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Already on July 1. finally, with the end of the quarantine regime, many compatriots do not hide their regret that, in addition to certain facilities for wearing masks and communicating in private spaces, a series of restrictions continue to be transferred.
Here in the winter, following the presentation of the scenario 4 (A, B, C, D) quarantine release plan by the Board of Independent Experts, guidelines were drawn on what life might be like when the green zone, when day 14. morbidity 100 thousand. the population reaches up to 25 cases.
Although the plan has long since ceased to make sense and some of the exemptions have been made even earlier, some of the things laid out in it are not yet available. For example, cafes and bars were expected to be able to operate indoors once the green zone was reached. Now clients can only be accepted with a passport of opportunity.
The experts interviewed by the tv3.lt portal agree that according to the current epidemiological situation, practically no restrictions could be maintained. However, they caution that premature relaxation at a later date can be painfully expensive.
It is urgent to take into account that the virus breathes through the back
Mindaugas Stankūnas, member of the Council of Independent Experts dependent on the Government, professor at LSMU, emphasized in the first place that the green zone should not be understood only as a decisive factor for the occurrence or termination of some restrictions.
“The green zone talks about the epidemiological situation in the country. This means that we have fewer infected people, fewer people dying; there have been zero deaths for several days, as well as fewer cases being treated in hospital, resuscitation and the like. This shows that, according to epidemiological indicators, we have already reached a really low level, “he explained.
The interviewee pointed out that with regard to layoffs, it should be agreed that there are fewer and fewer.
“If we go about our daily activities, there are very few restrictions left. Could there be more of them? Yes, maybe there could, but there is one thing to consider: it is the Delta variety. We already know that several dozen cases have been identified, there is the called internal propagation.
And when we see what is happening in the United Kingdom (UK), the increase in cases in Israel, Australia (which had very strict controls on arrivals, and now Sydney is closing for 2 weeks in quarantine), we have to understand that the the virus is breathing on our backs. Although we must be happy with the achievements we have already made, we must also understand that the danger is very near, ”warned M. Stankūnas.
Plans for scenario A were revised
Commenting on the initial launches of Scenario A, the interlocutor recalled that the plan was drawn up in January, when the situation was quite different.
“It just came to our attention then. And now vaccination is in full swing and there are enough vaccines: a person can get vaccinated at any time. These and the launches under the ABCD scenario, some started much earlier. And this was done for the simpler reason to see the great effect of vaccination and testing.
Because we believe that vaccination and testing reduce the risk and allow people to live a little more freely. And if we had followed those scenarios, we would certainly have had a completely different situation. Otherwise, the application of specific measures is decided by the Government, the cost-benefit ratio must always be weighed. That if it’s not a Delta variety, I think there really could be more releases. But having it is no longer at the door, but within the country, care must be taken to avoid drastic closures later on, “he said.
At the time, speaking of allowing unrestricted cafes to work, the professor joked that in the summer weather, apparently few wanted to be there.
“Even last summer, I remember going to those cafes, and I don’t remember sitting somewhere inside. Due to the very masks where they are worn, there is no special desire to wear them, which is considered one of the means to reduce the spread of the virus. If it weren’t for that Delta strain, then definitely no masks would be needed, “explained M. Stankūnas.
Did we only enter the “green zone” for a short time?
However, the expert did not dare to predict how long Lithuania can stay in this green zone.
“It is difficult to make predictions now, because there are few cases. Then they would be speculative due to the very high relative errors. But I think the green zone will be awake for a while, in the short or medium term we can really see greener,” he said.
According to the interlocutor, how long Lithuania will stay in this area depends on two things.
“Everything depends on vaccination, which is very important in the fight against the Delta strain. Another thing, we will see how it will spread in general, which already depends on epidemiological control,” emphasized M. Stankūnas.
This summer is not the time to travel
The immunologist of the VU Life Sciences Center prof. Aurelija Žvirblienė. In his opinion, everything would have been released by now were it not for the spread of dangerous new varieties.
“It just came to our attention then. We also see the example of the UK, where the number of cases of spread of the Delta variety is growing very rapidly. This is a remaining part of the restrictions, as if it were justified that certain event rules massive are applied in a similar way, ”he said.
According to her, also for this reason, this summer is not yet conducive to tourism, as it may accelerate the expansion of the Delta variety in the country.
“Traveling this summer is not safe. The strains can also be carried by those who have not been fully vaccinated or who have received the Janssen vaccine, as it is not yet clear how protected they are from the Delta strain.
This is the reason why there is such anxiety that a large mix of people during the summer is likely to trigger a new wave in the fall. The only question is how big it will be: will it be handled or will it again cause major problems in hospitals and increase the number of deaths. We try to avoid such scenarios, “noted A. Žvirblienė.
At the same time, the researcher pointed out that, in any case, there is more and more talk about the need to accept and learn to live with the virus.
“And even though cases are increasing in the UK itself, layoffs continue. Importantly, as the incidence of infection increases, it does not present such a high risk of hospitalization. That is why vaccines help to prevent serious cases. And as we are constantly looking at other countries and how far we are going, we can give an example of how to proceed, “added the immunologist.
The minister prepares a package of orders
As Health Minister Arūnas Dulkys explained when commenting on the changes on Monday, there are not many changes, because there is a high risk from the spread of the Delta variety. The decline in vaccination rates is even more worrying.
“All the same provisions are moving, maybe we had more discussion about the use of open passports of events and opportunities and the real possibility of controlling the process, because we know that if the tool is there and it works badly, the trust in it is waning., “he said.
Asked whether the country’s transition to the green zone could affect further releases, the minister’s representative, Aistė Šuksta, indicated that a package of decisions by the Operations Manager is currently being prepared and will be presented to the public.
“The situation is evaluated in a comprehensive way: morbidity indicators, situation in hospitals, spread of virus strains, vaccination rates. Therefore, decisions are made taking into account all the components ”, he answered the question of when it would be possible to live without greater limitations in general.
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