation between the two countries remains a key part of Australia’s new strategic approach. Sharing intelligence, mobilizing American troops nationwide, and purchasing essential weapons from the United States remain key common ideas. The strategic goals of the two countries in the region overlap in many ways, especially when it comes to discouraging China’s increasing regional influence.

The increasingly fragmented foreign policy pursued by the Trump administration has made U.S. allies nervous about long-term U.S. commitments in the region.

China’s reckless confidence and readiness in the South China Sea, near Taiwan and on the border with India has led many analysts to worry that China is lowering the threshold for military action and increasing the likelihood of war.

With this in mind, Australia is constantly modernizing its army: ordering advanced and ultra-quiet French submarines, receiving the first shipments of American secret warplanes, and increasing the number of advanced warships. The geographic specifics of the country mean that the majority of newly allocated defense funds will go to the Navy, to which the majority of new personnel will be allocated.

In February, the United States agreed to sell advanced long-range secret anti-aircraft missiles capable of hitting valuable targets and sinking them at a distance of 370 km, three times the range of current Australian Harpoon missiles. They can be launched from both the aircraft and the ship, hitting the enemy ship and destroying it before the enemy realizes it is attacked. Such impressive offensive ability will give the Royal Australian Navy clear offensive power.

Hypersound missile technology is also being developed: Due to the extremely high speed of the missiles, which are several times higher than the speed of sound, these weapons can attack targets with very little time for warning. They can fly on scattered and unclear paths and are designed to confuse the enemy’s defenses: they seem unpredictable and eventually hit the target.

In addition, the early warning capacity of the Australian Royal Navy will be strengthened through a new submarine tracking network that extends into the North Sea and approaches the ocean to alert Australian defense forces of any conventional vessel or approaching submarine.

The increasing ability to monitor and detect any enemy focus at an early stage, the powerful and evolving new long-range hypersonic weapons allow Australia to choose a much more aggressive defense strategy, essentially allowing the country to attack first.

Change in Japanese attitudes

Australia is not the only country seeking such flexibility. Japan has always relied on its ally the United States to protect it from potential attackers. Japan itself tried to comply with the pacifist provisions enshrined in the country’s constitution after World War II. This confidence in the United States has gradually waned, and Japan, while still enjoying significant support from the United States, is now seeking to develop its own military capabilities to deliver the first blow, a fundamental change in Japan’s military attitude.

In a region where instability is only growing, Japan’s military budget is projected to increase to $ 48 billion for eight consecutive years. dollars (approximately € 42 billion). The country is constantly seeking to arm itself, upgrade its air force, buy secret F-35 fighter jets and early warning planes from the United States. Concerned not only about China’s rise, but also about North Korea threatening to start testing long-range missiles again, Japan now wants to give itself a chance to strike targets hundreds of miles away if necessary.

This change from defense to offense was especially evident when the refusal to deploy the expensive Aegis Ashore anti-missile defense system was announced in June. The anti-missile ground system was previously acquired to protect Japanese cities and 50,000 soldiers stationed in the country from ballistic missile attacks. Troops of the United States. 4.1 billion The system, which cost $ 3.59 billion, was expensive and did not have 100 percent. guarantees that it will really be effective. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe decided to look for alternatives that clearly transfer control of operations to Japanese hands and divert the conflict from the country’s coasts. If a rocket has already exploded, let it happen on the territory of another country.

Japan is already strengthening its increasingly powerful defense forces. The aircraft carriers of the Izumo-class helicopters are being redesigned so that they can transport and launch the F-35B’s secret fighters; in other words, turn them into a regular aircraft carrier.

Aware that space and cyberspace will become the new battleground for any future conflict, Japan is increasing satellite coverage and cyber warfare capabilities. In addition, a lot has been invested in the country’s secret fighters F-X program, although it is still in the experimental phase.

The United States is trying to upset the strategic balance.

As the United States has withdrawn from the Medium-Range Nuclear Forces Agreement (INF) with Russia, it is trying to deploy medium-range missiles at a place from which to reach China and North Korea. The response of the United States Allies in the so-called Ring of Fire to the request to accept missiles is quite cold. While they are concerned about China’s military expansion, they are no less afraid to provoke this new leviathan that has emerged on the sidelines. Both Australia and the Philippines have publicly refused to accept the missiles.

Due to their proximity and strategic association, the natural choice for these missiles is Japan, but here too there has been resistance from Okinawa, home to the majority of the country’s American troops, Governor Denny Tamaki, who has strongly opposed the idea. .

Still, the United States is interested in implementing this idea, as hundreds of precision non-nuclear missiles deployed near adversaries have shifted the strategic balance in the United States’ favor.

The sudden concentration of Chinese bases, navies and long-range air forces in and around the South China Sea is bothering its neighbors, who are now seeking to strengthen their defensive ties. Australia and India signed a defense pact for naval and logistics cooperation in June.

Japan seeks to strengthen ties with India, Australia and other ASEAN countries and is urging plans for further cooperation to form an alliance capable of resisting any possible aggression from China with the help of the United States.

In an increasingly dangerous region that is “poorer and more turbulent”, these alliances will be even more important. As the likelihood of U.S. support decreases, allies that can hit opponents from the shoulder become increasingly important.

Some critics expressed concern that such an aggressive military stance will encourage China to strengthen its offensive capabilities, explaining that this is an attempt to counter aggressive neighbors.