What’s going on in Ukraine: Poroshenko, Zelensky’s revenge plan?



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On the one hand, Team Z’s entire electoral campaign was based on opposition to “old politicians”, promises of absolute modernization and a new system of popular power. In this regard, the word “judgment” sounded like an aphorism for the current political system embodied by Peter Poroshenko.

In a stricter sense, it was a threat to future prosecution. Before the elections, Poroshenko’s ratings plummeted in the context of the Ukroboronoprom (a state-owned company that unites the country’s defense companies) corruption scandal. Although the then president of the country did not participate in the scandal, many accusations were made against him: allegedly a fish rotting in the head, the abuse in the field of defense did not take place without the knowledge of the head of state and the government in general. is carrying out a war. With the last thesis, V. Zelensky was particularly interested in operating before the elections.

Just over a year has passed since Zelensky’s election as president. The Ukroboronprom scandal has been largely silenced: The company’s former CEO, P. Poroshenko’s former business partner, has been placed under house arrest, and the prospects for his criminal case are rather dim. Regarding the sentence against P. Poroshenko, there has been a recent trend towards a change of aphorisms to specific articles of the Penal Code.

Peter Poroshenko, Volodymyr Zelensky

Peter Poroshenko, Volodymyr Zelensky

In Ukraine, following the Maidan reforms, a new law enforcement agency, the State Bureau of Investigation (VTB), emerged, which is responsible for cases against high-ranking officials. It was this institution that became interested in the personality of P. Poroshenko, practically as soon as V. Zelensky was elected president.

At first he was called to declare, nothing concrete, on the other hand, gave the impression that the sins of the previous government would not be forgotten.

The VTB was established as an independent institution, far removed from the political influence that the Attorney General’s Office has constantly felt. And with a loud bang, with scandals. Former VTB chief Roman Truba has been the victim of an information leak. According to this material, he was only the driver of the political will of the then president’s cabinet chief, Andrius Bogdan, and of the disgruntled Yanukovich-era official Andrius Portnyj.

He did not appoint a new head of the office (he still replaces him), and the first deputy was Oleksandr Babikov, one of Yanukovich’s lawyers.

VTB is actively interested in the media: the office fighters break the door of the Ivan Gonchar Museum to present a message to P. Poroshenko (he was in the museum’s painting exhibition at the time), then a video appears with excerpts from the show “95 Quarter” on VTB’s official YouTube channel, and supporters of the former president are openly called “porochobots” (a nickname for this category of population).

VTB detectives invite large numbers of people to the interrogation, which was ignored by Mr. Poroshenko. His lawyers allege that the invitations were incorrectly executed, and the former president himself ironically says that he should be invited by a message instead of videos from the website.

There are currently two charges against Mr. Poroshenko, both allegations of crimes. The first is the appointment of Serhija Semočka as First Deputy Head of the Foreign Intelligence Service. According to the VTB version, S. Semočka was named in violation of the procedure, his duties doubled the existing ones, so the payment of his salary made the state 1.5 million. hryvnia (50 thousand euros).

Semoschka himself remembered V. Poroshenko during his presidency not as an explorer but as the hero of another scandal: a journalistic investigation by Denys Bihus showed that relatives of a force structure officer owned elite real estate for 8 million. dollars and they have russian passports.

The second indictment against Mr. Poroshenko is also related to the position: According to the VTB version, Mr. Poroshenko intended to take power and therefore blocked competition for the appointment of a Council member Supreme Law Enforcement (judicial self-government). The initiator of this has already been mentioned by A. Portnyj.

Poroshenko, with the light hand of Mikhail Saakashvili, received the despicable nickname “baryga”, which means insatiable oligarchy that benefits from war (Russian propaganda had also repeatedly used this image). The accusations are not as serious as those that sound in his speech from the lips of various opponents.

There are likely to be new cases: Pro-Russian forces have an interest in accusing Poroshenko of extradition (allegedly due to the publication of talks between Poroshenko and Joe Biden) or in prosecuting that in 2018. In November, the Russians hijacked Ukrainian ships in the Kerch Strait.

There is no lack of cases: those who want to sue and accuse the fifth president more than enough.

Mr. Zelensky has taken a promising position on the issue of prosecuting criminal politicians. Understand, there is a court, law enforcement agencies, they will find out, I have no right to intervene.

The same was said by Viktor Yanukovich during the trial against Yulia Tymoshenko. Zelensky expressed his true attitude towards his predecessor in a recent interview with Ukrainskaya Pravda: “He is an experienced manipulator and an experienced politician. Therefore, I do not believe him. He was cleaning (my feet) me, my family, all those “robot farms” … They were just hurting me, and that was the essence of all the falsehood they were spreading. “

On election day Poroshenko said she was ready to help Zelensky’s team, and more recently she went to the president and said, “I am not your enemy.”

However, the current president sees his predecessor precisely as an enemy and a competitor (despite a large gap in rankings). In the same interview with Ukrainskaya Pravda, Zelensky said that Poroshenko was behaving as if he was still president.

Such statements suggest that the current Ukrainian leader is certainly not against planting his predecessor behind bars and is ready to give the green light to the cases against Poroshenko.

Zelensky’s motives are simple and primitive: to implement his threats of “conviction” (part of the electorate will certainly appreciate it) and to eliminate the opposition leader. However, the cases against Poroshenko are more beneficial for the pro-Russian forces.

They will be comfortable with any scenario: They will view the “junta leader” sentence and imprisonment as a sign of further retaliation. Should the arrest of an opposition leader provoke massive protests and destabilize the situation in Ukraine, it may become an opportunity to remember Putin’s forgotten request to introduce troops.

Even though the current leadership has every chance of getting the same rake, as Yanukovich did at the time when the persecution of Tymoshenko started, there is some chance today of avoiding this scenario. One of Poroshenko’s strengths has always been foreign policy, and he still has many friends in the West today.

Former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen and former Ukrainian Ambassador to Canada Roman Vashchuk have already expressed their support for him, saying the persecution of Poroshenko is political revenge.

If the accusations against the fifth President of Ukraine acquire the characteristics of specific legal procedures, the possible sentence of which may be the deprivation of liberty, support for him will be expressed not only by the former but also by the current politicians, the same happened in the Tymoshenko’s case.

The only difference is that Yanukovych, who depends on Russia, could ignore Western opinion. V. Zelensky’s situation is different: the opinion of the West is important to him.

This is evidenced by the recent adoption by the Rada of the so-called “anticolomiosis law”, a document that prevented the revision of Privatbank’s nationalization.

The bank was owned by Ihor Kolomoisk, an oligarch who until recently was considered one of the closest people to Zelensky.

It means that if the President of Ukraine hears warnings from American and European partners about political repression, he will probably refuse to directly implement his phrase: “I am your sentence.”

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