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“The intrigue remains about relations with Brussels. If the European Commission or the European Council were to start a vote on the rule of law in Poland or a discussion on how to link the budget to the principle of the rule of law, Lithuania would again be in a pretty difficult situation here, ”Andžejus Pukšto, associate professor at Vytautas Magnus University, told BNS.
“Until now, Lithuania has supported Poland, despite the fact that there is a desire in Lithuania to accelerate and strengthen the integration of the European Union,” he said.
During the second round of Sunday’s Polish presidential election, A. Duda won with 51.21 percent. and his rival, the liberal mayor of Warsaw, Rafal Trzaskowski, received 48.79 percent of the vote. votes.
According to A. Pukštas, the results of the vote showed that Polish society is very divided and that the opposition can only intensify.
“It can be predicted that both domestic and foreign policy in Poland will be even better.” Law and Justice “will have almost a year and a half of full power, and those reforms are likely to be more radical somewhere and that divisions protests, some kind of civil disobedience, may be inevitable, because now the opposition has also acquired a certain leader: there has never been a leader as clear as R. Trzaskowski, “said A. Pukštas.
In his view, the Polish government could force a rethink of foreign and security policy unless Donald Trump defeated the American elections.
“Of course, both Duda and everyone in power would lose a very large ally, and then if the United States ceases to be such an important and unconditional partner, perhaps Poland will try to do something about foreign and foreign policy. security”. So far, it seems that the confrontation with Brussels will not diminish in the coming months, “said the political scientist.
According to A., the positions of Lithuania and Poland in the field of military and energy security should remain similar.
“The country is united by common military and energy security interests, joint projects: construction of power lines, Via Baltica, Rail Baltica. All those projects will probably continue, security cooperation will definitely continue, the enemy remains the same: the The main source of the threat is the Kremlin and Putin’s Russia, so nothing is changing much here, “said A. Pukštas.
According to Vytis Jurkonis, a political scientist at the Vilnius University Institute for International Relations and Political Science, the key question after the elections is about A. Duda’s attitude: whether he will try to unite the nation or follow a “more divisive course”? .
“The health of democracy in the neighboring country and Warsaw’s relations with Brussels and its neighbors will depend on it,” Jurkonis told BNS.
According to him, the health of democracy in Poland is a very important issue at the European level.
“If we believe that the EU is a unique entity in a world where respect for democracy and human rights and freedoms is a distinctive feature, it is very important that we do not deviate much from international standards.” The human rights agenda It probably won’t be a priority, but the most important thing is that human rights standards are not mentioned, and if Brussels or international organizations remind us that this is not hostile and that Poland is not adrift as Hungary did, “Jurkonis said .
He stressed that Poland, as the closest neighbor, is especially important to Lithuania “in the context of the Euro-Atlantic community”, and A. Duda’s significant attention to Lithuania in the United States and NATO in assessing Russia’s aggression in Ukraine it is significant.
“We have to speak to any representative in Warsaw. Since A. Duda was elected, I think the continuation was, will continue to be, the relationship was not bad enough,” he said.
The political scientist also said he saw the possibility that some Lithuanian politicians would try to repeat the actions of the Polish authorities.
“For some of our politicians, the example of Poland is very impressive, trying to learn and apply some lessons as a kind of recipe for success in going to the elections.” I would suggest not giving in to temptation, because it is quite difficult to get out of that tension field. This is shown not only by the example of Poland, but also by the example of Sakartwell and many other countries, “he said.
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