New study: full vaccination has 5 times less risk of infection and 20 times less risk of death

The situation in the fall will be difficult

Aistis Šimaitis, an analyst at the Government Chancellery, gave an introductory presentation on the level of immunization in the country.

“The two most important messages, in high-risk groups and the elderly, are the 20 to 30 percent who do not have immunity. They run the risk of getting sick and dying. And, in fact, the situation in which we find ourselves does not it is equated, in the worst case, with the situation in England or Denmark, where those groups have been vaccinated in more than 80%, sometimes even 100%. We really have up to 10 times more risk this winter, “he said A. Šimaitis.

And the second message, the so-called mobile populations, continues to leave large numbers of children and people of working age unvaccinated.

“We have a completely difficult situation this fall,” said the analyst.

It also presented a possible “worst case scenario.”

“The bad news is that if, with the first strain, we still had some chance of having herd immunity, and some people were infected with ringworm, people would not get infected. It seems that with the delta strain, we have one of the most common viruses. advanced that we have never seen in humans. And the probability that people without immunity can avoid infection at the end of the pandemic is really low, “said analyst A. Šimaitis.

Comparison of vaccinated and unvaccinated people

Dr Jonas Bačelis, Data Analyst at the Statistics Division of the State Data Management Information System of Lithuania, presented data from Lithuania on the efficacy of the Pfizer Comirnaty vaccine. This is the vaccine that most people vaccinated in Lithuania, so it was the first to be tested. The investigation is ongoing.

The study examines the efficacy of the vaccine, and possible side effects of the vaccine will be investigated in the future. Efficacy is tested against any variety of cow and specifically against the delta strain. Currently, the most relevant results are related to the delta variety.

The study examined data from vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals. These two groups were reconciled according to seven factors: if a person is born in a certain year, works in a certain profession and is of a certain sex, a twin who was born in the same year is found (metaphorically), works in the same job , is married / single, from the town / from the same municipality.

The study population represents all age groups, genders, and other demographic factors.

The follow-up period was from July 1 to the end of the first week of September. During this period, infections, hospitalizations and deaths from covidmia were observed. The vaccinated was vaccinated with two doses of Pfizer, fourteen days after the second dose. That is, he had official immunity to the vaccine.

People could have been vaccinated at different times. Among other things, the speed at which the vaccine disappears has been studied.

The first day of July and the delta variety was chosen because since that time, most cases of covid in our country have been cases of this variety.

“Since the first day of July, the growth of cases is practically only with the delta,” said J. Bačelis.

A complete vaccination has a five times lower risk of infection.

Data show that infection rates vary between vaccinated and unvaccinated people.

“You can see with the naked eye that the vaccine is 80 percent effective. This means that a complete vaccination has a five times lower risk of infection. It is a very effective vaccine, “said J. Bačelis.

The analyst clarified that the effectiveness of the vaccine is less than 80% for older people and greater than 80% for younger people. (reaches and exceeds 90%).

Those vaccinated the longest before the first day of July were those vaccinated in February, for whom the vaccine was less effective. For people who get vaccinated in July, the vaccine is more effective.

“The data shows that the older a vaccinated person is, the less effective the vaccine is for him,” Bačelis said.

The analyst pointed out that the same is observed with age, the older the weaker.

Vaccination has a ten times lower risk of being hospitalized for COVID

Hospitalization data were also analyzed. And here, the groups of vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals, according to the data, are clearly separated.

“The number of hospitalizations in the vaccinated group is growing very slowly and the number of hospitalizations in the unvaccinated group is growing very fast. The effectiveness of the vaccine is 90%, which means that those who are vaccinated have a ten times lower risk of being hospitalized in the combat department, ”said J. Bačelis.

When it comes to circus deaths, the group’s data also differ.

“The efficacy of the vaccine here is 95%, which means that vaccinated people have a twenty times lower risk of dying from covidium,” said J. Bačelis.

Immunosuppressed people were not excluded from the study. These are people who, if vaccinated, could even theoretically have difficulty building immunity.

“They are reducing those results. (…) This means that the 95% estimated in reality, the efficiency is higher for an ordinary person who walks down the street and who did not undergo a kidney transplant a month ago or has some type of cancerous disease ”, said J Bačelis.

There is a pandemic of three groups of people

An analyst from the Statistics Department said there is now a pandemic of three groups of people.

“The pandemic has its nuances. One of them, the unvaccinated pandemic, is very fierce and shoots upward,” said J. Bačelis.

And VU GMC Head of Immunology and Cell Biology, prof. Aurelija Žvirblienė evaluated the study from an immunological point of view. He said the study would help counter speculation.

“It just came to our knowledge then. Because Lithuania really needed such data on the effectiveness of the vaccine, because we constantly received questions, speculation that the vaccine does not work. Until now, we have had to rely on research carried out in foreign countries,” he said. A. Žvirblienė.

The professor said the size and sample of the study is huge and allows for statistically reliable results.

“When it comes to the number of hospitalizations and deaths, there are no questions here; this is a very accurate comparison. This is a very clear answer to the question of whether vaccines work. That protection is extremely high,” said the professor.

Double the numbers

Ligita Jančorienė, director of the Santara Clinics Center for Infectious Diseases, stated at the press conference that the number of people with coronavirus has doubled in clinics in recent days.

He said that 85 percent of patients treated with coronavirus in August were not vaccinated.

“That number of patients was not large, the situation was very dynamic. And now, speaking of those numbers, we should mention double, “L. Jančiorienė said at the press conference.

The doctor said that this week’s data has really increased.

“Over three or four days, we have seen a doubling of the number of visits. And probably that the morbidity has caught up with the increase,” he assessed the situation.

What will be done with the reinforcement?

The Deputy Minister of Health, Aušra Bilotienė Motiejūnienė, said that, based on the latest research, it remains difficult to say how the revaccination will be carried out in the future.

“It just came to our knowledge then. Any new vaccine not only has safety and efficacy, it also looks at the duration of the vaccine. From the available data and studies, we can see that the amount of antibodies decreased after 6 months. If the elderly, it decreases less. Therefore, a booster dose would be needed, “said the deputy minister of SAM.

VU GMC Head of Immunology and Cell Biology, prof. A. Žvirblienė stated that the study showed that the level of antibodies in the body decreases more rapidly in older people after a full vaccination.

“The situation is complicated by the fact that we do not have specific data from the manufacturers, we are looking forward to it with great enthusiasm. But this study also confirms what has also been done in the Santara clinics. There the decreases in antibody levels were measured. And here, the number of infections was assessed and the age groups were compared. This echoes the same trend as with an older person, longer after a complete vaccination cycle, the protection decreases, ”said the professor.

We haven’t seen that many new cases since May

Delphi Remember that 62.9% of the country’s population is currently immune to the coronavirus.

Last day 1298 new cases of COVID-19 were detected, 16 people died, according to data published by Statistics Lithuania on Wednesday.

The last time such a high number of new cases was registered was on May 11 of this year.

13 of the 16 deaths were unvaccinated or partially vaccinated.

4011 people were vaccinated with the first dose of the vaccine. A total of 9,488 people received the first or second daily dose.

COVID-19 hospitals are currently treating 863 people, 80 of whom are in resuscitation. The number of people in hospitals increased by six compared to the previous day.