The authorities would not satisfy the mood of the Lithuanians: they do not yearn for the Soviet era and they do not believe in Putin

A study on geopolitics and international politics and threat perception, based on the latest sociological data, was presented at the Center for Eastern European Studies (RESC) on Friday. Delfi has already announced what Lithuanians really think about Vladimir Putin, Russia and other neighbors and their leaders.

The study is carried out from 2020. April 22 to May 6. According to a questionnaire compiled by RESC, the survey was conducted by Spinter Research. The survey is representative, surveying 1,012 respondents (aged 18-75) living in Lithuania. To see the trends, the study repeats the questions from 2016. and 2018. analysis, as well as the inclusion in the questionnaire of new aspects that can determine the country’s geopolitics and security.

The study was prepared by the head of RESC Linas Kojala, specialists from this center Justinas Kulys, Andrius Prochorenko, Adam Roževič, edited by doc. Dr. Mažvydas Jastramskis. Among other evaluations, the attitude of the country’s population towards the functioning of democracy in the state, trust in the country and international institutions was examined.

He also asked about the attitude of the population towards the defense of the country, its financing and the willingness to contribute to defense in case of crisis. Similar investigations have been conducted for several years and no major and dramatic changes have been recorded. However, the trends are clear enough: When Lithuania marks the 80th anniversary of the first Soviet occupation, most respondents are not even satisfied with everything that is happening in the country that would prevent the events of the 1940s happen again.

Trust in the presidential institution has decreased

Looking only at public space, a statistical citizen of the country might give the impression that Lithuanians are not very optimistic about the functioning of the country’s democracy, Western Euro-Atlantic institutions and institutions cannot respond to crises and can only express a “deep concern”. Therefore, in the event of a serious crisis in a country that would threaten Lithuania’s independence, neither the majority of the population nor other countries or alliances, such as NATO, would defend them.

But polls show something else. On the one hand, according to the study’s authors, the Lithuanian population remains skeptical about how democracy works in the country and the possibilities of ordinary people in the country to determine the decision-making process. The youngest population in the country is more positive about the possibilities of influencing state policy, but the general trend has not changed significantly in a few years. True, there are surprises.

For example, among political institutions (excluding courts), the public relied more on trust in the Government of Lithuania (43% of those who trusted and those who fully trusted) and the presidency (40%).

Importantly, as much as 35 percent. the presidency responded to the respondents as neither trusting nor distrusting; This is the highest indicator among the five surveyed institutions, comparable to the indicator of political parties in terms of margin of error1. Compared to 2018. According to the RESC survey, the evaluation of the Government of the Republic of Lithuania practically did not change, in 2018. 41 percent expressed confidence in the Government of the Republic of Lithuania. surveyed

However, confidence in the presidency has dropped significantly, from 51 percent. 2018 up to 40 percent. 2020 Lithuanians continue to have the least trust in the Seimas and political parties: the proportion of totally trustworthy and trustworthy people is 8 and 24 percent, respectively.

There are no significant changes in terms of satisfaction with the functioning of democracy. Compared to 2016, there is a statistically significant growth of the group of highly satisfied and satisfied (from 28 to 36%), and a comparison with 2018. It does not exceed the error limits.

It is true that it must be taken into account that compared to 2018. and 2020 The proportion of the population dissatisfied and completely dissatisfied with democracy fell by 9 percentage points to 31%. It is also important to note that in 2020, 6 percent has increased the number of those who are neither satisfied nor dissatisfied with democracy. Representatives of the highest educated group are often satisfied with the functioning of democracy in Lithuania.
Furthermore, according to the study authors, questioning democracy as the most appropriate form of government is also associated with a certain longing for a strong hand. This indicator fluctuates slightly: the need for a “strong leader to circumvent the rules in order to achieve the objectives” remained unchanged compared to 2018 (31-32%), and the number of respondents who did not support a leader Strong also changed slightly (from 36 to 41 percent).

It is true that there are fewer supporters of the idea of ​​a strong leader in the survey than, for example, in 2005. A similar study conducted at that time showed that the existence of a strong leader, an unrestricted parliament or elections, would be supported by about 46 percent. surveyed

There is clear support for NATO, but there are limits to defense financing.

On the other hand, trust in the international institutions of the EU and NATO continues to grow, much more than trust in national institutions. It is especially emphasized that, in general, the Lithuanian population continues to be a strong advocate of NATO and EU membership in the country.

Compared to neighboring countries, according to the EU assessment, Lithuania is significantly ahead of them: in Estonia, confidence in the EU reached 60%, in Poland – 54%, in Latvia – 51%. The average confidence in the community was 44 percent.

Public dissatisfaction with some EU policies is relatively low, such as the 18% RESC survey. strongly agree or agree with the claim that the EU destroys traditional Lithuanian values. On the other hand, regarding the EU response to the COVID-19 pandemic, a minority was positive, with only a quarter of the RESC survey favoring the EU response to the pandemic.
True, only 26 percent. strongly agree or agree with the statement that the EU adequately responded to the pandemic.

At that time, support for NATO remains high, and that is the rule. A poll published by Pew Research in February 2007 showed that Lithuanians are among NATO’s biggest optimists: 77 percent. Respondents said they viewed the alliance positively. Only the Poles were more positive, with 82%. They said they had a positive view of NATO.

The RESC survey indicates that more than half of the respondents expect help from allies, 53 percent. I would think that if Lithuania were threatened, NATO countries would come to the rescue. About a fifth of respondents disagree with this statement.

Pew Research 2020 In a poll published in February, Lithuanians not only took a positive view of the commitments of other alliance members, but also took Lithuania’s commitment seriously: 51 percent. He said in a poll that Lithuania should, if necessary, help an attacked NATO ally with the armed forces.

However, there are already some differences of opinion on the specific commitments. The RESC study indicates that the commitment of NATO members to 2% 44% of GDP is backed by the country’s defense. 29 percent surveyed disagreed. This is a growing indicator: in 2018. Lithuania is only approaching 2 percent. Towards the threshold for GDP defense spending, the survey showed that 37% Respondents opposed the increase in the country’s defense spending and only a quarter of the country’s population supported it.

“Most importantly, we have strong public and political support for 2%. From the allocation of GDP for national defense and the record of public support for the military for several years.

NATO’s commitments to us are stronger than ever, but no one will defend us unless we defend ourselves and fulfill our obligations to the Allies.

Therefore, 2 percent. Defense is not negotiable. Both the security situation and COVID-19 have shown that a strong army is essential in any crisis. Even in times of crisis, the Allies are investing in our security, and we must invest in it.

Of course, the projected economic slowdown will inevitably affect all areas, including national defense, but we must not repeat the 2008 crisis.

Since 2014 the army is just beginning to sustain itself, so after budget adjustments, we need to optimize and ensure further growth of the army’s capabilities, “Minister of National Defense Raimundas Karoblis commented on the results of the RESC study. .

“Unfortunately, threats in the world and in our region are not diminishing. Perhaps, there are fewer emotions in the public space, but external threats have not changed and there is no downward trend in them. We must be vigilant and more Strong! Fighting spirit and high motivation can be a powerful counterbalance to the abundance of hostile forces or technological superiority. Therefore, it is important to us that much of society thinks positively about possible resistance, assesses the situation appropriately , which, at the same time, acts as a deterrent, ”said Lt. Gen. Valdemaras Rupšys, commander of the Lithuanian Armed Forces.

To date, increasing defense funding to 2.5% is even more critical. GDP Although most Lithuanian parliamentary parties have signed an agreement to reach 2.5 percent. until 2030 Currently, 2.5 percent. Only almost a fifth of the respondents supported the allocation of defense funds to GDP, and 44%. Respondents disagreed. Incidentally, these figures show a growth trend: in 2018, the approval of 2.5 percent. Defense GDP was only 14 percent.

“This issue is political, but to achieve a reliable deterrent, to create conditions to defend the Lithuanian state, sufficient investments are needed. 2014 The decisions on the financing, development and modernization of the national defense system provided excellent conditions for the development of military capabilities.

The increasing number of military personnel, new weapons and equipment, the storage and development of military infrastructure have raised the quality level of the state’s armed defense.

Maintaining these capabilities and capabilities, being ready to use them adequately and effectively for national defense is the highest priority of the Lithuanian Armed Forces for the next four years. Lithuania’s membership in NATO and the deployment of allied troops on the territory of our country is an essential deterrent to hostile forces, and the Lithuanian Armed Forces are an integral part of the deterrence plan, “said the general. Lt V. Rupšys.

Diplomatically he recalled that in the Lithuanian neighborhood there are states whose security and defense policy documents foresee it, and the available military capabilities allow to carry out military activities directly or indirectly directed against Lithuania.

“The main strength of a potential opponent is the ability to identify, create and exploit state vulnerabilities and ‘gray areas’. Another military threat is the opponent’s ability to maintain a sufficient number of combat readiness forces, as well as to quickly form and redeploy additional forces. A key factor is a particularly rapid and centralized decision-making process. Therefore, we must prepare ourselves responsibly and continue to modernize the Armed Forces and develop public resilience, “recalled the Commander of the Lithuanian Armed Forces.

“The public is critical, but we must understand that the need to dedicate at least 2% to defense.” of GDP and gradually increase them to 2.5%. It was not primarily due to commitments to partners, but to a radical change in the security situation.

We must not forget the lessons of Georgia and Ukraine. The threats are real and great, no one will defend us unless we defend ourselves. We must continue to seek public consensus that the decisions made by the political parties and the State Defense Council on a constant increase in defense funds to 2.5%. Ultimately, the public will understand and accept GDP as a prerequisite for a strong state, “added R. Karoblis.

Although little hope, most would object

And although he was satisfied with the growing support of the country’s population for the Lithuanian Armed Forces, according to Vilmorus in June, almost 62 percent expressed their support, only a fifth believed in the readiness of the military to adequately defend Lithuania.

According to RESC researchers, this may be related to Russia’s military capabilities in the region (for example, in 2018 Russia was reported to have more than 300,000 troops in the Western Military District alone) and to widespread international studies estimating that Russia it could hypothetically occupy the Baltic States in just a few days.

“On the other hand, these responses can be interpreted as an assessment that the Lithuanian Armed Forces still need to be strengthened, as in recent years the need to increase defense funding has been emphasized and thus compensate for the low allocation of funds after NATO membership in 2004. loopholes, “notes the study.

At that time, in R. Karoblis’s opinion, there is another factor: the real perception that the army lived for a long time during the famine and is far from reaching its maximum power.

“This shows once again that the modernization and development of the army is an absolute priority: a strong and modern army would directly increase the public’s faith in our ability to defend ourselves,” said the minister.

He also recalled another important factor in the context of the country’s defense and cited article 139 of the Constitution: “The defense of the State of Lithuania against foreign armed attacks is the right and duty of all citizens of the Republic of Lithuania” .

“The state must consider that the defense of the state is a duty not only of the army, but also of all citizens. It is important to present the awareness that it is not only possible to defend oneself with a weapon,” Karoblis said, emphasizing the importance of the system educational in the development of citizenship and patriotism, public resistance to fake news, cyber attacks and, of course, the army’s efforts to demonstrate its confidence.

However, the RESC survey itself shows that the population takes their determination to defend the state seriously. Again, this is a consistent pattern: More than half of the RESC respondents (62%) fully agreed or agreed. I agree with the statement that they are proud to be Lithuanian citizens. This issue is related precisely to the will to defend themselves and vice versa, with the myths that most of them simply flee the country.

The question of citizens’ willingness to defend their country was examined in detail by prof. In the book by A. Ramonaitė and other authors “Who would go to defend Lithuania? Preconditions and possibilities of civil resistance ”. The study results showed that many people in the country would not be inclined to move abroad.

64 percent. Respondents stated that, in the event of aggression, they are determined to remain in Lithuania, so it can be expected that they will not be executed en masse. It is important to note that the previous study did not find a correlation between the fact that a person has relatives / friends abroad and whether a person would flee the country in case of war.

This time, the RESC study found 58 percent. Respondents said that faced with a threat, being unable to resist a weapon would otherwise resist (the same numbers were in 2018). 32 percent Respondents said they would contribute to the country’s defense with weapons if necessary: ​​Compared to 2018, this number did not statistically change significantly.

A. Ramonaitė notes that during the Sąjūdis, no more than 40% of statehood was built and defended, especially in critical times, in various ways. Lithuanian citizens. As generations and people are changing, a similar number of people willing to defend Lithuania is a particularly positive indicator. It should be noted that 11% of those who said they would not contribute to national defense did so. surveyed, and 6 percent. supports any form of resistance (from guerrilla warfare to aid to the army), so around 90% Respondents will contribute to national defense in various ways.

He does not yearn for the Soviet era and he does not believe in Putin

Examining the Lithuanian attitude towards the Soviet era, the last three surveys carried out by RESC show the stabilization of the attitude towards the Soviet era. Respondents were asked the question: “Lithuania’s Soviet past is often discussed in public. Do you agree or disagree with the statement that in Soviet times it was better to live in Lithuania now?

This was fully supported or supported by 21%. respondents For comparison, the 2012 National Electoral Survey Survey at the end of the year showed 37 percent. Only 17% of the population fully agreed or agreed with the statement that “in Soviet times they lived better than in present-day Lithuania.” disagreed or strongly disagreed with that, with almost a quarter (23%) saying “neither yes nor no”.

2020 In the survey with the statement that living in the Soviet era was better, respondents with the highest education and highest income (501–700 Eur) disagreed. The representatives of the group with the highest education and the highest incomes (more than 700 euros) did not agree at all. Furthermore, people who express a negative attitude towards the Soviet era often have a neutral or positive opinion on the functioning of democracy in Lithuania. Attitudes toward the Soviet era also correlate with a favorable assessment of Russia’s foreign policy. Similar trends were observed in 2016. and 2018. research.

The RESC study points out that nostalgia for the Soviet era is characteristic of the so-called losers of the post-communist transformation: the Lithuanian population, who subjectively assesses their social status as the deterioration of other people after the collapse of the Soviet regime.

“Therefore, the assessment of the Soviet era is not directly related to a person’s current financial situation or social status. This is primarily a function of assessing changes in social status from one system to another,” said the study.

Finally, according to prof. According to A. Ramonaitė, in evaluating the Soviet era, the situation is often not considered from the perspective of the actions of the occupying power. Respondents appreciate what they did, how they participated in the process of building Soviet Lithuania. “And the fact that everything is dismissed as a major historical mistake means to them that their lives have been meaningless.”

The attitude of the population to the famous thesis of Russian President Vladimir Putin that the collapse of the Soviet Union is the greatest in the 20th century has hardly changed. geopolitical catastrophe. Only 9% strongly agreed or agreed, and 66% disagreed or strongly disagreed. In two years, the number of those who disagreed with the statement did not change compared to 2018.

Finally, 68 percent. Respondents said they were facing false news. It is true that more than half (52%) of them believe that Lithuania is successfully fighting hostile propaganda.

When looking for measures to combat disinformation, 60 percent. Respondents would support the initiative to create more arts and entertainment productions that promote patriotism. Another 52 percent. would support the restriction of unilateral transmissions from Russian television channels. A third of the respondents (33%) would agree that the transmission of Russian productions (movies, series) on Lithuanian television channels would be restricted.