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After the summit, the Russian president did not speak about Belarus during his press conference. The US president, in his own way, reiterated the essence of his dialogue: “I shared our concern for Belarus. He did not discuss what had happened; it’s just a different idea of what to do. “
Clearly, the leaders of perhaps the two most influential nations in the world wanted to discuss, in their heads, more important issues. It is very likely that the issue of Belarus is approached superficially.
Only experts on Belarusian domestic politics do not rule out the possibility that the conversation about this was even deeper than it appeared in Biden’s summary.
Doesn’t seem like a major deal has been reached
Before the meeting between the presidents of Russia and the United States, several observers and observers said that Belarus could be part of some package of agreements between Moscow and Washington. After all, political analyst Yuri Drakochrust expressed doubts that anything important had been agreed.
When Western representatives once again express their concern about the situation in Belarus, Belarus itself is already openly laughing at this wording, naviny.by said the expert.
How could Putin react to Biden’s words about Belarus in Geneva? During his press conference on the conclusions of the summit, he responded “very strictly” to the question about the Russian opposition and Alexei Navalna. The point is that the opposition is the enemy. And this answer can also be successfully “designed” for Belarus, believes J. Drakochrust.
Does this mean that Aliaksandr Lukashenko should not expect any action from Moscow after the Geneva meeting?
The analyst believes that the Russian government, with “known conservatism and a clear dependence on history”, after suffering the irreplaceable president of Belarus for so many years and supporting him at the peak of protests last August, will probably not give now. no drastic step. – in other words, Lukashenko nemes and envelopes. And why do it if the Belarusian economy does not collapse and Lukashenko never enters “any NATO”, that is, does not cross the line, which is definitely red for Putin? naviny.by interlocutor.
Does this mean that the current goddess of the Belarusian political regime is behind Moscow, as behind the masonry?
“Not exactly. And the Geneva summit is nothing.” Moscow may refuse to support Lukashenko not because it is going to be pressured by the United States, but because Moscow may have its own very specific plans on Belarus, “says Drakochrust.
Has the Russian president suggested any options?
For his part, Arseniy Sivicki, director of the Minsk Center for Strategic Studies and Foreign Policy Research, is convinced that the Kremlin has a long history of plans for Belarus, and that even points of contact with the West can be found in it. plan. .
In the run-up to the Geneva summit, “the Kremlin was interested in proposing its own solution to the crisis in Belarus, selling that scenario to Washington so that such intervention would be given the green light and not receive another portion of Western sanctions.” he commented. naviny.by said A. Sivickis.
At the end of last year, my expert Moscow embarked on a strategy of instrumental political and diplomatic influence on the Belarusian leader, in order to force him to comply with the terms of the secret 2020 agreement in Sochi. According to the expert, the aforementioned conditions foresee the organization of a dialogue between the two countries, the transformation of the political system into a parliamentary-presidential form of government, “which in fact would mean the withdrawal of Lukashenko from the political scene.”
Only Lukashenko managed to stabilize the situation inside the country (through brutal repression), which gave him some resistance to pressure from the Kremlin. And the Kremlin itself does not risk taking more severe measures for fear of reactions from Washington, he stresses. naviny.by interlocutor.
According to the expert, Biden’s comments after the summit “show very clearly that Putin has proposed some solution to the Belarus problem.”
Forecast: Kremlin will harden its position
And what’s next? Now we can expect “a greater synchronization of the actions of Russia and the West to solve the problem of Belarus,” says A. Sivickis. He predicts that “the Kremlin will now openly toughen its stance on the official Minsk.”
In that case, in the fall, one can expect “one way or another” in the economic crisis in Belarus, which will undoubtedly provoke “large-scale protests” in the country.
And this could become a pro-Kremlin background to interfere in Belarus’ internal affairs and “force Lukashenko to withdraw,” Sivickis said.
According to the expert, Putin may organize another meeting with Lukashenko, where the “last warning from Moscow” will sound, “guarantees will be offered in exchange for the implementation of the Sochi agreements.”
Alexander Lukashenko has fallen into the geopolitical trap, not only because he has made a number of strategic mistakes, but also because the Kremlin has actively lured him into those traps. “While actively pressing on his surroundings, he decided on more than one adventure, for example, he landed on a Ryanair plane,” explains the expert.
The story with the airplane is a turning point, after which there is no turning back.
The story of the plane and the arrest of opposition blogger Ramanas Pratasevičius has become “a kind of turning point, after which Lukashenko no longer has a way back in the international arena,” says A. Sivickis.
The expert emphasizes that in the case of the Moscow-Washington agreement and more active action on Belarus, the risk to the country’s sovereignty will increase dramatically.
A policy expert is assured that when the world’s most powerful discuss the regional crisis without stakeholder participation, the national interests of those countries are often simply ignored.
“Unfortunately, Belarus’ actions have caused the country to lose its international identity. Its legitimacy has been violated and its actions are associated with threats to the world and the security of the international scene,” says naviny.by.
In such circumstances, it is important that the West solves the problem as soon as possible, and it can delegate the task to Russia, but on one condition: if the red line is not crossed (at least by formally preserving Belarusian sovereignty), concludes A. Sivickis.
Moscow won’t start helping Lukashenko’s opponents
Still, most independent experts are skeptical after the Geneva summit that Moscow and Washington will find common ground in Belarus.
The main arguments are as follows: firstly, these powerful players do not trust each other too much, and secondly, the Kremlin does not have very serious reasons to replace Lukashenko as soon as possible.
Although he is a complicated, stubborn and twisted negotiator, Lukashenko is more attached to Moscow, so it would be impossible for Putin to find someone who is even more anti-Western. So toppling Mr. Lukashenko, if you honestly don’t want that, it wouldn’t be very easy, even for the Kremlin.
So why complicate your life if the current unprecedented isolation is gradually weakening the position of the Belarusian leader in the endless negotiations with Moscow? Russia may not be feverish, take no risks and achieve its own little by little, but with confidence and without deviating from the path of fraternal integration.
Another thing is that the West is increasing the cost of supporting a toxic ally of the Russian government, both economically and politically. So the Kremlin is definitely considering at least some scenarios for Belarus. And in such circumstances, Lukashenko is unlikely to feel comfortable and confident.
Only for those supporters of change in Belarus who are very eager to wait for the Kremlin to pave the way for such change, it is better not to dream too much. If Moscow decided to get its hands dirty in this case, it would do so only to achieve its own goals, writes naviny.by.
And so far it seems that Putin and his entourage do not intend to force changes in the Belarusian government. And it will no longer really help those who view destructive opposition as Western builders.
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