Kedainiai does not fall in the zone rich in natural phenomena, but the storms are becoming increasingly terrible

Natural phenomena occur every year.

“The most common natural summer phenomenon that meets the criteria for a natural meteorological phenomenon is very heavy rain, and it must fall at least 50 mm in 12 hours or less. And if, say, more than 80 mm, it is already a catastrophic phenomenon (equivalent to approximately 80 liters of water per 1 square meter).

This is a really big quantity, because, for example, the norm in June in Lithuania is 75 mm ”, the interviewee began to tell about the verses.

According to I. Marcinonienė, one of the most dangerous natural phenomena of summer is a whirlwind.

“It is rare, but this year we already had it: on June 8, there was a whirlwind in the Šakiai district. This is a wind that must be at least 28 m / s.

It is caused by strong convection during the warm season and generally in the afternoon, when the air temperature is highest. And if it is 33 m / s, it is already catastrophic – continued the specialist. – Squal is also a wind, but its nature is a little different than a whirlwind. However, it must also be 28 m / s and stronger to be described as a natural phenomenon.

Scales are most common during thunderstorms and there is a strong momentary wind. And a whirlwind occurs when such a “sleeve” descends from a storm cloud, hits the ground and twists it with great force, shuffles, knocks down roofs, and travels somewhere in a narrow area.

Not all eddies hit the ground and then they are not dangerous, sometimes they rise above the water, forming picturesque fountains. ”

Very heavy hail, according to a LHMT representative, is also classified as a natural phenomenon.

“If the size of the ice reaches 20mm, then we are already saying that it is a very heavy hail.” It has also fallen in our country during the stormy period from June 7 to 9 of this year.

Another phenomenon that is causing a lot of change, a convection storm, which includes dangerous rain, thunderstorms, hail, hail storms, has already visited some regions of Lithuania this summer. “

He listed these natural phenomena of the warm period, according to experts, they occur every year except the hurricane. It is rare, but we have about thirty of them since 1961, when they started capturing.

“It is true that natural phenomena also include heat.

Last year, for example, we already had natural heat in June and the absolute record for June was broken.

And this year, so far 31 degrees of heat have been reached in Švenčionys, but this is just the beginning of summer and hot days before our eyes.

It has never been hotter that month since 1961.

Kaišiadorys measured a heat of 35.7 degrees on June 12 of last year. And this year, so far 31 degrees of heat have been reached in Švenčionys, but this is only the beginning of summer and hot days before our eyes, ”explained I. Marcinonienė.

Natural meteorological phenomena are caused by the tropical climate.

After reviewing statistics since 2001, an LHMT spokesperson noted that more than half of natural phenomena occur in the summer.

“For example, last year out of ten, even six were in the summer. And most of those events in the summer, probably 70-80%. – are related to the entry of tropical air into Lithuania and the Baltic States.

This is when the warm weather comes from the south or southeast. Its property is that it can store a lot of moisture in itself.

Cold air does not retain much moisture and it immediately begins to rain, and warm air accumulates a lot and, under certain conditions, spills relentlessly in certain places.

As a result, these rains are much stronger, I. Marcinonienė explained the reason for the formation of natural phenomena. – This is not typical of our climate zone (we live in a temperate climate zone). It is southern air with meridian atmospheric circulation.

Our region is characterized more by the western zonal circulation.

When the tropical air mass warms up to 30 degrees and above, and with strong peaks reaches high layers, it forms powerful clouds, at whose peaks the air cools to 70-80 degrees at an altitude of 15-16 km, a difference over 100 degrees.

The clouds cool to ice, and the cold air is heavy and falling, and those crystals cling to each other, forming large hail glaciers in various ways that do not melt and fall to the ground as they fall.

The largest hail (including 7-12 cm pieces) was recorded in 1995. July 10 in Vištytis “.

The interlocutor explained that similarly, fissures occur when there are very strong winds during an electrical storm.

“Simply setting your speed in different places is not easy because it does not necessarily reach the measurement station.

The hurricane can be determined by the extent of the destruction. If you cut down the trees, you took off the roofs; you immediately see that there was great strength.

And failure is such a momentary phenomenon: Increased wind before, during, or after a thunderstorm is necessarily related to rainball clouds, said I. Marcinonienė. – They are high and the cold peaks of the clouds fall, and if the conditions are favorable, i. and. even with a strong wind on the ground, then it goes into double force.

As we call it, the “digging effect”, and it sweeps everything on the way.

For example, how can one distinguish where there was a defect and where the whirlwind? The whirlwind twists everything, it is ejected, there is no order, and the fault establishes trees or something, just like the domino effect.

The worst whirlwind occurred in 1981. on May 29 in Širvintos, where not only much damage was caused, but one person was also killed. “

Kedainiai is one of the calmest districts.

LHMT chief The specialist points out that hurricanes and hail are among the most local and short-lived phenomena. Therefore, it is very difficult to predict them.

“It just caught our eye then. So it’s very difficult to determine exactly where they may be.

For example, a large hail on one side of the same garden may have fallen and destroyed everything, and on the other, as nowhere, because it only covered that area.

That is why they are called natural, because they are rare, but they cause a lot of damage, “said the interlocutor.

Kedainiai does not fall in the area of ​​the elements. According to I. Marcinonienė, this is one of the calmest districts.

There is a Dotnuva weather station in the area, which has recorded the strongest rain since 1961, and the heaviest rain in 2009. Just before Jonines, on the morning of June 23, when it was almost 5 p.m. even 74mm of rain fell.

“The most troublesome areas are where the hottest are southern and eastern Lithuania. I am talking about those verses that are related to the summer phenomena.

This is also influenced by population density.

Central Lithuania is not a densely populated region. But there are exceptions, for example, in the Kaunas district we often observe all kinds of phenomena. There may be more active people living there, and more often they send us information and photos.

Perhaps the same phenomenon passes through the Kėdainiai district, but there were no settlements there, fewer forests where obvious damage can be seen, fewer people live and sent nothing.

For example, northern Lithuania also has a small population, which means that it is less guarded than southern or eastern Lithuania, “said the specialist.

Residents are encouraged to become observers of the weather.

I. Marcinonienė also recounted his observations regarding the elements.

“I have reviewed the ‘actions’ of the verses in terms of population density. Where there is more population, there are more phenomena. Because there are 29 stations in the country and only nine of them with” live “observers, i. Employ people and the remaining twenty are fully automated.

This means that they do not always observe all the phenomena well. In general, there are not enough stations to monitor that and, for example, hail or a whirlwind.

Such things are generally recorded and sent to us or to the media by the residents themselves, the interlocutor said. – You can even encourage your readers to send images of various phenomena to meteo.lt or our Facebook profile.

Specialists from the Lithuanian Hydrometeorological Service analyze photos or videos and descriptions sent by people, taking into account the synoptic situation, and use them as official information.

In the past, there was even an observer to visit the area, and now there are no such things.

It is great that people are now mobile, have phones, cameras, and most importantly, are interested in what is happening in nature. He films us, sends us, and we include that information in the statistics. “

According to the expert, in some countries, older people who are specially trained for such work are even used to control the climate.

“In Austria, for example, I know that there are volunteer climate watchers. Staff meteorologists retire or older people who enjoy observing nature, its phenomena, the weather, even receive courses on how to measure rain, have a special bucket or how to measure wind speed and where to get information. He is not a paid employee, but people have that kind of additional occupation.

Then your information is placed on the web page as so-called metadata, which indicates who, where, and how much was measured.

It is fun for people to include their data.

There could be something like that in Lithuania too, but it takes enthusiasts of those people and money to provide them with devices.

Schools could do the same, as they did (perhaps now) a good decade ago, for example in Norway. Let’s say it is a matter for the future, “said an LHMT spokeswoman.

Most of the verses were in 2011 and 2012

I. Marcinonienė warns that natural phenomena do not increase, but they are extreme. They become painful, with great losses.

“If we look from 2001 to 2019, the most natural phenomena were in 2011 and 2012. There were 20 and 21 events per year, respectively. And, for example, in 2011 there were up to 17 events during the summer, and in 2012, fourteen events during the summer, with an average of 6-8 natural events on average during this period.

Why this was the case that year, the only explanation would be that it was a very “hot” tropical year, “said I. Marcinonienė.

It is difficult to say whether there will be more natural phenomena in the future, he said.

“I was on a course on climate change last summer. They have a tendency for cyclones not to multiply, but they have become more threatening, more energetic.

Glaciers are melting, the taiga is being destroyed, and the tundra faces major problems with the depletion of the permafrost layer and with the release of methane gas and the intensification of the greenhouse effect.

It is said that in 2050 there will be a massive melting of the glaciers, and by 2100 there will be no more ice in the Arctic. The thermal difference between north and south will decrease, which determines the directions of atmospheric circulation.

Climate change in the Arctic is also changing the climate around the world.

Let’s say that when we were 25-30 degrees hot this June, at that time it was constantly raining and it was cold in southern Spain, Portugal, France and southern Germany, on 15 or 17 degrees.

There must still be a balance between nature and the atmosphere, “said the specialist.

People need to be careful. As I mentioned, the verses intensify, do more damage.

However, she is convinced that the verses are really related to climate change.

“If, for example, there was rain in the past when 30mm was added, it was obviously already dangerous, 50mm was a natural phenomenon, but it was rare and covered less territory.” And now those areas have expanded and not 70mm, but 70mm often fall in more than one place. The losses are also much greater then. ” I. Marcinonienė shared his future forecasts.

the future is in our hands

What more can you expect in the future, apart from the elements already rampant in our country?

“People have to be careful. As I mentioned, the verses intensify, they do more damage.

Now people have more properties: all kinds of equipment, items: trampolines in the patio, private boats, planes, etc. “They should be stored, used safely and stored according to weather forecasts,” advised the interviewee.

In general, the specialist pointed out that the well-known greenhouse effect, emissions, excessive consumption and garbage and the like have a great impact on nature and adverse climate change.

“The more a person interferes in the processes of nature, the more difficult it is to predict what awaits us. But otherwise, if the average annual temperature in the world increased by one or one and a half degrees now, the consequences would be catastrophic if It will increase by two. Therefore, the states are discussing how to reduce this contamination so that the temperature does not rise to a catastrophic level, “said the interlocutor.

Interesting data

The longest summer was in 2018. It was very hot that summer and lasted 137 days. And last year, 120 days. The summer season begins when the average daily temperature reaches 15 degrees or more.

In 2009, the summer lasted only 68 days.

Droughts are also a natural phenomenon. In 2018, when the summer was hot, the drought started on June 8 and ended only in late July. And the longest and most damaging drought was in 1992. It lasted from May 14 to August 31 – 110 days.

Natural phenomena that occur outside of summer include winds, frost, snow, blizzards, sparks, and more caused by cyclonic weather fronts.

Frost is usually a phenomenon in spring and autumn. However, we have cases where there have been frosts and summer. For example, on June 18, 2009, ground surface frost had cooled to -2 degrees in the western and northern districts.

On June 28, 2017, there was -1 degree of cold in Raseiniai.

On August 19, 2015 the weather station in Varėna recorded a -1 degree frost.

Las Speigas occur when the air temperature drops to -30 degrees and below and lasts for 3 days. The last time speigas were recorded was in early February 2012, the cold period lasted from February 2 to 5. Cold temperatures of 30 to 33 degrees were measured on those nights.