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But experts say delaying the answer to the crucial question of who could change it could put Putin at risk of a long-standing political impasse that could lead to public dissatisfaction with the Kremlin.
A similar period of stagnation was the infamous “period of stagnation”, which lasted from the mid-1970s to the mid-1990s. This period of Leonid Brezhnev’s government accelerated the collapse of the Soviet Union and plunged Russia into years of chaos.
As then, so now, leaving the Russians without hope of change can be dangerous.
“The weakness of the regime is that it does not have a mechanism for the transfer of power,” said Maxim Trudoliubov, editor of the independent news portal Meduza.
The president’s environment “has absolutely no faith” in free and fair elections as a way to decide who can one day take over Putin’s power, he said.
“They just pretend to be immortal,” said Trudoliubov.
Putin, who has been in power as president or prime minister for 20 years, introduced a package of constitutional amendments in January that also included a populist guarantee to increase pensions and the minimum wage.
The amendments also provided for long-established Kremlin values to be enshrined in the constitution. One mentions the country’s “faith in God” and the other effectively prohibits same-sex marriage.
At the last minute, Putin, 67, endorsed another amendment that would cancel his previous presidency and allow him to remain in power until 2036. Putin’s critics have called the move a ploy to “remain president for life.”
“Failed” to carry out the reform
According to political commentator Tatjana Stanova, these amendments are much more than an extension of Putin’s presidency.
“We should not underestimate these reforms, all those amendments related to traditional values, social rights,” he said. – This is a way of cementing Russia as it is, [įtvirtinti] the current regime … to consolidate Putin’s legacy. “
Russian citizens supported the proposed reforms in a weeklong vote that ended on Wednesday. 77.92% voted in favor of the constitutional amendments. voters.
However, these pro-Kremlin results at a difficult time for Putin do not reflect the popularity ratings of the Russian leader.
In recent months, Putin’s popularity ratings have dropped to record lows of 59 percent. This was due in part to the government’s early introduction of measures in response to the coronavirus pandemic, but also to public dissatisfaction with the protracted economic hardships.
According to observers, Putin wanted to hold a vote more than a few years ago, declining-income Russians felt the effects of the coronavir pandemic on the country’s economy.
However, according to observers, the Kremlin may no longer be able to restructure the country’s economy and undertake long-awaited reforms that would return the president to at least some of his declining popularity.
Putin is “unable to undertake fundamental economic reforms,” said Alexander Titov, a policy expert and professor at Queen’s University Belfast.
“And if it doesn’t, the recession will start gradually … like [prie] The decline of Brezhnev’s stagnation, popularity and legitimacy in the eyes of the public, “he added.
Causing Putin to paranoia
Stanovaya agreed that the Putin administration could not improve economic efficiency or protect business for years to come.
“The most important thing for Putin now is to avoid at least one financial or social crisis,” he said.
Dissatisfaction is particularly felt among younger voters, most of whom, according to independent polls, are opposed to the reforms proposed in the vote.
Reviewers note that Putin did not include younger political figures in the ruling elite circle and is unlikely to be willing to hand over power to emerging politicians who can undertake reforms acceptable to younger voters.
“Generational change in Russia is long overdue. When and how it is only a matter of time,” said Trudoliubov.
The Kremlin’s determination to maintain the current status quo could “put Parano in paranoia” and “the situation will become increasingly fragile over time,” he said.
The longer the Kremlin delays the solution to the transfer of power in Russia, “the more abrupt the changes will be,” Titov warned.
“If you curb this need for too long, it will take much more radical forms than it would be,” he said.
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