The data scientist considers the situation to be very serious: a week or two ago there was still a spark of hope

The Euromonitor International analyst spoke about the figures of the pandemic in Delfi rytas on Monday. V. Zemlys-Balevičius made calculations that would help to imagine when the peak and end of this pandemic wave can be expected, assuming that vaccination rates will remain the same as now.

According to him, in order to register 90% of the youngest population in the age group. Vaccination will take some time, but it is needed even more in the group of older people.

“Those calculations show problematic age groups. We have a group of 30 to 39 years with 11 weeks left up to 90 percent. indicator, and in the 80+ group you have between 30 and 40 weeks, because there the vaccination rates are slow ”, said the researcher in the program.

He stressed that those estimates are just one illustration of the current growth in cases.

“When it starts to shrink and there are no more people to get sick, then we see a fall. So far we don’t see it. We have all the signs of growth. Even a week or two ago, we were able to talk about something being a spark of hope. Last week’s data showed we’re serious gas and we do not pretend to forgive. Unfortunately, it is too early to talk about the peak, ”said V. Zemlys-Balevičius.

Extensive immunization, he said, if the population continues to be vaccinated, it could be achieved after 3-4 months, but, as the analyst repeated, this is just a statistical illustration.

“This season is probably the last time we will get pregnant or get vaccinated. Now we see from the number of diseases that the situation is getting worse, but people are still not vaccinated. This means that it has to get worse for the desire to arise. If there is no desire, we will simply wait until everyone gets sick, “said the analyst.

He also commented on the proposal to release all restrictions on the pandemic so that people could become infected with COVID-19 by gaining immunity or dying from the coronavirus.

“It just came to our knowledge then. On the other hand, some people, politicians and the opposition have that proposal, forgive everything, because there is no struggle, there is no disease here. We can try, but someone has to take political responsibility, because there will be a large increase in deaths ”, emphasized V. Zemlys-Balevičius.

In that case, he said, hospitals will not be able to accept other patients and will be the same as in India at some point.

“When there are deaths, then they will say why the state is not doing anything. The state cannot do anything ”, emphasized the interlocutor.

Therefore, continued V. Zemlys-Balevičius, those speakers must think.

“It is very pleasant to criticize the Government, but it is necessary to understand the essence of the proposals. If the essence of their proposals, in addition to the criticism of the Government, is “that everyone dies freely”, a proposal like this has been made here, it means that we will see the number of deaths.

The 80 deaths per day will be just good memories, they will be significantly bigger. Do we want that? Is it really worth allowing people who haven’t been vaccinated to die and see the price of freedom? “The price of freedom is death, and when it comes, you realize that the price is too high,” said the participant.

He said low vaccination rates are one reason the country now has so many new cases and so many deaths.

“It just came to our knowledge then. At the beginning of the pandemic, there was a direct beginning and everyone got to the beginning, but the countries were not the same. I would say that Lithuania started with a shot in the leg, but still pointed with a pistol and he shot them. It was significantly more difficult to run to the finish line than in other countries, “said V. Zemlys-Balevičius.

Still, there is no need to blame governments alone, he said. People, as the analyst said, should also think about collective responsibility, and the state in general, about the health status of the population.

“Our society of the elderly is very sick with heart disease and the struggle cuts through the weakest. Kovidas has shown that we as a country have long-term issues that need to be addressed and that have led us to fight harder than other states with unresolved and neglected diseases. “The responsibility is not only of the Government, but also of all the society and of us like State”, said the analyst.