Coronavirus, competition and why Xi Jinping is really weak: China facing a political storm?

He said that while the United States cannot exert significant influence on China’s closed political system, diplomatic, economic and military pressure on Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) can certainly bear fruit.

“The long period of strategic confrontation with the United States in China will pave the way for dramatic change,” said Pei Minxin.

Current tensions are already sparking debate about the similarity of the confrontation between the United States and China with the US-Soviet rivalry during the Cold War. And while Beijing believes it will not repeat Soviet mistakes, that is exactly the process that is happening.

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The Cold War lasted for many decades, and the stagnation of the Soviet regime quickly became one of the most valuable factors in the United States.

Pei Minxin mentions Soviet mistakes: catastrophic economic policies, costly arms races, the global communist empire that he struggled so hard to win. Moscow did not realize that the reforms would have cost, but not the entire country.

In 2018, Xi Jinping decided to lift the limits of the presidential term, testifying that he intends to remain in power indefinitely.

Similarly, the Chinese leadership is caught in the clutches of the country’s political system: the possibilities of correcting mistakes are also limited.

For example, in 2018, Xi Jinping decided to lift the limits of the presidential term, testifying to his intention to remain in power indefinitely.

He approved the CCP under the pretext of fighting corruption, ordered not to break with the activists in Hong Kong, his will was to arrest hundreds of human rights activists and lawyers, that is, Xi Jinping was in charge of the substantial tightening of the censorship of the media in the country.

His government has established “re-education” camps in Xinjiang province, where more than a million Uighurs, Kazakhs and other Muslim minorities have been forcibly housed.

Finally, Xi Jinping centralized political and economic decision making. Most of the budget is spent on state-owned companies and, of course, on improving surveillance technology.

“It just came to our attention then. The state-driven economy is no longer healthy, and public observation only fuels resistance.” The outbreak of the new coronavirus has only increased Chinese dissatisfaction, “said Pei Minxin.

According to the expert, the strategic confrontation of the United States with China could turn into a drop that will fill the glass “to break the camel’s back.” If Xi Jinping continues to seek to monopolize responsibility and control, the CCP will face “catastrophic” changes.

Paper tiger

Since coming to power in 2012, Xi Jinping has replaced the collective leadership with a unilateral iron fist regime. Until then, the regime, according to Pei Minxin, was quite flexible and pragmatic, making coordinated decisions.

The CCP also avoided interfering in conflicts abroad, such as in the Middle East. In addition, Beijing refrained from engaging in activities that are detrimental to the national interests of the United States. USA At home, the ruling elite kept the peace by sharing the profits of the state administration.

At home, the persecution of ethnic minorities and political dissidents, abroad, an ambitious “Tape and Road” program, which raises many suspicions in the West.

Clearly, such a regimen was not perfect. Corruption simply remained in the air, and the government often missed important opportunities to take action on one issue or another, but most importantly, it was pragmatic and cautious.

However, for the past seven years, this system has been dismantled and replaced by ideological decisions. At home, the persecution of ethnic minorities and political dissidents, abroad, an ambitious “Tape and Road” program, which raises many suspicions in the West.

“The benefit of such actions is that difficult decisions are made quickly. However, this means that there is a possibility of costly mistakes. The commitments of the previous era were not effective, but did not allow radical and risky ideas to take hold,” Pei Minxin says.

And ruling Xi Jinping, recognizing and correcting mistakes is difficult. After all, the cult of a leader is formed, and a leader cannot make mistakes.

Xi Jinping also demands the full loyalty of his subordinates: this is how the CCP fades the debate, no new ideas are born, and the party is already beginning to lack the flexibility to place more cards in the geopolitical game with the United States.

“It just came to our attention then. Some party leaders will understand the risks, and Xi Jinping’s mistakes will only encourage his rivals: Prime Minister Li Keqiang and Politburo members Wang Yang and Hu Chunhua.

“The trio is close to former Chinese leader Hu Jintao,” said Pei Minxin.

Clearly, overthrowing an authoritarian leader in a one-party system is nearly impossible because it closely monitors the military and security forces. But only a movement would force Xi Jinping to behave even more paranoid, and instability in the country would increase.

The middle class is important

One of the most important components of Washington’s current strategy towards China is the concept of “economic detachment”. The United States seeks to significantly cool trade relations with China, which have expanded enormously over four decades.

Proponents of such a “disconnect,” including United States President Donald Trump, who started a trade war with China in 2018, believe Washington could severely cut China’s power by cutting Beijing off the huge US market and technology. advanced.

Although a ceasefire has been declared in the trade war, the process of “economic detachment” is sure to continue for years to come, even if Trump is replaced in the White House by Democrat Joe Biden.

It is true that China’s economy today depends much less on exports, so the “disconnection” will not stop the country’s growth. But the negative effect will continue to be, especially as investments decrease, public debt and society ages rapidly.

China’s middle class would put the most pressure on the regime: educated and ambitious citizens would walk away from the CCP if they didn’t get the job they wanted.

The Chinese generation born after the Cultural Revolution probably did not yet live in a time of declining living standards. And if the stalemate continues and the unemployment rate begins to rise, the popularity of the CCP is likely to decline.

And then there would be social unrest: riots, mass protests, strikes. However, the greatest pressure on the regime would be created by the Chinese middle class: educated and ambitious citizens will withdraw from the CCP if they don’t get the job they want.

“It just caught our eye then. The middle class tends to stay away from politics. But even if these Chinese don’t participate in anti-regime protests, they will express their dissatisfaction indirectly, in other demonstrations.

The middle class will also vote standing up, emigrating in large numbers, ”says Pei Minxin.

Should offer honorable cooperation

If economic growth slows, Xi Jinping will no longer have the money to regularly distribute loyal partners in Beijing, the province, and state-owned companies; in other words, the privileged layer will have fewer privileges.

The CCP elite will have to fight more for the blessing of the supreme power, but if Xi Jinping continues to focus solely on the Band and Road initiative, a wave of discontent is also likely.

Even more resistance can be expected in Tibet, Xinjiang and Hong Kong. The CCP itself will not fail due to turmoil in these regions, but foreign policy is already important here.

If even more severe repression is resorted to, Europe will undoubtedly eventually move away from Beijing and form a broad anti-Chinese coalition with the United States, even though China is desperately trying to prevent such an alliance from emerging.

Pei Minxin offers Beijing to save resources and limit its ambitions, for example, moving away from expansionary investment programs abroad, in particular the “Tape and Road” initiative. This is said to save the banking system.

“Furthermore, China could avoid that broad anti-Chinese coalition by offering fair cooperation to the allies of the United States.”

“Beijing should offer a set of economic, diplomatic and political concessions, open the country’s market to Japan, South Korea and Europe, guarantee the protection of intellectual property, commit to respect human rights, abandon certain territorial ambitions,” he writes. the critic.

Market reforms are also needed, as state-owned companies could be privatized. Unfortunately, Pei Minxin points out, Xi Jinping will almost certainly not follow that strategy: it contradicts the Chinese leader’s world view.

Pei Minxin: The Chinese Communist Party is likely to collapse after repeated convulsions. It will start to rot slowly, but the process will speed up quickly.

“Many of China’s recent foreign and security policy initiatives are Xi Jinping’s personal ideas. Giving up on them would be a defeat,” said the expert, who believes the Chinese president will beat the drums of nationalism even harder.

“It just came to our attention then. The crackdown would wait again, which would mean that the CCP would not have time for more important issues.

The CCP is certainly not dead yet. The party will remain in power unless there is a direct military conflict with the United States. But the regime, entangled in economic stagnation, the growing social unrest in the country and confrontations with other world powers, is fragile.

The party is likely to collapse after repeated seizures. It will start to rot slowly, but the process will speed up quickly, “says Pei Minxin.

The eloquent crisis of the coronavirus

Such a scenario is, of course, uttered by the absolute fantasy of those who believe that the CCP is sustainable and will withstand any shock. However, one need only see how the failed regime managed the outbreak of the new coronavirus.

This crisis has revealed a number of weaknesses in the CCP; for example, it has become clear that the regime’s ability to collect and process critical information is in fact more limited than expected.

Doctors who tried to pay attention to the dangerous virus were silenced, and in early January, the regime took no action for even two weeks.

After the SARS outbreak in 2002-2003, China has invested heavily in disease control and prevention programs. However, this did not prevent the power mistakes and the public outrage that followed.

Local officials at the epicenter of the outbreak in Wuhan, Hubei province, withheld important data from both the central government in Beijing and the public.

Doctors who tried to pay attention to the dangerous virus were silenced, and in early January, the regime took no action for even two weeks.

The crisis has also shown how delicate the cult of Xi Jinping is. Beijing has also failed a more determined fight against the virus outbreak, especially since in China, few major decisions can be made without the president’s direct blessing.

“A leader who monopolizes decision-making is vulnerable in such crises in a political sense. Xi Jinping did not go to Ugan himself, but sent the prime minister and did not appear in public for nearly two weeks. He has missed the opportunity to demonstrate that he is a determined president, “said Pei Minxin.

Xi Jinping only later took a tougher line, firing several supporters in Hubei and subjecting the press and social media to even stricter censorship.

But a few days of “windows” were enough to cause a wave of anger at the regime’s actions on Chinese social media.

People were publicly outraged at the doctors’ silencing, and the spate of allegations peaked after reports of the death of Dr. Li Wenliang, who was probably the first to warn the government of the dangers of COVID-19. , but was interrogated and silenced by the local police.

“The events of the past few months have shown that the CCP government is not as strong as it is supposed to be.” And that means that the American strategy of constantly increasing pressure is working. It has to continue, “says Pei Minxin.