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The head of state is now setting a new goal of 90%, although he recently said that it should not be about percentages but about public health. However, when will all restrictions be lifted in Lithuania if the public achieves the vaccination targets set by the government?
Lithuanian Health Sciences University (LSMU) professor Mindaugas Stankūnas commented that it is not possible to say that after vaccination, 70 percent. adults, we beat the virus.
“It just came to our attention then. We see countries that are vaccinated with more percentages [žmonių], you really face challenges. Now we only have that variety that is much more contagious and it is too early to raise the victory flags or say that the problem is solved, “he said.
When asked by Mr. Stankūnas how many it would take to be happy to avoid the virus, he replied that that definition was now difficult to say.
“Now, of course, we are very happy that Denmark, which has reached a certain number, is also taking liberties. It is certainly gratifying, but we cannot talk about that limit. We can calculate what the level of immunity of the population would be.
If we talk about that original, wild variety from Wuhan, it was around 70 percent. all populations susceptible to the virus. Therefore, for both children and adults, etc. However, we now have the Delta strain, which is much more contagious and we can hardly say if that 80% would be enough to completely eradicate the virus, “said the professor.
According to him, the situation should be monitored at this time, encouraging as many people as possible to get vaccinated, as this hinders the spread of the virus and thus protects the health system from overload.
“We know that there are people who get sick even after being vaccinated, they need hospital help. Of course, there is less, but it is really important for us to reduce the group of people who are particularly vulnerable to the virus and whose treatment is a great challenge for the system. of health “.
However, what is mass or universal immunity? Does it exist at all? M. Stankūnas stated that it exists and can be achieved.
“We have to understand that the immunity of the population depends on two factors: the size of the reproduction of the virus, which, if we talk about the original strain, was 2.5, now it is said that it reaches 7”.
<...>. We have a more complex and more contagious strain, and we are also faced with the fact that vaccines against this strain are less effective than talking about the original or alpha strain. <...>. “It is possible to achieve population immunity, but now it is difficult to do so for the reasons I have listed: the sudden and easier spread of the virus and the lesser effectiveness of vaccines so far,” explained the professor.
When asked if vaccines and restrictions will not last forever as the virus changes, M. Stankūnas commented that it is not expected to eradicate it completely.
“Maybe this was the idea last year when those vaccines were being developed and when they showed very strong effectiveness. Now we can’t talk about that in the near future. It is important for us to ensure that the presence of the virus does not cause major problems for the health system itself.
This means that we can treat sick people, we can also provide medical care for people with other problems. Just so we can treat that disease like any other. For example, when we had a winter situation, when 2,500 people in Lithuania were treated in hospitals and a third of the beds in medical institutions were occupied, it was abnormal.
Mr. Stankūnas stressed that it was necessary to understand that the situation was changing and what was in the spring or last year was one, and now the situation is changing.
“The virus is mutating, it is changing, and our very decisions and tools must change. Knowledge is changing, tools are changing, so we must understand that we cannot just share some categorical and very ambitious promises. In fact, we still don’t know. a lot and in what direction the virus will mutate, “he said.
The professor explained that when it comes to this pandemic, the most important thing is to monitor the situation and learn from the knowledge that can be assumed and applied in practice.
Although the goal of vaccinating 70% has been achieved. adults, but the president of the Health Affairs Commission, Antanas Matulas, assured that the psychological goal was achieved more.
“This was said by the president, the scientists of the World Health Organization (WHO) spoke it, but as the professor mentioned, there is a mutation in the virus. We see 70 percent of that. vaccination is not enough for mass immunity. The more so since it is not clear if we will reach it and where that limit is.
Psychologically, of course, it is good and those restrictions are certainly not the greatest for us compared to other countries. The Passport of Opportunity truly gives people the opportunity to travel, relax, and work. We see this in a growing economy and if an even better result is achieved, <...>Perhaps one day we will also achieve the result of Denmark, ”said A. Matulas.
He added that those restrictions are expected to remain even less. He also emphasized that the government’s goal is not to impose additional restrictions and further restrict people’s lives.
“We ourselves understand that our ability to continue solving the problems of the State also depends on the psychological condition of the people. There is no doubt that these limitations will be reduced, without a doubt I would like to. It is true, to achieve the objective formulated by the president 90 percent is hard enough.
In the case of measles, it is clear that we do exceed 95 percent. vaccination, the incidence of measles is controlled. If we drop to 90-92 percent, the incidence of measles increases. In this case, as the professor said, science still doesn’t know all the answers, so when that massive immunity is reached, when revaccination is needed, the case of Israel shows that we must trust science. “
A. Matulas said that comparing the restrictions with the first and second quarantines, now they are definitely not that strict. Speaking of the many scandalous Passports of Opportunity, he said that without his hospital, he would be overwhelmed again, with increased morbidity and mortality, which no one wants.
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