Myopic and bloody Chinese games can change the entire balance of power

During British colonization, India was a source of opium supplied by foreign merchants to Chinese markets until a war finally broke out between the United Kingdom and the Qing dynasty, which ended in the humiliation of China.

Since India’s declaration of independence, relations between Tibet, Pakistan and the common border of the Himalayas have strained relations between Tibet and its larger neighbor.

1962 A war broke out between India and China over the Himalaya region, in which, more recently, 20 Indian soldiers were killed in a bloody confrontation.

Almost sixty years ago, 700 Chinese soldiers and almost twice as many Indian soldiers were killed in battles in a month. The fighting ended in a Chinese military victory. Beijing has secured effective control of the Aksai Qin region (to which both sides have claimed rights) and has declared a ceasefire, writes cnn.com.

But today’s national armies are very different from those that fought 58 years ago.

High in the mountains, where it is cold and low in oxygen, a brutal battle broke out between Chinese and Indian soldiers with fists and sticks.

This conflict could be a decisive event to bring India closer to China’s biggest rivals: the United States, Japan and the strengthening of Australia. India seeks to counter what many in the country see as Chinese aggression and will depend more than ever on new allies.

“The lives sacrificed by our soldiers will not be forgotten,” Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said on Wednesday. – The integrity and independence of India are paramount to us, nothing will prevent us from defending it, no one should doubt that. India wants peace. But provoked India will provide an appropriate response. “

Rahul Gandhi, the leader of the main opposition party in Congress, made a much clearer statement: “How does China dare to kill our soldiers? How dare they occupy our land?

China has a significant military advantage over India, but according to a recent study by the Harvard Kennedy School of Government’s Boston Belfer Center and the New American Security Center (NASC) in Washington, India has an advantage in high-altitude mountainous areas. like the one that took place.

According to a recent study by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), China has around 320 nuclear warheads and India halved around 150. According to SIRPI, both countries have increased their combat arsenal in the recent years, with Beijing increasing by 40 and New Delhi by 10. warheads

Both states have a “nuclear triangle”: missiles, bombers and submarines, both signed an agreement that promised to use nuclear weapons only in the event of a nuclear attack in their country.

In March, according to data released by the Belfer Center, India has around 270 fighter jets and 68 assault jets that it can use to fight China.

India also has several small aviation bases near the Chinese border where it can hold and refuel planes, wrote Frank O’Donnell and Alexander Bollfrass, authors of the study at the Belfer Center.

According to a study by the Belfer Center, China has 157 combat aircraft and a small fleet of assault drones in the region. The Chinese Air Force has eight bases in the region, but most of them are civil airfields at problematic altitudes, according to the study.

“Because China’s aviation bases in Tibet and Xinjiang are at high altitudes, and these regions have difficult geographic and climatic conditions, Chinese fighter jets can only fly half of their combat and fuel cartridges,” he said. the study.

According to a CNAS report, India has experience in air and ground combat operations gained from fighting in Kashmir, in shootings along the border with Pakistan and elsewhere.

According to the Belfer Center, India has 225,000 ground troops in the region, and China has between 200,000 and 230,000.

Faced with large-scale hostilities, it would be difficult for the Chinese to move troops to the Indian front, as India could fire high-speed railways from the air on the Tibetan plateau or in mountainous areas along the border.

According to the report, the Indian army is in a much more comfortable position.

Surrounded by China

The Hindustan Times wrote last Wednesday that “China wants to restrict New Delhi’s power and ambition; she wants India to recognize the supremacy of Beijing in Asia and beyond.”

The authors of the article called on New Delhi to double its association with the United States, strengthen its position in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (KSDA) and join all groups seeking to curb Chinese power, reports nationalinterest.com.

KSDA is an informal strategic group that includes the United States, Japan, Australia, and India. The group organizes semi-regular meetings, military exercises and exchanges information. It is not an official military organization like NATO, but to many it seems a possible counterbalance to China’s growing influence in the region and suspicion of aggression in the Asia-Pacific region.

KSDA members emphasize positive aspects of the relationship, such as recent cooperation in the fight against the coronavirus pandemic, but the countries’ military potential has not gone unnoticed by Beijing.

In 2007, after the first KSDA meeting, China sent official diplomatic protests to all members of the group, and in the same year, Australia withdrew from the group for fear of insulting Beijing. The Alliance was suspended until 2017. – It resumed meetings as concerns about China’s advantages in the South China Sea grew.

In fact, the US-led Chinese power-seeking bloc could be much larger than the KSDA. Speaking to N. Modi on the phone in June, the President of the United States, Donald Trump, invited India to attend the next G7 meeting. White House spokeswoman Kayleigh McEnany said the situation on the India-China border was also discussed during the conversation.

Trump previously mentioned his desire to expand the group to include allies from Washington, Australia and South Korea, and to “discuss the future of China” at a meeting scheduled for this year.

So far, India has tried too hard to get closer to the United States and reconcile these relationships with strong economic ties to Beijing. On the other hand, with increasing tensions on the border, now would be a good time to strengthen ties between India and the United States.

Washington would benefit from increased Indian involvement in KSDA and other military alliances, says foreign analyst Amrita Jash, who wrote a week ago that India’s strong position in the India-Pacific region would offset China’s growing position in the Indian Ocean. .

India’s greater communion with the KSDA or Washington would only happen if Delhi thought that relations with Beijing were no longer being repaired, on the other hand, it would cost a lot for both India and China.

According to N. Modi, India’s economic ties to China are strengthening. Both states represent 17.6 percent. World economy. 2017 and 2018 its trade amounted to 84 billion. On the other hand, it is only a small part of the trade between the United States and China, which amounted to almost $ 600 billion. Dollars
What is China looking for?

If the disagreements between India and China are real, if not a spontaneous border conflict, the question arises as to what are Beijing’s motives.

According to initial assessments by Chinese observers in the United States, Beijing is taking tougher measures, including recent efforts to further undermine Hong Kong’s autonomy. Observers say China exploits the leadership vacuum in Asia until the United States recovers from the coronavirus pandemic and sends a signal to neighbors that it is becoming the dominant power in the region.

On the other hand, there may be a mistake in treating the recent clash between Chinese and Indian troops as a broader form of Chinese aggression. In fact, there are indications that China is responding to unilateral measures taken by the US-backed India last year.

Last August, the Indian government revoked the formal autonomy of the Jammu and Kashmir region and annexed the disputed region, which had state status. New Delhi divided the former state into two regions: Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh. The latter is an area over which China has rights and has suffered recent Chinese incursions. In early June, Wang Wang, an author writing for China’s Economic Net, linked the annexation of Kashmir by India with recent actions along the True Control Line (LAC). According to him, New Delhi has involved China in the dispute over Kashmir and has made it very difficult to resolve Sino-Indian border problems.

He said Beijing’s official response to India’s actions against Kashmir was quite strong, on the other hand, many commentators see it as a symbolic move to favor ally Islamabad.
It appears that both New Delhi and Washington were greatly mistaken in predicting Beijing’s reaction to the annexation of Kashmir last year. Many US analysts viewed New Delhi’s actions as an effort to formalize the situation and ignored statements by Indian officials, as well as the country’s interior minister, Amito Shah, about extending power to parts of Kashmir controlled by China and Pakistan. .

Indian officials often speak of a two-front war with China and Pakistan. This scenario is unlikely in the near future, on the other hand, the Indian government, encouraged by the United States, runs the risk of deviating from nationalist policies if it does not reconsider its current regional policy. New Delhi will not be able to base its words on action, given the uneven strengths with Beijing and the growing synergies between China and Pakistan. India and the US do not see themselves as allies, so New Delhi would be wrong to expect Washington’s support. Chinese invasions along the True Control Line provide an opportunity for both India and the KAVs to pursue their policies in South Asia. This review should start with Kashmir.