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Although in some places, such as Denmark, COVID-19 is already recognized as a seasonal disease, experts do not hide that, in any case, outbreaks in various parts of the world will not be avoided for some time.
Recently, the head of one of the vaccine manufacturers also spoke about the possible scenario of a possible COVID-19 pandemic. Stephane Bancel, director of Moderna, said the coronavirus pandemic could end next year. According to him, such a course of events is possible due to increased production of vaccines, which will ensure global demand.
The last season so difficult
According to the former director of the Center for Infectious Diseases and AIDS, prof. Saul Čaplinskas, currently predicts that the upcoming winter season should be the last such difficult period.
“Some people have been given false hopes and false expectations, the belief that if they have already been vaccinated or become ill, it is no longer possible to protect themselves,” said S. Čaplinskas.
“Why? Because still a large part of the population will get vaccinated or get sick. Unfortunately, some will not survive. The predictions are that in a few more years the virus will not disappear, it will cause certain” fires “in one place or another, both more so since it will not be the case that the populations of all countries and of the entire world will do so immediately, acquire strong immunity.
Then there will always be such fires, less and less, less losses until it becomes one more cause of the cold season, which is activated during the cold time of the year, but, as we can see, it can circulate throughout the year ”. commented.
Did Opportunity Passport support the service?
Why has the situation especially deteriorated in recent weeks? After hearing this question, S. Čaplinskas stated that there is a concrete example where several influencing factors coincided.
“The first thing, however, is that some people have been planted with false hopes and false expectations, the belief that if they have already been vaccinated or become ill, they can no longer protect themselves. And so it happened: some people began to lose protection.
Next, even though many people are sick or vaccinated, there is still room for the virus to spread. And the third circumstance is that the virus has mutated so now it is much shorter to stay next to an infected person, it is enough to inhale much less of the virus for the infection to occur. And an infected person secretes 10 times more of this strain of the virus at the same time as in the case of the Wuhan strain, “he said.
According to the interlocutor, for these reasons, the virus is spreading even faster than last season, despite the fact that some people have acquired immunity.
“The reality is that even if people who have acquired immunity, if they receive a high enough infectious dose of the virus, the virus can still start to multiply in their airways and they can still spread the virus. The only difference is that it is much more. shorter than people who do not have any immunity, “said the infectious disease specialist.
The professor agreed that for some, the passport of opportunity played a bearish service: “In the short term a positive result has been achieved for some people, but in the long run, those who misinterpreted this message can have the opposite effect.”
Very little experience
When asked if it is realistic to consider that after vaccinating a sufficient number of people next year, more of the coronavirus will be talked about as a seasonal disease, LSMU professor Mindaugas Stankūnas said that he really wants to believe in it.
“There are many different opinions and forecasts, but the situation is really changing a lot. In the summer, we had to read an excellent analytical article in which it was mentioned that we were referring to past experiences when it comes to measures, results, results, results, etc.
But this experience is completely new and we cannot 100 percent. Tell me what it will be like. But I want to wait for that, because I think everyone is tired, both the government representatives and the experts. Therefore, we really want to hope that such forecasts come true and everything ends, “said a member of the Advisory Council of Independent Experts on the TV3.lt portal” Dienos Pjūvis “.
The unvaccinated will inevitably encounter the virus.
Under his authority, Euromonitor International’s director of data science, dr. Vaidotas Zemlys-Balevičius also wanted to postpone the apocalyptic scenarios and believes that next fall will be brighter.
“All pandemics do not last decades, that is, two, three, four years. And it ends when there are no more people who have not seen the virus. That is what we now have, something so magical: vaccines, when we don’t have to. And we still have the delta strain, which unfortunately speeds up all those “dates” of people with the virus.
Even looking at the numbers in Lithuania, those who have not been vaccinated will inevitably get sick. This is the saying that in 2022, a pandemic is very likely to diminish and its scale will be significantly smaller. Of course, with all the predictions, there is the problem of what kind of cataclysm can occur if, for example, a new strain accidentally arises that will be as contagious as a delta, but the current immunity would not apply to it. It would be a new game again, “commented the data analyst.
At the same time, he recalled that although current vaccines for the original version of the virus perfectly handle the new delta strain, RNA vaccines can be modified accordingly.
So, rejecting the apocalyptic scenario, which is unlikely, life seems optimistic and next fall 2022 may be quite calm or it will be similar to the flu epidemic, which we have already had and which will not cause problems of this magnitude, “he explained. V. Zemlys-Balevičius.
The duration of the “strong” booster dose has not been answered.
When asked when the grueling COVID-19 pandemic could end, infectious physician prof. skilled. Dr. Vytautas Usonis joked that this is a question worthy of the Nobel Prize.
“It just came to our attention then. Industrialized countries have reached a stage where it is known that people should be vaccinated in the first cycle of one or two doses. We also know that a booster dose is necessary at 6 months. “he commented.
The doctor pointed out that the booster dose is nothing new and suggested checking the children’s vaccination schedule.
“Obviously, it is not a matter of a season that with this infection we simply have to learn to live,” explained V. Usonis.
“There are primary vaccines and booster doses. We have known this for decades. However, in the case of COVID-19, the duration of immunity after the booster dose is not yet known. We don’t know because we just started vaccinating it. a month or a few ago.
Here again, all kinds of discussions, various arguments, are boiling over, but in a biological sense we don’t know. In comparison, after booster vaccination, immunity is maintained for 10 years, for whooping cough for 5 to 7 years, and for tick-borne encephalitis for 3 years. We will only know how long immunity lasts in the case of COVID-19, “said V. Usonis.
CUT OF THE DAY. We have avoided quarantine, but for a long time: how will we continue to manage the pandemic?
Controls Alphabet
The interlocutor also pointed out that, in any case, mass vaccination is just one component that comes out of the clutches of a pandemic.
“The classics of any communicable disease are the three drivers, the three components of the epidemic process: the origin of the infection, the routes of transmission and the susceptible society. We have the tools for all three directions. For the detection of infection – tests, for the control of transmission routes – masks, disinfectants and quarantines, if we do not have other means, and when working towards a receptive society, the main component is vaccination ”, he explained . the doctor.
According to him, when greater public immunity is created, then other measures can be abandoned, but today it is difficult to say when it will be.
“After all, I really don’t understand that hysteria in Lithuania about masks. Here in Portugal, where the COVID-19 management strategy is different, there are repealed requirements, but people wear a mask when they go to public places. Like I’ve already said it many times, I don’t wear the mask because the boss ordered it, but I know that it increases my security, ”said V. Usonis.
In conclusion, the professor stated that the development of the pandemic will largely depend on how rationally the above driving instructions are followed.
“We need a balance between these tools. And today, when observing the experiences of different countries, we see that the practices are very diverse. Obviously, it is not a matter of a season that we will simply have to learn to live with this infection,” explained the doctor .
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