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His advice not to quarantine Sweden coincided with one of the world’s highest Covid-19 death rates. However, Mr Tegnell himself argues that the Swedish strategy is still not properly understood.
Over the past week, the epidemiologist has repeatedly made headlines, criticizing the World Health Organization and calling countries that have opted for strict quarantine “crazy.”
All along, Tegnell has argued that the world is still in the early stages of a long and vague fight against Covid-19. Therefore, Sweden’s strategy, keeping most of the public open but teaching people to follow distancing instructions, is the only real way to deal with the coronavirus in the long term, he said.
“I expect a more serious evaluation of our work than has been done so far,” Tegnell told a Swedish radio network. “It is impossible to predict how it will all end.”
Rehabilitation
Tegnell on Friday won a public victory over the WHO, which had ruthlessly criticized the organization for making an “absolute mistake.” The WHO initially included Sweden in a group of 11 countries in which, according to the organization, “accelerated transmission has led to a very significant recovery from the virus, which, if left unattended, would lead to a collapse of the health care system “
However, the WHO changed its assessment and stated that the level of infections in Sweden was “stable”. The greater number of cases is associated with greater evidence.
William Hanage, associate professor of epidemiology at the Harvard School of Public Health in Boston, says “Swedish policy is unusual because it has taken a much more forgiving approach to prevent the spread of the virus, but interestingly, the virus has not yet spread. has spread to the community. “
“Sweden’s approach may be more sustainable than other countries,” says Hanage. – It should be noted that quarantine is a response to the imminent influx of health institutions and aims to break as many transmission chains as possible as soon as possible. A final evaluation will only be possible after the pandemic. “
Still, the Swedish approach comes at a cost, and the death toll per 100,000 population here is five times higher than in neighboring Denmark, as data from Johns Hopkins University shows. The strict Danish quarantine imposed in mid-March was lifted after the virus was expected to be controlled in the country.
In Sweden, “it is not clear how to protect the most vulnerable,” says Hanage. “When there is a very large outbreak in one age group, it becomes more difficult to protect another.” This is exactly the situation in a Swedish nursing home, where a terribly high number of deaths has led to at least one criminal investigation.
Side effects
Mr. Tegnelli is concerned that strict quarantine may temporarily stop the virus, but will eventually return. He also claims that quarantine has its price, which could have been avoided.
“Just as all drugs have side effects, so do pandemic measures,” he said. “It is natural for an institution like ours, which deals with various public health problems, to take these aspects into account.”
He mentioned domestic violence, loneliness, and mass unemployment.
In an email comment on Friday, the WHO stated that “there are some very positive trends in Sweden, in particular the steady decline in the number of new serious cases, the gradual decline in the number of patients admitted to the unit of intensive care since April and the decrease in the new deaths of Covid-19 “. “
“Sweden has involved the community in the response and has been able to maintain the transfer at a level that the Swedish health system can control,” the organization said.
Unknowns
Finally, it is too early to know which model will be wiser in the face of the current pandemic.
“Sweden’s approach has been misinterpreted as doing nothing. That is not the case, says Mr. Hanage. – Returning to the starting point, when it was decided that an outbreak was imminent, the question arises of how to mitigate it and save the health care system. The sooner you take steps to slow the spread of an outbreak, the less intense the action will be in the first place. “
“In this regard, Sweden’s strategy was wiser than that of countries that encouraged transmission of the virus until quarantine was unavoidable,” says Hanageas. – However, this has had a high cost due to the mortality of the most vulnerable groups … The strategy must also be flexible and sensitive; If a new wave occurs, you should be able to detect it and know what to do to avoid it. “
“As for the overall result, time will tell,” Hanage concluded.
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