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“The biggest problem with all unexpected phenomena, like heat, floods, fires, hurricanes and the like, is that they usually cause huge losses. And material for our property, and much greater and more difficult to quantify the damage to nature or people. Blessed are those who are only inconvenienced by these verses. Unfortunately, most countries in the world will not escape more painful consequences in the future, “says K. Šetkus.
The weather watch network in Europe is being re-established
According to him, extreme natural events are difficult to predict accurately because they tend to form in a small local area, and the current climate monitoring network is not sufficient for this. “If several measurements of the air were taken every kilometer or so, we could detect these local phenomena as well, but that is not the case. On the contrary, the meteorological observation points in Europe have been declining drastically for some time, it is good that now this trend is changing and they are being revived ”, says K. Šetkus.
Modern weather forecasts are automated: automatic monitoring of actual weather conditions (temperature, wind, snowy sky, etc.) and powerful global network equipment to help design future weather scenarios. By analyzing these data and phenomena, man makes definitive predictions and can provide information on possible extreme events.
Natural phenomena will only increase
“Sometimes we get letters from people who complain that our predictions ruined the holidays because they were ready for the storm, and where they were and were safe, the storm did not come. However, it must be understood that for someone such a warning may have helped prevent a disaster, ”says the head of the Lithuanian Hydrometeorological Service.
Experts note that younger people, in particular, tend to think that if there hasn’t been a phenomenon for five years, it means it won’t exist at all. Then they choose to build a house somewhere near the river because they are convinced that there are no floods there. However, often even archaeological research does not find the remains of the residential buildings that once stood there, as one flood in fifty years is enough to cause huge losses.
K. Šetkus says that this also leads to proposals, for example to change building regulations, simplify roof structures or the like. However, you are convinced that natural phenomena will only increase in the next decade, so it is important to prepare for them.
According to him, with the climate warming and without taking action, the highest temperature in Lithuania can certainly reach the level that is now recorded in Canada. “The annual warming rate in Lithuania is extremely bright. If we do nothing together with other states, sadly, the most pessimistic scenarios will come true. However, I see many initiatives to reduce that pace, especially in the European region, and I am sure we will succeed ”, predicts K. Šetkus.
Futuristic scenarios are closer to reality
Climate futurologists believe that by 2050. In Lithuania, the average annual air temperature could rise another degree. “While those averages and seemingly low warming don’t sound intimidating, they do significantly change native flora and fauna. In addition, some countries face the opposite phenomenon: cold. For example, this year we have seen exceptional winter weather conditions in Spain, which is not prepared for anything, ”says K. Šetkus.
The futuristic scenario of climate change can be seen in one of the objects of the project “17”, which takes place in summer. The project, which aims to present the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, wants to draw people’s attention to the need for urgent action to combat climate change. In the installation, all who visit it can see themselves in the center of the natural elements.
The head of the Lithuanian Hydrometeorological Service says these examples should help people to understand more clearly the magnitude of the problem and its possible consequences. According to him, it is natural that the younger generation understands these things much more clearly, because they are growing up without questioning climate change. “We had to know and recognize these phenomena. Now we must try to act in such a way that children and grandchildren have as few reasons as possible to blame us for the pollution and the impact on the climate, ”says K. Šetkus.
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