Doctor Strioga: 70% will not be enough to overcome the delta variety. vaccinated people

According to the oncological immunologist doctor of the National Cancer Institute (IMI) dr. Marius Strioga, we can stop new strains only by vaccination, because otherwise the virus will continue to multiply and will have every opportunity to mutate. The doctor spoke about it in the program “Health Recipe”.

– It is already said that the delta variety will be the most common in Europe. Before that, we talk about African, British varieties. Where did the original variety go? Did these new strains displace the original virus?

– Yes, because they are superior, they can infect one person more effectively and defeat others. One can imagine how someone strives for the desired goal: the one who is faster, more agile, stronger, the first to reach the goal. It is also available with coronavirus. The new strain comes with a mutated protein S, but it may also have a new ability to suppress the immune response. As it spreads, the most important thing is the speed at which the virus can enter cells, and if it’s fast, it will win the competitive battle. The original variety has a much lower probability of infection and reproduction, which is why it gradually disappears from the sand. The infectivity of Delta strains, as recent data shows, is more intense compared to the parent or British strains. Delta is the most efficient variety. That means it will spread further.

– The further away, the more new strains become contagious.

– Yes, more contagious, but we do not know if it will be associated with higher mortality and a more severe course of the disease. In the United Kingdom, 99% of the new cases to be identified are precisely the delta variety. 2.2 times more people end up in hospitals. The clinical course is likely to be more difficult. Also, they and the symptoms are a bit different. The most common signs of influenza in this variety are runny nose, sore throat, pain in bones, joints, muscle baths, chills. If you experience such symptoms, a test should be done immediately. It is 5 times more common among young people. They can become particularly large distributors. […] Existing vaccines can elicit an immune response sufficient to counteract the risk of strains. However, the quality of the anti-delta antibodies is lower, which requires higher levels. Higher antibody titers occur after the second dose. Little by little we began to talk about the third dose for fully vaccinated people.

– You mentioned other symptoms. What does this mean? Could it be that a person infected with another strain is later affected differently by the virus?

– We do not know yet. From an evolutionary point of view, the virus should acquire the properties of being more infected, but less likely to cause disease, and even more likely to cause death, since there will be no place to live. So the fight for existence should be won with such varieties. Perhaps the virus is changing your symptoms now. But we will see it by the number of people who end up in hospitals.

– You wrote on your Facebook about another new mutation in the delta itself, which is not yet widespread, but may be even more contagious.

– So far it is not very widespread, very few cases. This strain is called delta plus in laboratories and is known to be much less neutralized by antibodies formed after or after vaccination. Again, we don’t know if this virus will only spread faster or cause more serious illness.

– The worst thing is that you can develop a variety that can be vaccinated. What do you see now, which vaccine protects best against all varieties?

– We see that it is one of the safest RNA-based vaccines, in all respects. These are Moderna and Pfizer. It is a great scientific achievement and there is no doubt that it will be used against other infectious diseases in the future. Novavax, based on classic technology, which is close to approval, also shows good results. RNA vaccines are also convenient because they can adapt to the changing virus and the resulting immune response will not destroy the pre-existing immune response by booster vaccination.

– How many more letters of the Greek alphabet can be needed, how many more varieties can appear?

– It will depend a lot on us. The more people have antibodies and the less chance of the virus penetrating, the fewer strains there will be. If we don’t get vaccinated, we’ll say that we don’t trust vaccines, that the Greek alphabet may not be enough.

– Does the amount of antibodies mean how much immunity we have, how long will it last?

– If you have more antibodies, your decline will not be as fast. Antibody tests must now be standardized in the European Union. In the past, it depended on the research method, the laboratory. We do not yet know what the lower limit of the antibody titer may be. However, it goes without saying that the higher the antibody titer, the more likely you are to have better protection against new strains. But there are people for whom we do not detect antibodies even after 2 doses of the vaccine. Decisions will be made about what to do in such cases.

– Could it be that we don’t have 70 percent? vaccinated in September or October? And in that case, can a faster spreading delta strain lead us to scenarios we wouldn’t want?

– The concept of herd immunity is also a mathematical model that is calculated based on the ability of a virus to spread to the extent that an infected person can infect others. Delta replaces 60 percent. 50 percent more effective than alpha and alpha strain. more effective than the original. Therefore, it seems that herd immunity is no longer required at 70%, but at 95%. The larger the population that will have immunity, the easier it will be to control the waves. The virus may start to spread to certain people.

– How many people should be vaccinated so that we can meet quietly in the fall?

– All those who can be vaccinated according to the indications, from the age of 12. 90 percent. it would be ideal. If we have 70%, we will not have a wave like last year. However, the more people the virus can spread to, the greater the risk from other strains.