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Belarusian reviewer Artiomas Šraibmanas 15 minutes He said the protests would stop for a while because “there are no obvious reasons to protest”: in recent weeks, solidarity has been shown on the streets with candidates arrested in the presidential elections.
“It just came to our attention then. If Victor Babarika is not registered, I suppose that could spark another wave of protests. If on election day, Lukashenko traditionally receives 80 percent. Votes and no one will believe it, he could become someone else. reason for protests, ”he said.
AFP / Scanpix photo / Protest in Minsk
On Monday, Lidia Yermoshina, president of the Central Electoral Commission (CCA), announced that seven contenders were still participating in the campaign, including former popular banker Viktor Babarik and Svetlana, the wife of the famous blogger Sergei Tikhanyovsky, who participated in the competition when her husband was arrested. V. Babarika was also arrested last week..
According to the observer, the objective of any repression by authoritarian regimes is to dissuade people from further protests, firstly by punishing the most active.
“There will be reasons to protest, but the government has shown that it will respond with repression. I cannot predict if people will be intimidated, if the deal will be successful, how brutal it will be.” 15 minutes A. Shraibman said.
According to the Viasno Human Rights Center, around 80 people, including eight journalists, were taken to Minsk police stations on Friday. In Paris, after the “preventive talks” and the elaboration of protocols, some of them were released. Several people were detained in other cities. Several people have been detained in other cities in the country, reports Belsat.
In Minsk, participants formed a live chain, applauded support for Lukashenko’s rivals, and passing drivers showed solidarity by pointing.
Reviewers note that representatives from the entertainment world, such as singers Lera Jaskevič and Palina, comedian Andrejus Skorochodas and director Darja Žuk, have begun to talk about politics. A former presenter of the state channel on Facebook appealed to the consciences of journalists by comparing them to law enforcement officers who arrested people for no reason.
According to A. Šraibmanas, the threat to A. Lukashenko’s regime is greater than ever.
“But I understand that the system has many reservations in terms of power and repression. <...> This is, in fact, the most difficult election campaign Lukashenko has ever had.
The threats are becoming more real than they were in previous elections. The challenges for the government are great and very varied: the economic crisis, relations with Russia, declining public confidence, the protest movement and alternative candidates are quite popular.
Will the regime survive? Hard to say If I had to gamble, I’d say I would survive. But what is the cost of that? What will happen after the elections? How long will Lukashenko survive after them? These are still unanswered questions for me, “said A. Šraibmanas.
Reuters / Scanpix photo / Protest against Aliaksandr Lukashenko
External pressure should not be overestimated
Foreign Minister Linas Linkevičius condemned the arrests. “If Belarus really wants to improve relations with the European Union, it cannot return to the situation with political prisoners,” the minister wrote on Twitter.
On Friday, solidarity actions were carried out with the Belarusian opposition in Vilnius and several other cities in the world, and the United States asked Minsk to release the arrested opposition figures.
However, A. Shraibman assured: so far there is no evidence that A. Lukashenko cares what the West thinks.
“Until now, the brutality of the agreement is unprecedented. This is the first time in Belarusian history that the crackdown began before the presidential elections.
It has sparked many statements from Washington member states, the EU, as well as Lithuania, but the (Belarusian) government is acting as if it doesn’t care. International pressure may have limited impact, “said the commentator.
According to A. Shraibman, A. Lukashenko would like to balance between Russia and the West, to preserve relations with the EU. “It just came to our attention then. International reputation is a secondary issue,” said the reviewer.
According to surveys of independent portal users, 2-3 percent would vote for A. Lukashenko in the elections. voters.
But observers say the number of his supporters is higher. According to a survey by the Academy of Sciences in April, the president was trusted 24 percent. voters. This means that the figure could reach almost 30% across the country.
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