Renowned US expert sees dangerous trends: Europe will be neutralized

As early as 1994. In an article titled “Anarching Anarchy,” this geopolitologist painted a grim picture of the 21st century, unlike most hopeful intellectuals of the day.

Kaplan, who traveled to West Africa, Egypt, Iran and the Indian subcontinent with his backpack on his shoulders in trains, trucks and taxis, diagnosed: The collapse of a global civilization awaits us.

“The growing population, soil erosion and associated migration mean that we will no longer be able to control the spread of epidemics in the future,” he said.

Furthermore, clear conflicts between nation-states will be replaced by an anarchic abundance of “cultural” and religious conflicts.

Even then, the geostrategic predicted for the global North that it would be adversely affected not only by anarchy spreading from the south, but also by tensions caused by the internal cultural heterogeneity of the Nordic countries.

The coronavirus crisis is a caesarean section between globalization 1.0 and globalization 2.0

The course of history unfortunately confirmed R. Kaplan’s predictions. It also followed the processes of globalization in recent decades with skepticism.

“I have been to Davos five times. There, yielding to illusion, as if it were possible to project reality from above. In the real world, no one rules. The elites lost control. In addition to empires and the demise of the US-led postwar order, we are gradually moving closer to an anarchic and post-imperial reality, “he noted in 2016. in an interview with the German newspaper Die Welt in February.

Now, in assessing the consequences of the pandemic, Kaplan said the same thing every day: “For me, (pandemic – ed.) Means a historic caesarean between globalization 1.0 and globalization 2.0. The first globalization was an optimistic story: free trade, democracy, a growing middle class, a unifying world, and the formation of a world elite. And here is the tone of the second globalization: pessimistic: protectionism, fear of the middle class, authoritarianism in a world that has become extremely fragile due to intensifying competition from superpowers. The coronavirus is the distinguishing factor: in the United States, in Europe and in the relations between the great powers. “

When asked if China would not be the winner of the pandemic crisis, Kaplan considered: “China, the United States and Russia have been weakened by the coronavirus, but only relatively. China could recover more quickly, its state capitalism is dynamic and it is ready to buy back companies from the developed world. The China Silk Road initiative may be seen as problematic, but it is at least part of an overall strategy. On the other hand, the United States, on the other hand, has no inspiring ideas for maintaining the country’s power under Trump. “

Shakespeare figure Donald Trump

In the past four years, America’s reputation has plummeted and Americans have lost the role of world leaders. How could a person do so much harm?

According to Kaplan, the story is twisted by two things: great power and authority and the Shakespearean drama that emanates from individuals. According to him, “The latter is short: we see how an individual, even without an understanding of history, can be a historical figure.”

And that should not surprise us: “People like Trump mobilize huge supersonal forces that simply catapult him into power. In short, the United States is one that world elites have never stepped on. “

And although the United States is not D. Short, as Russia is not Vladimir Putin or China is not Xi Jinping, all three, according to Kaplan, are “prototype representatives of these societies in their current state. The United States is a country full of great hostility towards the economic elite, China is the fiercest nationalism and pride. What about Russia? It is a country of cynicism and tortuous chaos. “

The role of the Red Army in Europe has been taken over by gas.

The current situation in Europe is not really easy. “Not only China but also Russia are invading Europe. Putin’s successful completion of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline will subtly eliminate Western Europe’s foreign policy, no matter how politicians say otherwise. The role of the Red Army in Europe has been assumed by gas, “said the geopolitologist sadly.

It is also concerned about China’s active infiltration of the southern European economy.

“Europe has always been happy to talk about unity and human rights. But without American leadership, Europe will be neutralized and will eventually become the western branch of Eurasia dominated by Russia,” he said.

At the same time, Kaplan recognizes the difficulty of working with America today, which, according to Die Welt, is being ridiculed and less and less respected.

“It just came to our attention then. From 1945 to 2016, the Transatlantic Alliance was the most morally and militarily successful alliance in world history. But even those successful alliances are undermined by contradictions in time. It’s natural after all. The result was a US populist uprising against the postwar world order and consequently Donald Trump. And yet Europe should continue to work with the United States, because it is the strongest economy and military power in the world, “said Kaplan .

Barack Obama has already sent a signal to Vladimir Putin: the Americans are withdrawing

More recently, Trump officially approved a plan to withdraw 9.5 thousand from Germany. However, this process began long before American soldiers.

“President Obama in 2012 pulled 7,000 soldiers out of Europe. And he did it after the Russian invasion of Georgia!” – Kaplan evaluated 2016 with undisguised criticism. In an interview with the Swiss daily Neue Züricher Zeitung.

“It was a signal to Vladimir Putin: the Americans are in the withdrawal phase. Now he will have more room for maneuver,” said the geopolitologist at the time, answering a purely theoretical Swiss question about what would happen if Russia attacked the Baltic states.

“As for the Baltic states, a distinction needs to be made between Lithuania and the other two. It is not so easy to occupy Lithuania. It is too large and very close to Poland. An invasion of Poland would immediately lead to a larger war. Without However, Estonia and Latvia are vulnerable. The Russians could invade them and wait for the West to intensify. This danger already exists, “- considered in 2016. Kaplan, skeptical of the United States’ gradual military withdrawal from Europe and recalls,” the threat Russia remains. “

“I will tell you my opinion: We need more, not less, US forces in Central and Eastern Europe. Only then can we strengthen our negotiating positions with the Russians,” Kaplan said.

Peace, according to Kaplan, is a temporary absence of conflict.

“Conflicts always arise. The aim is to keep them below a certain threshold and avoid cross-border wars.” The mistake of the European elite in recent decades has been to believe that conflicts as such are not natural and that the world can be governed by the early Enlightenment, in this case the welfare state plus the single currency, “said Kaplan.

It is difficult to unite such different countries under one roof of the EU

And in this summer’s interview, Kaplan spared no criticism of European intellectuals who, according to Die Welt, view the European Union with romantic fervor, even though the Community is far from being a unified superpower structure and the state -Nation remains the best known and most culturally acceptable. expression form

Kaplan bases his geopolitical ideas and his skeptical vision on the possibility of uniting such different countries under the same EU roof under the geography of those countries and their different models of historical development.

“There is not a single Europe, but several Europeans who have not lost their importance: Carolingian (European Union), Prussian (Germany, ruled from Berlin), Habsburg (Visegrad countries), the old Byzantium and the Balkans dominated by Turkey. No it is by chance that Greece, the baby of Byzantine and Turkish despotism, has become Europe’s first test, “Kaplan said in 2013, referring to the Greek debt crisis.

Germany will have to lead: there is no other option

“Now the European Union is again in an existential crisis,” Die Welt told the same newspaper seven years later. – Each country cares more about itself than all the others. There is no real European interest. Northern Calvinist states are tired of paying for the southern Mediterranean. The coronavirus has made this even more difficult. “

Die Welt spoke to Kaplan as the German presidency approached, so he wanted to hear the geostrategist’s views on Germany.

“For more than 75 years, the country has successfully developed and established an exemplary democracy and economy, initially protected by the United States, and after 1989. – as a country on the path to pan-European identity. But now that unity European is being lost and the American alliance is a thing of the past, Germany should, for the first time since Hitler, establish a “healthy nationalism.” Nationalism that does not surrender to Russia and China and, on the other hand, has a European vision. As the largest and richest country in Europe, Germany has no choice but to lead.

What awaits you after Trump wins the election again in the fall?

At the end of the conversation, Andrea Seibel, a journalist at Die Welt, wanted to know the interviewer’s opinion about the US presidential elections in the fall. Will the loss of D. Trump be forgotten, and the United States become “great again,” but not in Trump’s sense?

“Brief, as I said, he is a historical figure. He will not be forgotten. Because it changed the United States and, at the same time, the world. At the end of Trump’s term, the United States could recover. However, it will not be possible to return to the pre-Trump era, even if he loses, “Kaplan is convinced.

How about winning? “A world awaits us marked by dramatic tensions between the United States and China. A Europe that is trying to appear neutral in the face of economic aggression between Russia and China, and many riots and uprisings in the rest of the world. It will be a new world of anarchy, more anarchic than during the Cold War and the post-cold war period ”, predicts Kaplan.

Kaplan, as in his 1994 forecast, is skeptical about the future: “If Donald Trump is re-elected, we can witness the decline of a powerful state. But the most important thing is not who will be chosen in November, but if the result of the election will be recognized by the losing party. If this is not the case, the United States could face major civil unrest. “