Analysts say a powerful blow to Putin’s plans: he has no control over the situation

May 9 Holiday events would have capped Russia’s historic political season, including a symbolic referendum on amendments to the country’s constitution that would allow Putin to remain in power until 2036.

Now, in commemoration of the 75th anniversary of the victory over Nazi Germany, military aircraft will fly over the void of Moscow, leaving red, white and blue streaks of smoke in the sky. Putin will place flowers at the monument to fallen soldiers on the empty Red Square and address a nation increasingly dissatisfied with his country’s government.

Unfortunately, in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic, Russia is facing the worst crisis in recent memory, which has undermined the Kremlin’s political agenda and deepened Russia’s economic problems caused by falling oil prices, The Guradian reports.

After a daring visit to a coronavirus hospital in March while wearing a protective suit, Putin interacts with the nation primarily from a dungeon room at his residence. Due to the beige background, this room was called a “bunker”.

“It was supposed to be a great political spectacle,” said Gleb Pavlovsky, a political analyst and a former Kremlin adviser. “Authorities imagined the celebration as the most important political event of the year, the culmination of the 20th anniversary of the Putin government, but all plans failed.”

In arguing with his subordinates, Putin occasionally seems extremely bored. As the health minister discussed regional benefits on Wednesday, the distracted and dreamy president rolled his pen back and forth across the table, and the whole country saw that guide.

„V. Putin not only has no control over the situation, but cannot even plan a change in the agenda, said Nikolai Petrov, principal investigator on the panel at Chatham House in the UK. “He cannot adapt … I think Putin’s passivity is partly due to the fact that he is in an unusual position.”

The Russian president tried to regain the initiative by holding brief press conferences on television, promising financial assistance to Russians affected by the economic crisis and proposing deadlines for the opening of quarantined companies. However, his measures are weak, and a pandemic that does not promise to end soon means Putin has taken a back seat, allowing local officials such as Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin to be at the forefront of the fight against the virus.

„V. Putin wants to become a ladder to get out of the crisis: Sobyanin is making rules, and Putin will revoke them. That is a positive role for you, “The Guradian quotes Pavlovsky. – But so far there is no way out of this crisis, this pandemic is not seen. The situation worsens and becomes more dangerous.”

The Kremlin’s desire to implement its political program intersected with its response to the pandemic. Putin canceled the symbolic vote only in late March and the Victory Day parade in mid-April.

Thousands of soldiers have been quarantined to prevent infection.

“The Kremlin appears to have focused too much on constitutional and political reforms and has forgotten about the coronavirus,” Petrov said. “The pandemic came to Russia relatively late, so it was possible to better prepare for it.”

One thing is clear: now is not the time to hold a referendum that does not produce the desired result of the Kremlin’s response to the pandemic. Analysts are proposing to either cancel it entirely or postpone it until the fall, when political conditions are more favorable.

State television is like a window into events that may have been. On Sunday, the main news program on the first channel “Vremia” focused not on the news about the country’s fight against the coronavirus, but on a 13-minute report on the 20th anniversary of the Putin government. It was first opened in 2000. May 7 This information recalls a time capsule from a time when there was no pandemic.

“The existence of the country was threatened,” says well-known head of knowledge Ekaterina Andrejeva. “In two decades, Russia has once again become a strong country that is being read all over the world again and that can solve the most difficult problems and overcome any obstacles.”

The political risk to the Kremlin is limited. Putin’s ratings remain high, backed by 59 percent. population of the country. Furthermore, it has no real political rivals to offer an alternative, and regional officials at the forefront of the fight against COVID-19 got their jobs thanks to Putin.

The Kremlin, on the other hand, is closely monitoring the results of the polls, which show a two-year decline in Putin’s popularity (largely due to economic problems). The confusing spring political calendar deprived the Kremlin of an opportunity to improve its image when Putin began his third decade of rule.

“First, people are not so afraid of the coronavirus as they are of its economic consequences, pay cuts and layoffs,” said Denis Volkov, deputy director of the Levada Center. “Second, Putin is tired of everyone … Nothing new is expected of him.”

The next phase of the crisis will begin when the scale of the coronavirus pandemic in Russia’s regions becomes clear and it is possible to predict whether Russia faces a protracted health crisis and how long the economy will stagnate.
Incidentally, several outbreaks of coronavirus have already appeared in distant oil and gas fields and regional hospitals.

“The entire management system seems inefficient,” said Petrov. “The regions of the country are much less prepared for the crisis than Moscow … I’m afraid they will suffer more.”

“Mighty Blow”

Last month, the Russians had to vote on a constitutional reform that would pave the way for Putin to remain in power until 2036, but the virus has also adjusted those plans, writes AFP.

What was supposed to be a spring for Putin’s triumph has become his downfall, after which it may be difficult for the president to recover, observers say.

“This is the first time in 20 years that Putin has faced such a serious crisis,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, a political commentator. “It is a new experience for him.”

The pandemic, which occurred just as Putin introduced large-scale constitutional reform, dealt a “powerful blow to his plans,” a spokesman told AFP.

Russia, which initially reported fewer cases of coronavirus infection than Western European countries, has faced a rapid increase in the number of COVID-19 infections in recent days.

Health officials recorded a record number of new infections on Friday. Russia now ranks fourth in the world in Europe in terms of total infections.

Still, mortality from COVID-19 in Russia is low compared to the European countries most affected by the infection, but some commentators say the difference is due to a different method of counting victims.

This week, Putin praised the government’s response to the pandemic, saying that mortality remains low due to high volumes of evidence. Some countries see Russia as an example, he said.

“What we did was absolutely correct,” said the Russian leader. “Many foreign countries have followed our path.”

But many Russians disagree. Putin’s popularity ratings have not increased in the face of this health crisis, as have the leaders of other countries fighting COVID-19 infection.

According to data from sociological research company Levada Centr, released on Wednesday, Putin’s popularity rating has hit record lows since the start of the crisis: it fell to 59 percent in April, down from 63 percent in March.

The pandemic represents a serious threat to the Russian economy and is therefore limited by western sanctions which, according to observers, could increase people’s hostility towards the Kremlin,

Since Russia took isolation measures to reduce the spread of the coronavirus, small businesses have faced serious problems, and millions of Russians have been left without pay, despite the government having promised to support the companies and their employees.

Igor Nikolayev, director of the Institute for Strategic Analysis at business consulting firm Grant Thornton, says the crisis came at the wrong time and coincided with falling oil prices.

According to him, the Russians were not prepared for this double blow. About 60 percent. They have no savings, and last year their income fell 7.5 percent.

Russia can endure difficulties for about 18 months due to the accumulated 150 billion. $ (140 billion euros) in state-owned funds, Nikolayev said.

But if the crisis continues and “life does not get easier, it will affect people’s attitudes towards power,” he told AFP.

But Putin can recover. In 20 years in power, he has been through many crises, and many Russians are grateful to him for bringing the country out of the chaos of the 1990s and restoring its authority in foreign eyes.

Russian authorities have promised a Victory Day parade and a referendum on constitutional amendments later this year, but commentator Andy Kolesnikov says it may not be enough to save Putin’s year.

For many years, Putin has “enjoyed popularity with Russians,” said Kolesnikov, a member of the Carnegie Center in Moscow. He will now “personally gather all of his dissatisfaction,” he said.

“In the context of the coronavirus crisis, the vote will not mobilize the country,” said the expert.

The military parade alone also “will not seriously help Putin’s popularity drop,” he said.

Stanovaya, for his part, said that after such a long stay in power, Putin had “distanced himself from the people” and had lost the ability to empathize with his problems.

If the Kremlin cannot solve its economic problems, “public dissatisfaction will grow, protests will begin,” he warned.