Western Europe is drowning in rains and Lithuania is devastated by tropical heat: climatologist warns: this is only the beginning

After a few days of extreme rains in Western Europe, at least 183 people died and dozens were missing. Germany was hit the hardest, with police reporting 110 deaths in Rhineland-Palatinate alone. At that time, the death toll in Belgium reached 27 and many people are still missing. Belgian and German rescuers also scoured the ruins in search of victims, often working in dangerous conditions.

Heavy rains have also fallen in Switzerland, Luxembourg and the Netherlands. According to local media, the true scope of the catastrophe is only now becoming clear by assessing the damaged buildings, some of which will have to be demolished. Efforts are also underway to restore gas, electricity and telephone services. In some areas, soldiers used armored vehicles to clear obstructing streets.

Divers have been sent to search for houses and cars underwater in North Rhine-Westphalia. Western European scientists have also been surprised that the rains have fallen for at least a few months in a matter of days and have not been able to predict in time.

No need to look far for examples

Tropical heat prevailed in Lithuania and parts of western Europe were washed away by rains and floods. Climatologist of the Lithuanian Hydrometeorological Service (LHMT) dr. Donatas Valiukas said it can definitely be related to ongoing climate change.

“It is true that such extreme phenomena are becoming more frequent and intensified. Very often it is emphasized that such phenomena will only intensify in the context of climate change. Both Europe was dominated by those torrential heats and extreme heat prevailed in northwestern America, where temperatures rose to 50 degrees. “There are many extreme events of this type around the world this summer,” he said.

The climatologist said that watersheds are relatively conducive to these types of floods and sometimes we look for a lot of global examples, but they can be very close.

“We had a catastrophic rain in Jurbarkas this weekend, when more than 80 mm of rain fell in a few hours. Sometimes these phenomena take place right next door, although the scale of the damage, especially to people and infrastructure , it’s huge in Germany and Belgium. “

When asked what conditions caused such large floods in Western Europe, D. Valiukas explained that this was due to several reasons.

“In general, the rains in these countries were due to the synoptic situation. However, everything has reached that level because there are rivers there and they are by their nature favorable to river spills. They are also quite densely populated. These are residential areas where it is favorable for rivers to spill and simply flood when more water accumulates. So here are the two important factors. “

According to the climatologist, where there is no such river network and therefore the infrastructure developed, the effect could have been quite different.

“It just came to our knowledge then. When there is a lot of water, the inhabited areas immediately flood.”

When asked why the local authorities had not warned people about a possible catastrophe earlier in this case, D. Valiukas considered that a large amount of rain had fallen and was significantly higher than expected.

“Now I can’t say exactly how the services reacted before the flood, but in general you can expect such a heavy rain, but predicting the size is not easy, because a few tens of millimeters can go a long way. As I mentioned, in the case of Jurbarkas, the one-month rate fell within a few hours. Then, these types of situations arise and, unfortunately, they are more and more frequent “.

Extreme events will only increase

The climatologist says that such extreme events will only increase and the inertial climate will only heat up. However, if one person strives to reduce pollution and consume responsibly, they can slow down climate change.

“It’s just a matter of reducing it so that it doesn’t get bigger and stronger. But there will certainly be inertia from which that climate will change. We can do everything we can to reduce that climate change in a few decades, but basically that climate will still change. it is heating by inertia. However, every effort should be made to keep that heating to a minimum. “

Today, he said, the temperature has risen by one degree and every effort is being made to keep the global temperature below two degrees. He also responded positively that in Lithuania we will have tropical heat more and more often in the summer.

“It is still difficult to say what will happen this summer, but we have really managed to have some extreme events.”