Chinese Expert Discusses Ways Beijing Can Get Revenge Of Lithuania For Taiwan

– Let’s start with the current issues: what is the importance of opening the Taiwanese representative office in Lithuania?

– First, it should be noted that in recent decades, Taiwan’s international diplomacy o in quasi-diplomacy, depending on the evaluation, we see a very obvious fact de jure Y de facto decline in diplomatic relations and representations.

What will happen in Lithuania is something qualitatively new that clearly contradicts such a trend.

Another important aspect is the role of Lithuania. Although we are a small country, we are members of NATO, the European Union (EU), the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). In other words, it is an integral part of the western international community, where we have not seen many of those trends in recent decades.

Although our diplomats, both knowingly and perceptively, say that we are doing nothing that a large number of other EU countries would not do, we are talking about a chronologically opposite trend.

Important and symbolic details. The name of the mission is likely to mention Taiwan rather than the actual capital, Taipei. An agreement has been reached with China that for Taiwan to be effectively represented in the international arena, it must do so on behalf of Taipei. This unwritten rule is generally followed.

If, after all, the mission is named after Taiwan, Beijing will interpret this as a clear trend confirming the ambitions of the current Taiwanese government to consolidate its independence from the mainland not only in fact, but also in international law and symbolically. And these things are very important in China, in a high-context culture.

– You mentioned that the number of representations from Taiwan has been decreasing in recent years. Should this be related to the rising power of China?

– Yes, definitely. There was talk of two Chinese during the Cold War. I will remind you that the official name of Taiwan is still the Republic of China.

For a long time, the government of the ROC, which resides in Taipei, claimed to be the government of all of China. XX a. In the second half, there was a very fierce competition between the two China for recognition in the international arena for a long time. With the increasing economic power of the People’s Republic of China, as well as its political and diplomatic, the number of states that maintained official diplomatic relations with the ROC has rapidly decreased.

Eventually, a trend called “checkbook diplomacy” emerged. Beijing and Taipei have benefited from certain small countries in Oceania, the Caribbean and Central America to attract official recognition to the other side. As the power of mainland China grew very rapidly, it became increasingly difficult for Taiwan to participate in that race.

Finally, just over a dozen small, distant, and generally insignificant states have formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan. The most important of them is the Vatican.

– We have heard more than once in the Taiwanese media in recent weeks. The name of Lithuania. Vilnius announced that he would make sacrifices twenty one thousand coronavirus vaccines, although this is not a significant number for Taiwan. Why Was the reaction of the Taiwanese that strong, even disproportionate?

– It is always important that Taiwan receive support, especially from those states that are an integral part of the Western community of values, economy and security. This was also an important symbolic aspect.

It must be remembered that the issue of vaccines has not arisen anywhere. In recent years, the real relations between Lithuania and Taiwan have become quite active, during the first wave of the coronavirus, the Taiwanese were the first to offer help. In a sense, Lithuania was grateful.

But a chain of others happened between these two events. Former Lithuanian Foreign Minister Linkevičius advocated that Taiwan be given the opportunity to participate in the World Health Assembly, although under pressure from Beijing, this did not happen in the end.

Taiwan’s success story in fighting the coronavirus is very important to everyone: It was Taiwanese scientists and the government that were the first to start talking openly that something bad was happening in mainland China.

Taiwan remains one of the most effective pandemic countries in the world to date, despite pressure from the People’s Republic of China to find a way to the island much more difficult due to vaccines or medical equipment. Therefore, even a small amount of support for Taiwan was important.

– Following the announcement of the opening of the Taiwanese representative office in Lithuania, Chinese official media mentioned that if “Lithuania continues to go badly”, even the termination of bilateral relations may be threatened. Is this scenario realistic?

– If Lithuania does not dare to take even more drastic steps, I do not think that under current conditions we can speak of such a scenario. Lithuania is not just a small country in the world, it is a member of the EU and NATO. China must take that context into account.

From a Chinese perspective, it would make much more sense not to create additional headlines that would accentuate Taiwan’s move toward de facto statehood. This would be too fierce a reaction to Lithuania’s actions in the international arena.

Relations between Taiwan and Lithuania are already being discussed globally. If Beijing took such a radical step as breaking diplomatic relations, there would be a lot of talk. Beijing does not want to leave any opportunity untapped. And to take advantage of those opportunities, diplomatic relations are essential.

Such statements should not be taken seriously, they are highly speculative, and are highly dependent on what kind of Chinese media, what kind of Chinese official or representative of the academic community is saying. Because some measures are very nationalistic, others less.

– What should Lithuanian foreign policy makers take into account when developing a long-term policy for China? What response should we prepare for?

– China’s power is based on the economy. It is the second largest economy in the world in terms of nominal GDP. There is little doubt that it could become the world’s largest economy in the next few years. In this context, taking into account the previous precedents of relations between Beijing and Vilnius, we should first expect measures of economic impact.

When the issue of Tibet escalated in the Lithuanian diplomatic sky, when His Holiness the Dalai Lama XIV visited Lithuania, and especially when he met with heads of state such as President Grybauskaitė, China took economic measures: by freezing trade negotiations, our market for economic operators or access to it in general. We could expect that first.

However, the economic relations between Lithuania and China are weaker than in many other European countries. We have enough room for maneuver, China cannot punish us as it could punish countries that are bigger and more important to us.

Other instruments remain for China. One of them is the blackening campaign, which tries to expand the speeches that are being developed for the domestic audience to the international arena in order to emphasize that Lithuania is supposedly independent, that there are many problems in it, it should not be paid attention to. . absolutely.

As a last resort, it should be noted that China has very serious cyber capabilities, the internal and external policies of many countries can operate remotely, using not only cyber capabilities but also their influence on supply chains in international organizations.

There are levers, but given the specifics of Lithuania-China relations, the fact that Lithuania is a member of the EU and NATO, the chances of a very destructive Chinese response are quite limited.

– Do Lithuania’s actions, which are favorable to Taiwan, give and can boost other countries, first of all the EU?

– I think so. Both the coalition treaty and the government program of the current government spoke of a foreign policy based on values. The Asian direction of Lithuania’s foreign policy has also changed, where China has played the most important role, and Japan is now openly said to be Asia’s most important partner.

When the government launched a review of relations with China in late 2020-2021, it looked like it might have been too bold. For many scientists and politicians in the rest of the European Union, this seemed too provocative and far-sighted.

However, in the spring of 2021, the state of relations between the European Union and China reached a period almost of crisis. The last time relations were this bad was probably in 1989 when the Tiananmen Square massacre took place.

In this context, the change in Lithuania’s foreign policy was, in a sense, a harbinger. Our position no longer seems as strange as it might have seemed 8 or 9 months ago.

I think many governments, especially those closest to us in terms of value and geography, first of all the other Baltic countries, are watching very closely where the review of relations with China is taking place and what the response might be. China’s potential.

It is still difficult to talk about the fact that Lithuania will obviously lead European diplomacy towards China in one direction or another, but it is a very important part of this whole great puzzle.

– When it comes to relations with Taiwan, there are those who are more pragmatic about the situation and say that perhaps there is no need to mock the superpower. Why is it useful for Lithuania to maintain close relations with Taiwan?

– The pragmatic attitude towards China is also understandable, this is an important argument. We need to realize that we are operating in an international system in which two superpowers will soon emerge. The United States is already like this, China is becoming very slow. The emerging role and potential of China should be duly taken into account.

In the medium and long term, China’s power will be even greater. However, this does not mean that there is nothing to be gained from relations with Taiwan in the short, medium and even long term.

Lithuania has maintained relations with Beijing for three decades, the last decade has been more intense. Relations are bilateral and are maintained through multilateral formats.

And there have been no success stories of economic breakthroughs in the last decade.

It is critical that such economic success stories emerge in relations with Taiwan. And the massive campaigns for Lithuanian chocolate or beer suggest that the Taiwanese consumer can use Lithuanian exporters strategically, politically, and heavily, many of whom have worked for years to enter the mainland Chinese market, but have failed. greater success in the end.

Even if they have succeeded, it does not mean that they will still be allowed to operate there a month from now, as China is gradually closing itself off from the rest of the world in many ways.

Since Taiwan is a relatively large market, about 24 million. people, and the fact that Taiwan is a high-tech country, according to some criteria, that these technologies are world leaders – we are talking about semiconductors first – there is a lot of room for cooperation. Especially if we talk about the postmodern 21st century. economy. But you also have to put in the effort – success is not automatically guaranteed.