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This forecast comes from a report commissioned by Sir Patrick Vallance, the UK’s chief scientific adviser, and published by the UK Academy of Medical Sciences. The study estimated the number of people who could die in hospitals in June next year.
This study suggests that a second coronavirus outbreak could be more severe than the first, with its so-called R number (average viral load or reproductive load rating for coronavirus) increasing to 1.7 since September.
The R number in the UK is now 0.7-0.9.
An increase in the R number would likely mean a return to quarantine in the UK, as ministers warned of an urgent return of measures to combat the spread of the coronavirus if the R number rises to more than one.
The 37 scientists and academics who wrote the report say the highest spike in hospital-related illnesses and deaths could occur in January and February 2021.
This surprising prognostic study by researchers does not include deaths among residents or grandparents at home and does not take into account any government intervention.
Azra Ghani, an epidemiologist and infectious disease specialist at Royal College London, co-author of the report, told Sky News that the study’s findings “were not prognostic” but “what could happen in the worst case” if the outbreak of coronavirus “became uncontrollable”.
“With the onset of winter, the weather is getting worse, people are deeper inside, windows are generally not open, so of course the chances of the virus spreading are increasing,” said Ghani.
“In addition, other pressures on the NHS intensify during the winter, with more people hospitalized. All these things, taken together, can lead to the worst case scenario. The system needs to be operational and ready by September,” explained the researcher. .
Professor Stephen Holgate, an immunopharmacology expert at the Medical Research Service who led the study, said the risk of coronavirus seriously affecting the country “could be reduced if we take immediate action.”
It called for the vaccination of flu-vulnerable people and health and social care workers, and the expansion and strengthening of a contact monitoring and testing program to provide a “rapid response surveillance system” capable of stopping outbreaks local.
Richard Vautrey, head of the General Practice Medical Committee of the British Medical Association, said the NHS workers were “very tired” because they had worked “extremely hard” to deal with the pandemic, but were preparing for winter, which could be “extremely difficult” to work with.
A government spokesman said the report “presents the worst case scenario without government action and makes it clear that this is not a forecast.”
“Thanks to the country’s joint efforts, the virus is under control. However, we remain vigilant and the government will ensure that all necessary resources are available to prevent a second outbreak that would undermine our health care system,” added a spokesperson. of the government.
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