Girnius on the United States presidential election: if trends are confirmed, it will be an unprecedented result

The vote will not be just for the presidency, but for a number of important presidents in the Senate and the House of Representatives.

Until recently, reelection seeker Donald Trump seemed to be in a pretty comfortable position, doubling out loud the accomplishments of the stock exchanges, low unemployment, and an overall growing economy. And then there was the pandemic. And while almost no one could blame the US president for a virus pandemic that surrounds the world, more and more Americans are negative about the US government’s response to the virus threat.

Initially shaking hands with the virus, D. Trump said it was just a terrible flu-like infection and promised that he would not stay in his country until the summer. By the summer, the US had already killed 125,000. the citizens. After the pandemic closed, or at least significantly reduced world trade, the US economy contracted 5 percent in the first quarter, and 47.2 million Americans lost their jobs as a result of the crisis. Unlike Europeans, job losses in the US are often accompanied by loss of health insurance, as they are generally provided by the workplace.

Smells like crush

The situation has caused considerable headaches for Trump, who has been in the White House for another four years. Recent voter polls are relentless, and Real Clear Politics, the portal that averages all national polls, reports that Democratic candidate Joe Biden has 9.5 percent. advantage over your opponent.

Political reviewer Kęstutis Girnius says that if things don’t improve quickly, D. Trump is in danger of being crushed. “Recent polls show that Trump is almost 15 percent behind. If this were confirmed in the fall, it would be an unprecedented victorious victory for Democrats. People dissatisfied with Trump’s actions, the farm has declined and is not recovering as quickly as expected, the pandemic has not been controlled. Short tried for a time to deny that it existed, then explained that everything would be resolved immediately and, in the meantime, more than 120,000 died. And it did not adequately respond to demonstrations and protests, emphasizing exceptional cases of violence rather than peaceful protesters. Blacks never liked it, most women were reluctant to vote for it, and now about half of white men are also frustrated with it and no longer support it. If things don’t change, Short will be crushed. In February, before the pandemic broke out, it was believed that it would win, the farm prospered, people were satisfied enough with the administration, “said K. Girnius.

Typically, a president seeking reelection has many advantages over his opponents and hardly ever loses. George H. W. Bush, re-elected, last experienced such a failure in 1993. However, the situation is different this time.

Joe Biden is also considered an associate professor at the Vilnius University, Institute of International Relations and Political Science, Mažvydas Jastramskis. “I would consider it a favorite. In fact, before the coronavirus, before the racial equality protests, he would have said the possibilities were similar, or Trump would even lead. It must be understood that there are two large groups of people in the United States who will not change their minds: Trump’s Republican supporters and Democrats. We are talking here about a small percentage of voters in specific fluctuating states who can change their minds. American voters are also said to be nearsighted, seeing trends for months before the election. And those trends a few months before, and we’re not even talking here about Biden being a very suitable candidate, but those few months before the election trend are very unfavorable for Trump. The economy is shrinking, there are protests, the coronavirus is still out of control. And here I want to say that this is not so much a vote for Biden, but a vote against the Trump administration. Those prospects are now favorable for Biden. Like Trump, he was in favor of voting for the Democrats who ruled the presidency 8 years ago, ”the political scientist told Delfi.

The situation is particularly complicated in the six volatile states where Trump celebrated the victory over Clinton in 2016. According to usatoday.com, Biden leads in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida, Arizona and North Carolina. Furthermore, its prevalence in these states averages 9 percent. A recent FOX News poll shows Biden leading even in the Red Fort, Texas, where the former vice president has a fragile and error-prone 1 percent. predominance.

“According to media reports, he (D. Trump – Delfi) seems confused. However, it would be helpful if the economy started to recover in September, the number of unemployed would start to decline if economists claimed things would recover. rapidly and they would continue to grow, but the farm is unlikely to recover as quickly. If the coronavirus is depleted, if the number of infections drops significantly, perhaps, “said K. Girnius.

“I think the main difference is that there was a lot of discussion about the polls and election forecasts throughout that election campaign, because you probably remember that most of the polls showed Clinton’s victory, but Trump won,” Jastramski said. In 2016, most national polls on Election Day showed that H. Clinton had 2-3 percent. advantage over your opponent. A count of the votes revealed that he received 2.8 million more votes, but those votes came from states that have fewer representatives in the College of Electors. D. Trump’s victory was guaranteed by achievements in fluctuating states.

“And now what’s interesting is that most polls show that Biden’s advantage is considerable, but Biden himself spreads the message that you don’t look at polls, go to polls and vote for me.” The number doesn’t matter. He seems to have paid close attention to the fact that those polls would not put his voters to sleep. Pay close attention to mobilization, ”said Jastramski. If you look at what he’s writing on Facebook, he says don’t watch it, it’s important to work and make sure you go to the polls. “

It can be ruined

Although Biden still enjoys a solid lead in the polls, he still has plenty of time before Election Day. The turning point in the campaign could be three debates agreed by both candidates. According to K. Girnius, two aspects are the most important here. “The most important thing would be if Biden himself, who is older, made many mistakes. He’s been chatty many times, so he can go bankrupt. He has repeatedly had what they call “senior moments” during his election campaign, when he forgets a sentence, gets confused, gets fucked, etc. If, during those next three debates, Biden made so many mistakes that people would begin to think he was not fit to be president because he was already on the way to adoption. And if the protests, the demolition of the monuments, continue, and if there is a greater outbreak of violence, people might think that it takes a strong hand for Democrats to support criminals. This is if the farm recovers, if it turns out that the coronavirus situation improves, if there is more violence, and most importantly, if it turns out that Biden is still too old, ”K. Girnius described a scenario favorable to D. Trump.

“Biden is not yet running an election campaign. He sits at the house, picks up money, and talks only to friendly journalists who don’t ask those serious questions. Short proposed to have four debates instead of three, but Biden declined. If he is prepared enough for those three debates you can’t avoid, the victory will be yours. If you don’t fail during the debate, it will all be over for Trump, “said K. Girnius.

However, Jastramski has a different opinion. According to the interlocutor, the debate is often considered important for the outcome of the elections, but there is no evidence to support it. “The popular opinion is that the debate is really important and that it changes the opinion of some people.” And in this regard, Trump may have a favorable debate, he may try to dominate against Biden in sharper and harsher expressions. On the other hand, however, from what I had to read more scientific evaluations, it was not in the presidential elections that the debate changed anything fundamentally. For the past 20 years, there have been no elections in which the debate has reversed longer-term trends. It is unclear whether these elections will be the ones to change that. I would like to see maybe not more, “said the scientist.

Deeper division

Choosing a new coronavir virus in the country could be a great challenge. Voting by mail would seem like a logical way to limit crowds at the polls, but Trump is vehemently opposed. On his Twitter account, he even said that voting by mail would make the elections “the most rigged” in the country’s history.

Because of MAIL TICKETS, 2020 will be the MOST DIFFERENT choice in the history of our nations, unless this stupidity ends. We voted during WWI and WWII without a problem, but now they are using Covid to cheat using Mail-Ins!

– Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 22, 2020

According to K. Girnius, such a desire to restrict remote voting has clear political calculations. “His constituents and his electorate are much more enthusiastic in the elections. If Election Day is smooth or the sun shines, they will go to the polls. And Biden voters, especially Latin Americans, blacks vote less consistently. If, if they can vote by mail, they would have a lot of time, someone could come and give them a ballot after completing the expulsion. And at another time, there may be problems in the constituency that the person is not properly registered, does not have the required document , etc., ”said the interlocutor.

It is not just about the postal vote being debated. Observers observing the situation in the US have been highlighting the widening gap between the Democratic and Republican camps for some time, and Trump is doing his best to widen that party gap. In such an environment, it is easy to mobilize your constituency, but everything becomes part of the cultural wars. Even something like wearing masks becomes part of the party’s calculations when D. Trump and his administration clearly do not follow the requirements for wearing masks in public places and ridicule Biden for wearing a mask.

“You have to keep in mind that the United States’ presidential election campaigns have been very good and the last two decades have witnessed such polarization.” Democrats and Republicans are supporters of different attitudes, different points of view. Current issues clearly contribute here: the crown, the economic crisis, protests for racial equality have deepened the differences between the parties and between the electorate that existed before. On the other hand, it is clear that since that electoral campaign is now more Internet-oriented, it may be less visible at that real level of polarization, “said M. Jastramskis.