What Lithuanians really think about Russia and Putin: Poll results send clear message to Kremlin

The study on geopolitics and international politics and threat perception presented at the Center for Eastern European Studies (RESC) on Friday is not the first similar work. However, it is based on the latest sociological data.

The study is carried out from 2020. April 22 to May 6. According to a questionnaire compiled by RESC, the survey was conducted by Spinter Research. The survey is representative, surveying 1,012 respondents (aged 18-75) living in Lithuania. To see the trends, the study repeats the questions from 2016. and 2018. analysis, as well as the inclusion in the questionnaire of new aspects that can determine the country’s geopolitics and security.

The study was prepared by the head of RESC Linas Kojala, specialists from this center Justinas Kulys, Andrius Prochorenko, Adam Roževič, edited by doc. Dr. Mažvydas Jastramskis. In evaluating the results of identical and similar research conducted in recent years, Lithuanians’ attitudes towards neighboring countries and their leaders have changed slightly, but even this small curve of change, according to L. Kojala, is eloquent.

“I think in general it can be said that in evaluating the results of identical and similar research carried out in recent years, the attitudes of Lithuanians towards neighboring countries and their leaders have changed little, but even this small curve of change is telling: Attitudes towards Russia and Putin are deteriorating. With Russia it remains high, “said L. Kojala.

US support is declining

One of the findings from the study on the friendliest countries and their leaders, and vice versa, on the friendliest countries and their leaders is not a big surprise.

Latvia is considered the friendliest country for Lithuania (93%). Germany is considered a friendly state by 87%. respondents, Estonia – 85%, Sweden – 84%, Ukraine – 81%, Poland – 74%, United States – 74%. It should be noted that the list of countries investigated was closed, which means that no opinions were sought on countries not mentioned in the list.

A more marked change can be seen in the case of the United States: in four years, the number of friendly evaluators in the United States has decreased. Although in the US almost three-quarters of the Lithuanian population is considered a friendly state, in 2016 the rate was 12 percent. higher. According to the study, this could be related to the personality of the President of the United States, Donald Trump: unlike his predecessor, Barack Obama, he is evaluated in Lithuania more negatively than positively.

True, L. Kojala noted that despite a statistically significant decline, three-quarters of the Lithuanian population in the United States is still positive, which is a very high result, higher than in similar studies in many other European countries.

On the other hand, despite highly visible US initiatives in the field of military security in the region and in Lithuania, only a minority of the Lithuanian population agrees with the statement that Lithuanian security was strengthened during the mandate Trump. Only 13 percent. He said that during this presidential term, Lithuania’s security was strengthened, and 39 percent. stated otherwise.

The fact that the budget for the European Deterrence Initiative, which funds the operations of US forces in Europe, such as the deployment of armored brigades and other units, was expanded during D. Trump’s term, did not impress the Lithuanians interviewed in Lithuania.

“He probably contributed to this with Trump’s diverse rhetoric, which was widely discussed in the media, often motivating the need to improve relations with Russia, as well as strong criticism of NATO allies.”

In the American leader’s thesis, the politics of this country seem less predictable and predictable. The arguments that many decisions have been made in recent years to strengthen American commitments to allies, including Lithuania, are valid. On the other hand, they demand to deepen the subject, and other American institutions, such as Congress, have played an important role in the decision on the EDI or the sanctions against Russia, “said L. Kojala.

The study showed that the United States presidential elections in 2020. In this context, the Lithuanian population is more positive about Joe Biden, a member of the Democratic Party who competes with D. Trump, who has visited Lithuania, although a significant number of respondents consider this policy neutral or have no opinion.

Still to be decided by China

There is a notable trend that the assessment not only of the US, but also of Poland and Belarus is declining. It is true that in the case of Poland, the decrease in the friendship assessment was less: more research will be needed to determine if it is significant (from 81% in 2016 to 74% in 2020).

There is less doubt about the decline in those who see Belarus as a friendly state: if it was 55% four years ago, then in 2020. – 44 percent. (Furthermore, during the same period, the proportion of those who classify Belarus as a hostile state has increased from 28% to 36%).

The Belarus case is said to be due to a higher threat assessment from the Astrava Nuclear Power Plant (NPP). 54 percent. Respondents agree with the claim that the Astrava nuclear power plant project poses a threat to Lithuania. Compared to 2018, this number has hardly changed.

Interestingly, China is also included in the survey (in terms of threats): 28% consider it a threat. Respondents On the other hand, 41 percent. Respondents do not consider it a threat.

The focus on China has certainly grown in recent years, from the conflict sparked by Chinese diplomats in Cathedral Square last year during a demonstration by Hong Kong protesters to the National Security Threat Report and, of course, the origin of China or at least the initial spread of the new coronavirus.

Despite these factors, the Lithuanian population still does not have a clear opinion on this country: 40 percent. When asked if Lithuania should prioritize economic interests over national security challenges in its relations with China, they replied that they neither agree nor disagree with this statement. 33 percent tended to emphasize economic relations, 21 percent. he would not want to differentiate the economy from national security interests. At the time, with another large country, things were much clearer for the Lithuanians.

Russia sees the biggest threat

Russia is still considered the most hostile country to Lithuania. This is due to several factors. Lithuania’s foreign policy towards Russia can be broadly evaluated by the attitude of the respondents to the statement “Lithuania’s foreign policy towards Russia is too strict”. The growing voices that Lithuania itself incites hatred and ruins relations with the Kremlin do not impress Lithuanians too much.

For example, in the past four years, the number of those who agreed that Lithuania’s policy is too strict has decreased (from 42% in 2016 to 32% in 2020), and the number of those who disagree with the statement has increased (from 24% in 2016 to 38%). percent in 2020).

In bilateral relations between Lithuania and Russia, the majority of respondents are Russia as the main actor that has a negative impact on bilateral relations (54% of respondents think so). Lithuania itself was named for having a negative impact on relations with Russia by 41%.

Also, 45 percent. According to respondents, Russia’s foreign policy represents a direct threat to Eastern European countries (43% in 2018), with 28% disagreeing. respondents (26% in 2018). Furthermore, the majority (64%) of respondents believe that Russia’s foreign policy represents a threat to Lithuania.

The Kremlin does not believe in tears: it did not deserve to lift the sanctions

Lithuanians are also unwilling to defend Russia in the international context, statements by Lithuanian diplomats that the Kremlin needs to maintain the strict EU sanctions imposed on Russia after the occupation of Crimea in 2014 seem to coincide with the opinion of the majority of respondents.

The number of supporters of the desire to maintain EU sanctions on Russia until the latter does not change its actions towards Ukraine, even if the sanctions would mean costs for Lithuania, has even increased in recent years. 41% were in favor, 30% against. 2018 When asked if sanctions on Russia should be lifted, 29 percent agreed. 34% of respondents opposed.

Thus, in 2020. Support for the lifting of sanctions has not changed significantly (up to 26%), but there is an increase in the number of those who do not (up to 43%).

On the other hand, the potential benefits of improving relations with Russia are perceived by asking the abstract question: would it be useful for Lithuania to improve political relations with Russia? 40 percent Respondents said it would be beneficial for Lithuania to improve political relations with this neighbor. True, this is almost a tenth less than in 2018. In two years, the proportion of the population that opposes such a statement has not changed significantly (in 2018 – 15%, in this year’s survey – 19%).

Respondents are also skeptical about the Kremlin’s propaganda campaign during the COVID-19 pandemic: only 17 percent. Russia’s assistance to foreign countries (medical equipment and goods) was considered benevolent assistance without political objectives, and 45 percent. objected Kremlin spokesmen constantly have the idea that NATO’s decision to deploy military forces in the Baltic States is an “unnecessary provocation by Russia”. Most of the Lithuanians surveyed did not like it: only 17% agreed. and almost half of the respondents opposed this statement.

Concerned about a possible war

However, in recent years, Russia’s foreign policy has become increasingly aggressive, and the demonstration of military power has also not gone unnoticed.

More than half (53%) of those surveyed believe that a larger (military) conflict between Western countries and Russia, 29%, is possible. take the opposite view. Russia’s behavior is cited as the main cause of a possible conflict: 51%. Respondents believe that such a conflict could stem from Russia’s aggressive foreign policy.

“The most likely interpretation of the geopolitical environment in Lithuania is that the situation is unstable and the Lithuanian neighborhood is not very friendly.

Furthermore, the great powers do not avoid disputes with each other, often emphasizing in the public sphere the “passing” of US and Russian forces a short distance from each other, increasing the risk of unintended confrontations with significant political consequences. The pandemic also did not unite the world, but only highlighted the differences we have seen in solving other problems as well, ”said the head of the RESC.

In fact, up to a third of respondents believe that the conflict would be the result of military confrontations between the West and Russia in other regions of the world (Syria) or as a continuation of ongoing conflicts (Ukraine).
Almost half of those surveyed that war between the West and Russia is impossible based their choice on the fact that both Russia and the West seek to resolve conflicts peacefully.

Those who believed that both Russia and the West sought to resolve conflicts peacefully were more likely to be surveyed in high school. Almost a quarter believe that Russia is not capable of a conflict of this magnitude, and 16 percent. he believes that the West would not dare to fight Russia.

“It is very important to note that this quantitative study and the analysis of the data collected in themselves do not provide academically sound interpretations of the responses. This requires a study with qualitative methods that would help to understand the situation of the respondents, the reasons for the answers, the reasons RESC plans to carry out such a study in 2021. It should be noted that in this year’s study, we discussed the possible “fatigue” of society towards Russia.

T.y. Diminishing focus on war in Ukraine in the public sphere, and long-standing sanctions against Russia, which have a negative impact on the EU and Lithuanian economies, may have led to a softer stance on the Kremlin. However, an educated assumption would suggest that the long-term problematic experience of Lithuania’s relations with Russia (disagreements over historical memory, the importance of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact), as well as regular international incidents related to Russia (the case of Poisoning by Skripal in the UK) Germany, Russia’s accusations against Russia of killing a Sakartwell citizen in Berlin Park, cyber attacks on Lithuanian officials and western countries, etc.). They create an undercurrent that the situation does not change substantially, “said RESC manager L. Kojala.

How dangerous is nostalgia for the Soviet era?

It is emphasized that, in general, the attitude towards Russia was strongly related to the person’s attitude towards the Soviet era and its relationship with present-day Lithuania. For example, those who agreed that it was better to live in the Soviet era were more inclined to treat Russia as friendly, to put Putin in a more favorable light, to believe in the objectivity of the Russian media, and to support narratives. favorable.

Although these latter attitudes are not popular in society at large, they can be strengthened by nostalgia for the Soviet era. In this regard, Lithuania has experienced the worst situation in the recent past: considering the change in pro-Soviet views in the last 12 years, the increase in Soviet nostalgia can be seen in 2008-2012. during the economic crisis

“It appears that it was then that Lithuania was potentially most influenced by propaganda. Russia’s aggression against Ukraine over time coincided with the fact that positive attitudes towards the Soviet era began to weaken,” the RESC study notes.

On the other hand, it emphasizes Lithuania’s attitude towards democracy, which has so far not changed in a positive direction.
Lithuanians remain skeptical about how democracy works in the country and the ability of ordinary people in the country to influence the decision-making process.

The youngest population in the country is more positive about the possibilities of influencing state policy, but the general trend has not changed significantly in a few years. Furthermore, people who are not satisfied with democracy, despite their attitude towards the Soviet era, are more favorable to Russia.

“Given the low level of trust in political institutions and politicians, as well as the low level of electoral activity in Lithuania, it can be said that dissatisfaction with democracy is unlikely to decrease significantly in the near future.

As a result, this may be one of the factors that will continue to spread propaganda; In addition to the values, the analysis also showed the importance of the information space.

Although the causal link is not obvious (perhaps people with pro-Russian attitudes simply choose relevant sources of information), the overlap in the statistical analysis shows: frequent viewing of Russian channels is associated with pro-Russian attitudes, especially if the person speaks Russian fluently, and those channels are one of the main ones. sources of information about Russia (and the world); Ethnic communities tend to view Russia’s relations with Russia, its leader, more favorably than the rest of the Lithuanian population, “the study notes.

For example, representatives of ethnic communities that earn less and do not live in Vilnius, regardless of their nationality, were often in favor of Russia. What is particularly interesting is that these two factors (location and income) were not significant in the general survey of the country’s population and did not differentiate respondents according to attitudes towards Russia.