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If the Seimas elections take place in the near future, according to a survey commissioned by the ELTA news agency, the market research and public opinion company Baltijos tyrimai from June 15 to 25, 16.8 percent would vote for the LVŽS. Lithuanian citizens. In February of this year, 11% expressed such a position. surveyed population.
Second, the rating of the remaining TS-LKD match fell 4.2 percentage points in four months. In June, conservatives reportedly cast 13.6 percent of the vote. Lithuanian citizens. And in February, said position was maintained at 17.8 percent. surveyed
The Social Democratic Party of Lithuania (LSDP), led by Gintautas Paluckas, remains third in the leaderboard. In four months, the ratings for this party have changed very little. In June, the party received 12.7 percent support. surveyed (11.4% in February).
The Liberal Movement led by Viktorija Čmilytė-Nielsen, who is in fourth place, also shows a slightly more significant decline in the ranking. According to the survey, 6.6 percent would vote for the Liberal Movement. Lithuanian citizens. At the time, in February, liberals showed 8.5 percent support. population.
The Labor Party currently has more than five percent support (among the country’s entire adult population) (6.3 percent). Compared to a similar poll conducted four months ago, the ranks of “worker” supporters were similar (6.7% in February). Meanwhile, the “Freedom and Justice” party led by Remigijus Žemaitaitis was recently established (after the Lithuanian Freedom Union joined) with 5.8 percent. it is in sixth place on the leaderboard.
Down the leaderboard at 4.9 percent. Polish Lithuanian Election Campaign – Union of Christian Families. Four months ago, 3.7 percent declared their support for this political force. the citizens. The Freedom Party led by Aušrinė Armonaitė is supported by 2.8 percent. surveyed (3% 4 months ago).
At the bottom of the ranking is the ruling Lithuanian Social Democratic Party (currently backed by 2.2%, similar popularity – 2.3% 4 months ago), the Center Party “Lithuania Welfare” led by MP Naglis Puteikis (1.4% and 1.9%). The party led by Arvydas Juozaitis would support the Intergenerational Solidarity Union-Santalka for Lithuania by 1%. Respondents The list is completed by the National Union (0.4%) and the Christian Union (0.3%).
Just over a quarter (25.2%) of respondents indicated that they would not participate in the Seimas elections or that they are undecided on what to vote for.
M. Jastramski: It looks like we will have a three horse race.
Professor at the Institute of International Relations and Political Sciences, doc. From the University of Vilnius. Dr Mažvydas Jastramskis Eltai said the leaderboard shows three party leaders: LVŽS, TS-LKD and LSDP. M. Jastramskis notes that this is one of the first post-quarantine surveys, therefore no more sustainable predictions have yet to be made of which of these three parties could win the election.
“It seems we will have a three horse race: the ‘peasants’, the TS-LKD and the Social Democrats. Although I did not see these rankings, I had the impression a month ago that the distances in terms of mandates between the three parties would be quite close But we cannot say which party will be extended, because a month in the ranking a couple percent of one of the parties is advancing, the other is already another, but, of course, it is a great achievement for the “peasants” that they have stabilized when they fell last year. However, this is not good news for TS-LKD, “the VU professor TSPMI told Eltai.
On the other hand, M. Jastramskis points out that the recovery of “farmers” in the rating tables in recent months is really visible.
“Currently, we can say one thing: the recovery of LVŽS is visible. If we talk about the opposition TS-LKD or the Liberal Movement, they do not seem to be growing. But I could not say more sustainable trends, because this is only the first survey after quarantine, “he said.
“Taking all the figures together, not just this survey, because we can’t see the results of a single survey, we can say that the results between the” peasants “and TS-LKD are paralyzed. Here is a simple answer that during the quarantine the activities of the Government and the Minister Aurelijus Veryga and Saulius Skvernelis saved the LLS ”, said M. Jastramskis.
Professor VU TSPMI reminds that 3% must be taken into account in the classifications. Errors Given the error, according to him, the positions of TS-LKD and LVŽS are approximate.
“The ratings are 3 percent. Error. So if we add 3 percent to TS-LKD, we get 16.6 percent. And if we subtract from the ‘peasants’ 3, we get 13.8 percent. This means that the popularity of the festivals overlaps strongly. In Lithuania, it is difficult to see in general, because there are many parties and, in general, the differences are small, “he said.
“Especially since they probably remember how the polls in Lithuania predict the elections well,” said M. Jastramskis.
According to him, the increase of the “peasants” LSDP and TS-LKD shows certain signs.
“The LSDP competes more with the ‘peasants’ for similar voters and they do not have a very good knowledge. In general, this tripartite panorama is similar to what we saw before 2016. Sixth elections. I think the next few months will be very important and what will be the trajectory of these parties 2016 The LVŽS, like the LSDP, was not the main party, it was among the three, but its trajectory reached the top. Of course, if we take the right position, there really is no good news in its rankings Of course, they would like to see the biggest drop in “peasants” and an increase in their qualifications before the election, but this was not the case, and the quarantine has stabilized matters, “he said.
R. Urbonaitė: Conservatives should be concerned
Professor at Mykolas Romeris University (MRU) Rima Urbonaitė He said the increase in “peasant” ratings started in February. According to her, the population also appreciated the work of the rulers during the coronavirus.
“It is obvious that the rating of ‘farmers’ is increasing. And this is because they have managed to manage a very specific coronavirus health crisis. The ‘farmers’ have managed to face the health crisis, not the economic one, but the crisis Health. Health is an important thing, naturally, that people appreciate. We have to say that the favorable ratings of the personalities Aurelijus Veryga and Saulius Skvernelis also turned into an increase in the party rating. 5 percent increase is in this month’s mood, but whether that mood will last is a great question. This is a great sign for opposition forces, “R. Urbonaitė told Eltai.
The political scientist notes that the survey results also send important signals to TS-LKD.
“The decline in ratings is especially visible on the side of conservatives, who have even jumped out of the margin of error. This is a sign for conservatives that they need to think and think strategically. If we see the same trend next month, it’s something “What to worry about. Conservatives didn’t even anticipate anything being second in their plans, and the ratings showed it could be anything. And that those forecasts are very much in line with the reality of what will happen in October 2020,” said R. Urbonaitė.
The MRU professor points out that opposition to rulers during the coronavirus was not always justified.
“Screaming, in my opinion, was not always correct. I am talking in particular about things like the Squernel COVID-19 test, when such an answer was completely unnecessary, because after all, he is the Prime Minister and everyone knew his medical history. It is Naturally, there is no need to waste energy on such things, and we needed to talk about probably more important things. Of course, there was not much room for opposition parties to operate during quarantine and emergency situations. We are also seeing the result now ” , said.
R. Urbonaitė states that the LSDP should also not be happy with its ratings. According to her, the LSDP’s position of being “neutral” in the context of the parties to the conflict did not produce results.
“The LSDP is a bit frozen, if we look at different polls, the party movement is so cold. The qualifying move is negligible. It seems to me that their ratings really should not satisfy them. We don’t seem to see them vividly and they are somewhere. We don’t see its president or the other people at the party. If their position is to be Switzerland, it is natural for people to forget about them in general. I think this happened due to their lack of activity, their neutral position froze them, “emphasized R. Urbonaitė.
R. Ališauskienė: post-quarantine effect
Sociologist Rasa Ališauskienė, director of Baltic Research, in evaluating trends in party ratings, emphasized that the quarantine period gave a boost to the ratings of “peasants”.
Post-quarantine effect. It is clear that the quarantine provided the impetus. We did a lot of research on handling the situation during these 4 months, which showed that the best evaluations were from Aurelijus Veryga and Prime Minister Saulius Skvernelis. This, of course, added a lot of support. And there were practically no opposition parties at the time. Maybe now they see a little more activation of the electoral campaign, but people take longer to react, “said sociologist Eltai.
Analyzing the reasons for the growth of “peasant” ratings, R. Ališauskienė emphasized that one of the main reasons for this is probably the slow opposition during the quarantine.
“The main problem is that no other parts were seen at all. Their activity was not seen. On the other hand, people did not see anything else because the main people spoke about the coronavirus from the ruling side. The 5 studies we did before people’s evaluation of government work during the coronavirus, etc., showed people’s support for rulers and the stability of the ratings of S. Skvernel and A. Veryga throughout the quarantine period, “he told Eltai.
The survey was conducted in 2020. June 15-25. During the investigation, 1000 Lithuanian residents (from 18 years of age) were interviewed through personal interviews, the survey was carried out at 108 sampling points. The composition of the respondents corresponds to the composition of the Lithuanian population aged 18 years or over by sex, age, nationality, type of settlement. The opinion of the respondents shows the opinion of the Lithuanian population aged 18 years and over. The error of the research results is up to 3.1%.
The survey was conducted in 2020. June 15-25. During the investigation, 1000 Lithuanian residents (from 18 years of age) were interviewed through personal interviews, the survey was carried out at 108 sampling points. The composition of the respondents corresponds to the composition of the Lithuanian population aged 18 years or over by sex, age, nationality, type of settlement. The opinion of the respondents shows the opinion of the Lithuanian population aged 18 years and over. The error of the research results is up to 3.1%.
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