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The pandemic was expected to subside and then almost disappear as soon as the majority of the population, possibly 60 to 70%, were vaccinated or became resistant to the virus through previous infection.
However, new strains of the virus, such as delta, which are more easily transmitted and in some cases have been shown to be resistant to vaccines, have raised the threshold of public immunity to such a high level that it is almost impossible to reach.
The Delta strain is feeding more and more outbreaks in countries like the United States and the United Kingdom, which have already been severely affected and may have acquired partial immunity and more than 50% vaccinated. population. The delta strain also traverses countries that have so far been able to eliminate the virus almost completely, such as Australia and China.
In August, the American Society for Infectious Diseases reported that the delta strain had raised that threshold to more than 80 percent and possibly nearly 90 percent. Public health officials like Anthony Fauci have sparked a debate when they adjusted the rules in recent years, that is, increasing the number of people who need protection against the virus to achieve public immunity. And given the distrust of vaccines and problems with vaccine supply, it can be assumed that most countries will not even come close to the initial targets set.
“Will we achieve public immunity? No, it’s highly unlikely by definition, ”said Greg Poland, director of the Mayo Clinic vaccine research team in Rochester, Minnesota. According to him, even with 95 percent. vaccination level, will not be achieved.
“There is a constant race between the emergence of even more contagious strains capable of becoming resistant to vaccines over time and the vaccination scale,” he said.
Natural immunity?
Natural immunity won’t solve the problem either. It is not clear how long the immunity acquired after COVID-19 will develop and if it will be effective in fighting new strains. Future strains, including those most likely to avoid an immune response, raise questions about how and when it will all end.
“If it were that simple, get infected once and get lifelong immunity, that would be great, but I don’t think so,” said SV Mahadevan, director of the South Asia unit of the Asia Health Research and Education Center at the Stanford University. . “It is a cause for concern.”
There are already indications that some people and some areas, such as Brazil and other South American countries, are being affected by newer varieties for the second time.
Without public immunity, the virus could exist in some form for decades, which could force the world’s most powerful nations to adjust their different strategies to open borders and economies.
Countries like China, which have a strict policy called COVID Zero to eradicate any infection, may eventually have to consider a more lenient strategy.
Other countries, such as the United States and the United Kingdom, which open up despite virus outbreaks, are at risk of experiencing wave after wave of viruses.
To date, vaccines have not become a lifesaver as quickly as some hoped. Israel, one of the most vaccinated countries in the world, has already begun vaccinating people with a maintenance dose, with evidence showing that current levels of vaccination do not provide the expected protection. Last week, the United States announced that Americans with weaker immune systems would be vaccinated with a third dose of the vaccine.
Stronger vaccines, including mRNA vaccines developed by Pfizer Inc., BioNTech SE, and Moderna Inc., will facilitate efforts to achieve high levels of immunity because they are highly effective.
However, even with these vaccines, it is possible to become infected again. Other vaccines, such as AstraZeneca Plc., Johnson & Johnson, and those developed by Chinese manufacturers, can provide even less protection.
Public immunity is a real phenomenon that protects most of the world from various viral threats, from measles to polio. According to scientists, it helped eradicate smallpox. The goal of achieving public immunity has likely helped the world implement measures such as the use of face masks and the limitation of physical contact. But it also created a misleading narrative.
“In my opinion, the emphasis on ‘public immunity’ is quite damaging,” said William Hanage, an epidemiologist at Harvard’s TH Chan School of Public Health and an expert on the dynamics of communicable diseases. “People are being given an unrealistic view of the end of the pandemic and the evolution of both the virus and reinfection is not being taken into account.”
Some states have learned a painful lesson about the lack of public immunity. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson initially planned to use it as the most important COVID-19 strategy, hoping his voters would “resist” natural infections until the extent of the coronavirus’ strength became apparent. Other countries are shaking hands on herd immunity, the most prominent example being Indonesia. The fourth most densely populated country in the world has decided that it is impossible to stop the virus even if the entire population of the country is vaccinated. He has stepped up his efforts to persuade people to wear face masks and maintain a physical distance, while trying to raise the still low level of vaccination.
Meanwhile, Singapore is cautiously easing restrictions and preparing to open up, promising to do so as soon as a sufficiently high level of vaccination is achieved.
The end
While there is evidence to suggest that it will be difficult or impossible to achieve public immunity, many public health officials disagree. Governments around the world have committed to expanding vaccination programs.
And yet, the individualistic approach and the lack of vaccines in many countries contribute to the global problem. Everyone is at risk of contracting the virus as long as at least one country survives massive outbreaks.
The world is unlikely to clamp down on the pandemic before 2022, experts say. And that date could be postponed if the virus survives another metamorphosis and becomes even more contagious or resistant to vaccines.
There is hope that new vaccines and other methods can stop the spread of the virus more effectively, but none of them have begun to be tested in humans. It will be several years before they become a real possibility.
But there is a high probability that the virus will become established around the world, leading to outbreaks that are likely to be milder due to vaccination, the use of face masks and the interventions of other public health authorities.
“The Delta variety is not a trinket that we cannot eradicate,” Haden said. – Even the alpha variant is difficult to remove. But with sufficient immunity, ideally achieved through vaccines, we can expect it to cause a much milder illness in the long term. “
Back to the 1918s
The 1918 Spanish flu shows what the COVID scenario could be, says Mayo Clinic Poland. The varieties will likely continue to be around and maintenance doses or regular vaccinations specifically designed for the newer strains will be required.
“And then if we succeed, and we probably will, this virus will turn into something like the flu that we will constantly face,” Poland said. “It will become more seasonal, like all the other coronaviruses that are already circulating, and we will just have to get vaccinated regularly.”
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