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On Thursday, Health Minister Arūnas Dulkys said 70 percent. the population could be vaccinated in September and restrictions could be revised as the situation improves. The minister hinted that after mid-September, it would be possible to reach and exceed 70 percent. level of public vaccination.
You need to reach 80-83 percent. vaccination threshold
“For Lithuania No. 1 – not the third vaccine, but no. 1 – to reach the vaccination level. Now not about 70 percent. It is necessary to speak, because the spread of the delta virus strain will increase in September, by what is necessary to reach 80-83 percent. <..> Therefore, it is necessary to strive to increase the volume of vaccination as soon as possible, ”Vice President Andriukaitis spoke about COVID-19 in the discussion that took place on Saturday.
According to Vice President Andriukaitis, the situation today is completely different from before. Consideration should be given to continuing vaccination and not compromising mandatory vaccination, since mandatory vaccination cannot be accompanied by coercive restrictions. He compared the vaccination to a technical inspection of the car.
“Nobody is chasing you, but you will see because everything goes wrong if you stop or someone else. Tying does not mean coercion, and by no means is a dirty word “coercion,” he said.
“There are two problems with vaccination: completing as much as possible and the question of the third injection (third injection) after the question mark. It has no scientific basis, some countries are applying it, but it will be in the future,” he added. .
Professor S. Čaplinskas also agreed that the delta variety is spreading rapidly, so it is necessary to talk about a large part of the vaccinated society.
“We have a vaccine, enough vaccines, and we need 70 percent to prevent the Wuhan virus from spreading.” immobile populations, including children.
With delta, there are other rules of the game, already 90 percent. or maybe more. But this means that at that time, because after that the immunity weakens, for some people the immunity will already be weakened, and for others it will not develop, ”said S. Čaplinskas.
The professor also pointed out that the antibody data in vaccinated people varies tenfold.
“It means that we will not achieve that herd immunity for another year, if the virus is modified accordingly and as many people as possible acquire immunity. Do you need to fight for it or not? It is necessary, but it is a long-term goal, not that today we vaccinate 70%, well, the more vaccinated, the lower the chances that the virus will spread, “he said.
COVID-19 bed occupancy is identified as a more important indicator of pandemic management than the number of new cases today. According to Minister A. Dulkys, when approaching 300 or even 250 employment beds, the health system already needs to be protected from overheating.
“Now the narrative I hear is that 300 beds and the children will not go to school – the hair is shaking. I just attended the Americans vebinare when they go back to school and there they make it clear when talking about beds, if we have beds prepared for the children because there may be sick children. Children do not have to suffer the decisions of adults, this means the need for ventilation and ventilation systems. I think we will get to how electricity has its levels, it will be exactly the same here. The air changes 6 times an hour, but it doesn’t matter how it is, through the window or through the ventilation systems? ”Said S. Čaplinskas.
“We live in a new reality, we understand what that life is like in a new reality. Today it was said again, 500 or how many got sick there, some died, I don’t even know exactly, well what? Where is the epidemiological analysis of that process and how did they become infected, where did they become infected, what behavior led to the infection? People who have died: who are the people who have died, what are their activities, etc.? If a person drives a combine, can he drive a crane? Probably not much. And we achieved everything in such a way that everything was piled up, epidemiological control and surveillance, and that surveillance no longer remained, and there was no normal professional response to the pandemic ”, said the professor.
Vytautas Kasiulevičius, vice dean of the Vilnius University Faculty of Medicine, said in the discussion that it is necessary to talk about the need for places in hospitals.
“Now the number is 600 – with the top. They set that limit of 300, they took about half that way. <...> But in fact, we have to talk about the increased need for places, because during the peak of winter we should still focus, probably no less on those diseases. [bus], although more populations will be vaccinated. Clearly, that will offset the number of hospitalizations.
We should probably be able to occupy up to 2,000 to be hospitalized 2,000 at a time. COVID-19 patients. That is the number you need to find. How did you find yourself last time? This was the case when concentrating efforts not only on the five so-called in combat hospitals, which are running out of resources, are filling up, that is, attracting regions ”, he said.
What is the probability of dying from COVID-19 infection according to age?
Professor V. Kasiulevičius stated that quarantine was necessary at the beginning before there were vaccines. In fact, it has helped prevent serious illness for some people. The professor provided figures on the probability of dying from coronavirus infection at different ages.
“COVID-19 has very large scissors for age, if you are older, your chances of dying and being diagnosed are many times greater than if you are younger.
Naturally, that tension in society is increasing. Young people are basically safe, despite the cases we see in the hospital, etc. But the differences are very great, enormous. If we compare this, for example, the chances of dying for an 80-year-old person are 1%. This means that one in 100 infected 80-year-olds will die.
If we travel down, let’s say 40 years, 40 years younger, that’s only 0.01 percent. That is a big difference. If we look at how many people die from the flu, that’s about the same as for a 40-year-old. covid“Said V. Kasiulevičius.
“If we get vaccinated, an 80-year-old vaccinated has essentially the same chance of dying as an unvaccinated 50-year-old. Consequently, vaccines have a great effect, even if their benefits are gradually diminishing, ”said V. Kasiulevičius.
According to the professor, it is necessary to find ways to vaccinate as many people as possible. Of course, more communication is needed, vaccines need to be brought to primary care centers and vaccinated, especially in the regions.
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