Scientist calculates what the fourth wave will look like: fall quarantine may be inevitably necessary

Although modest, as the numbers rise, it is already the fourth wave of the coronavirus. V. Zemlys-Balevičius stated that the current data shows growth, but it is still too difficult to say if it is a new wave.

“We have to wait a week, the next. Because in summer, at least last year, there were not many takeoffs and landings of this type. This is now, compared to last summer, the number of cases in our country has not dropped to almost zero. They still went down to 19-20 per day. But for the 7-day average to be a one-digit number, it wasn’t. It may be like before the third wave: a dip, we hit the bottom and it begins. takeoff will continue a bit and that wave, the question of how long it will take, “he explained.

The data scientist said there was no need to “rush with the names.”

“It just came to our knowledge then. But the signs are disturbing. Because that growth, the transition from negative to positive, if we look at all the big cities: in Vilnius there is 100 percent growth, in Kaunas and Klaipeda it is also smaller. , but it has also changed.

This shows that we are not facing a random process in which something jumped. No, you see it in big cities, and that’s where all the action is. Now it is a question of where they will go, “said data scientist V. Zemlys-Balevičius on Monday morning on the” Delfi rytas “show.

“Either they fall, or we have a delta spread here that is fast enough like we’ve seen in other states,” he said.

V. Zemlys – Balevičius stated that it is still difficult to say whether the growth of the cases is determined by the lighting of a chimney in summer or the already delta variety. And it depends on how you behave.

The data researcher said that in the past 14 days, the largest increase in cases was in the youngest age groups, 20 to 40 years.

“The most mobile (the majority of society, aut. P.) suffer the most, and the negative effects are more visible in the older age groups. And when looking at the deaths in the last 14 days, the 80-year-old group stands out, with 50 percent of them newly vaccinated. So far, we can’t say anything special about the data, “said the data scientist.

“Fall may not be fun”

Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė also mentions the possibility that autumn is waiting. She urges everyone to get vaccinated as soon as possible before the number of cases increases, which, according to him, is likely to increase.

Data scientist V. Zemlys – Balevičius said on the “Delfi rytas” show that autumn may not be fun.

“If the delta variety starts to spread faster and we don’t increase the vaccination rate, it won’t be fun in the fall,” explained V. Zemlys-Balevičius.

He predicted that hospitalization rates in Lithuania should be higher than in the UK, as fewer at-risk people were vaccinated in Lithuania.

“Given that half the population has been vaccinated, I suppose the fourth wave should be half as small as it was in the fall. But we’ll see. From a data point of view, autumn is not fun, ”said data scientist V. Zemlys – Balevičius on the“ Delfi rytas ”program.

He said the key question at this point was whether the National Public Health Center (NVSC) could handle the small number of cases.

“It just came to our attention then, while the weather was still warm. Now the essence and the prognosis (depends, aut. P.) of how much the work of the NVSC will help us to keep the cases at a low level, “he said.

V. Zemlys-Balevičius recalled last year, when NVSC took up this challenge in September.

“Looking at last year’s experience, there will be similar figures at the end of the month as now,” he explained.

“Now we have an optimistic and pessimistic scenario. And in a month we will probably have something between them,” said the interviewer of the program.

Will try to help hospitals work

Before July 1, when the 8-month quarantine ended, officials said the quarantine could be restored if disease rates worsen again.

Data scientist V. Zemlys-Balevičius recalled that no new restrictions are announced in the UK, although the number of cases is growing.

“In the United Kingdom, for example, it is very clear that there will be no quarantine, that everything will be released because the vaccination rate is high. Why are they vaccinated calmly? Because if you are vaccinated, your chances of getting sick and experiencing adverse events are greatly reduced. The vaccine is not an elixir of immortality, and even vaccinated people in risk age groups can become seriously ill and die. But there will be relatively fewer of them, “he said.

He argued that the quarantine was a means of preventing hospitals from being overwhelmed by COVID-19 patients and allowing them to operate.

“We just realized that it would probably announce the quarantine. Avoiding quarantine is the easiest (form, aut. P.): protect and vaccinate. Or voluntary quarantine if you don’t want to get vaccinated. But there are people in Lithuania who are ignorant of this, there will still be a spread. As the vaccination rate is not very high in our country, the numbers in hospitals are likely to be high enough and will create an additional burden. And then it will be necessary to take steps to fix it.

And what are those measurements? Are these restrictions? After all, the quarantine is multi-layered. Somehow, it will be necessary to limit people’s contacts and try to reduce the number of infections and allow hospitals to function normally, ”said V. Zemlys-Balevičius.

He said the quarantine announcement would depend on the hospital’s occupancy.

“And if not, we may not have that quarantine,” V. Zemlys-Balevičius, a data scientist, said on Monday in the Delfi rytas program.