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On Monday, several dozen residents of the town of Dieveniškės in the Šalčininkai district protested at the Ministry of the Interior (MIA). They were outraged by plans to house 500 illegal immigrants in the building of the village’s former School of Technology and Business. Last week, the “National Union” of Vytautas Radžvilas met near the Seimas. Approximately fifty people gathered in parliament in a demonstration called “Defend Lithuania” demanded that the authorities stop all illegal immigrants by all means and prevent illegal immigrants from crossing the border. Even earlier, in early July, the Family Movement organization organized a demonstration on the Lithuanian border. In an action in the municipality of Druskininkai called “Protect the Lithuanian border”, one hundred and a half people intended to “help the border guards” to stop the arrival of immigrants to Lithuania.
Vilnius University political scientist dr. Kęstutis Girnius is convinced that the fears of the country’s population towards the newcomers were also provoked by the rhetoric chosen by the representatives of the authorities, when this crisis was described as a hybrid war. In his view, people’s reactions wouldn’t be so stormy if the migrants weren’t identified as a threat, but rather as a kind of temporary inconvenience that could be quickly resolved.
“It just came to our knowledge then. I don’t know why they should present themselves as future terrorists,” the government’s rhetoric surprised the VU political scientist.
However, the associate professor of Mykolas Romeris University (MRU), Dr. Virginijus Valentinavičius, who believes that the protests against refugees are more related to the willingness of some marginal groups sympathetic to Alexander Lukashenko’s regime to express their discontent with government policies.
“There are people for whom Lukashenko is less terrible than Landsbergis,” laughed the MRU political scientist.
He is convinced that government officials, by clearly identifying the ongoing processes as a hybrid war, are simply trying to reveal to the people of the country the true causes of the illegal immigrant crisis.
“The government is trying to explain where that migration crisis came from. For those who support the government’s policy on Belarus, support for the opposition, such an explanation is probably sufficient. For those who think that Lukashenko is a great leader, and the government Lithuanian is mad at him in a completely unnecessary way, such an explanation is unacceptable. There are people in Lithuania who think this and that, “reasoned V. Valentinavičius.
K. Girnius: these fugitives are not a striking force
However, K. Girnius takes the position that the behavior of the authorities in response to this crisis, presenting it as an attack on Lithuania, provoked much more stormy reactions from society.
“As soon as an emergency was imposed, the State Defense Council was convened, there were laws and resolutions that there was a hybrid war here. I think it gives such a nuance that Lithuania is almost under attack. These runners, in my opinion, are not a strike force. These are people who want to enter the West and have had no luck, “said a VU political scientist, while emphasizing that the goal of migrants is not to harm Lithuania.
“These people are not completely innocent, because they are still breaking the border, but their objective is not to damage Lithuania, but to enter Western Europe,” he is convinced.
However, V. Valentinavičius does not agree with such an assessment of the rulers’ speeches. According to him, it should be noted that the Government, when speaking of hybrid warfare, allegedly emphasizes the aggressive foreign policy pursued by the Belarusian regime, and not the alleged threats posed by migrants.
“When the government speaks of hybrid warfare, it is not referring to refugees, but to Lukashenko. I have not heard anyone say from the Government that the refugees themselves are a danger in themselves. There is the Lukashenko regime and its policies, a very aggressive that is dangerous. Those people who cross the Lithuanian border with the help of Lukashenko, without much knowledge of where and how they found themselves, are innocent. “I don’t think the government’s rhetoric makes the refugees more terrible,” said one MRU political scientist.
According to him, groups as controversial as the supporters of the “Family March” contribute much more to the incitement of fears. According to the political scientist, the activities of these organizations are directed mainly against the strict Lithuanian policy followed by the Government headed by Ingrida Šimonytė towards A. Lukashenko.
“Migrants become more terrible with those who run to the wall and demand the construction of barriers, machine guns and nothing. These are completely extreme marginal forces that, according to the characters, coincide with the Vingis Park March. They make noise on all occasions, it is directed against the current ruling majority “, – assured V. Valentinavičius.
VU political scientist: the basis for the care of migrants would emerge when the paratroopers hid in the forests of Dzūkija
However, K. Girnius is convinced that the government’s concern about hybrid warfare is currently unfounded. According to the political scientist, the number of immigrants entering Lithuania is now relatively small. Even if it doubled even more, the majority of migrants, in his opinion, would still not be entitled to asylum. Therefore, in the opinion of a VU political scientist, it would be possible to take charge of a possible hybrid war only if trained soldiers seeking to harm the state crossed the Lithuanian border.
“If a large number of paratroopers crossed the Lithuanian border, they would hide in the forests of Dzūkija, there would be security guards trying to create the fifth column, then there would be reason to be careful. But it is not. These people will not do that. I think. that we should speak much calmer, not increase the hysteria. I think that speech may eventually damage Lithuania’s image elsewhere. This shows the government’s lack of preparation. These people are not dangerous. I don’t know why they should present themselves as future terrorists “, assured K. Girnius.
Although Valentinavičius agrees that there is no reason to speak of people trained by Belarusian services among immigrants at this time, he also claims that the Cabinet of Ministers did not speak about it. According to him, fears are fueled mainly by radicals demanding the entry of migrants in general.
“It is too early to talk about green people and spoilers, but again, I have not heard anyone from the government say that. Those who fly to the border and picket are afraid and demand that refugees not be allowed at all, which Lithuania cannot legally do. These forces are radical. It is the protesters, the extremist nationalist forces, the Pro Patria, the “unification” of Rajvila who are beginning to shout that the sacred land of Lithuania is in danger here and that they are demanding radical, non-European measures, “said the Political Scientist of the MRU, noting that opinions are also reflected in trends in recent election results.
“Opinions and fears coincide according to the results of the last elections. Such an explanation for the voters of the peasant and Polish election campaign (due to the hybrid war against Lithuania – ELTA) is unacceptable, they think that human rights are not violated in Belarus and Lithuania pays attention to such processes completely unnecessarily. Then declarations are made that we don’t need refugee camps and things like that. As Petras Gražulis from the Seimas rostrum said, the Landsbergis caused the migration crisis. There are those who think that way in Lithuania, ”said V. Valentinavičius.
V. Valentinavičius: Refugees are A. Lukashenko’s perfect tool for radical mobilization
According to the MRU political scientist, one of A. Lukashenko’s goals in sending illegal immigrants to Lithuania was to incite the fears of the Lithuanian population and thus encourage more active local radical groups.
“Lukashenko, by manipulating the refugees, has the perfect tool to mobilize radical and marginal political forces in Lithuania. That is what is happening. Refugees arrived and they immediately picked up radicals on the wall. Yes, Lukashenko has a great influence on these processes. , gives another excuse for an anti-globalist, super-nationalist, super-conservative minority to raise barricades and fight against something ”, V. Valentinavičius is convinced.
However, K. Girnius believes that the Lukashenko regime would benefit much less from this situation if migrants were not presented in Lithuania as a hybrid war tool. He is convinced that the authorities must now seek to quell the passions and fears that have arisen in society.
“I think it is important to treat migrants fairly. There is a possibility that things will get worse, but when these people are presented as a danger rather than a temporary inconvenience, it inevitably leads to negative reactions. The fact that people from Dieveniškės is unsatisfied is also understandable, because suddenly 200-400 people belonging to a completely different culture who do not know their language are relocated to their town or city. But I think it is necessary to explain and try to calm the population “, said the political scientist of the VU.
At the same time, he emphasized that the current reaction of the rulers towards migrants also provides certain material and opportunities to manipulate information to the propaganda spokesmen of Lukashenko or Vladimir Putin.
“It is already being criticized that the rights of refugees are being violated and that they are not being accepted as required by international law. So Moscow can say that Lithuanians portray the politics of values, but when something unpleasant happens, all its principles disappear” says K. Girnius.
ELTA recalls that on Monday, border guards detained 41 migrants from Belarus who crossed the border illegally, according to preliminary data from SBGS. This year, a total of 2,158 illegal immigrants were detained on the border with Belarus.
Of the 41 foreigners detained on Monday, 34 presented themselves as Iraqi citizens or had Iraqi documents.
This year 2,158 illegal immigrants tried to enter Lithuania from Belarus until midnight Monday through Tuesday. This figure is more than 26 times higher than during all of 2020, notes the SBGS report. In July alone, border guards detained 1,497 migrants. There were 473 in June, 77 in May, 70 in April, and 8 in March.
Among those detained on the border with Belarus this year there are mostly Iraqi citizens or foreigners who have come forward: 1,153,182 Congolese, 121 Cameroonians, 78 Guineans, 74 Iranians, 69 Syrians and Afghans, 68 Russians and other nationals were also detained. .
Since the beginning of the year, according to preliminary data, most of the migrants were detained in Druskininkai municipality – 566. 473 foreigners illegally arrived from Belarus were detained in Šalčininkai district, Ignalina – 366, Varėna – 355, Švenčionys – 174, Lazdijai – 142. with Belarus. In addition to various organizational measures, officials from other SBGS units were assigned to this section and additional technical resources were assigned. In addition, the border guards were assisted by forces from other Lithuanian institutions, including the army, as well as officials from the European Border and Coast Guard Agency Frontex and Estonia.
