[ad_1]
V.Zemlys-Balevičius shared his ideas on his Facebook account.
“In the municipalities where the worst situation began after the fall, the general average simply fell, because the municipalities where the situation was good did not manage to grow anyway,” he writes.
According to V. Zemlis-Balevičius, in the municipalities of Vilnius and Kaunas the drop in cases is impressive: here 40% of weekly cases fall to stage B.
“The fact that we don’t see such an impressive drop in municipalities, where the situation is much better, probably determines how much it can drop. The virus is not gone yet and there is still room for it to spread, so it is still too early to relax, although you can really enjoy the fall, “writes the scientist.
V. Zemlys-Balevičius points out that in municipalities where the situation is better, the percentage of vaccination is lower. The data scientist speculates that this is due to the redistribution of vaccines.
“With the current vaccination procedure, when you can get vaccinated throughout Lithuania, I would suggest that the residents of the western regions do not wait until more vaccines are brought to them and are engaged in vaccine tourism. With the passport of opportunities, a paradoxical situation can arise in which guests from eastern Lithuania will be able to warm up in seaside cafes with a strong offshore wind while locals bite their teeth behind the door, ”writes the researcher.
According to him, the third wave of the virus was broken by three factors: vaccination, tests and heating of the air.
Photo by Sigismund Gedvila / 15min / Vaidotas Zemlys-Balevičius
“The addition of official vaccinated (positive) and unofficial (unknown but presumably lower than officially vaccinated) vaccines, especially in eastern municipalities, all epidemiological models show that the number of cases is beginning to decline, because there simply aren’t any place where the virus can spread ”, writes V. Zemlys-Balevičius on Facebook.
The scientist writes that it is difficult to say which of these factors was decisive. According to him, the climate is not controllable, so more efforts are needed in vaccination and tests to eliminate absolutely all the restrictions.
“Paradoxically, Lithuania can achieve public immunity faster than other EU countries precisely because of the mismanagement of the epidemic, the percentage of cases will be much higher here and consequently fewer vaccines will be needed to achieve that immunity”, explains the data scientist.
V. Zemlys-Balevičius underlines that, although the situation is improving, the prevalence of the virus in Lithuania is still quite high and we are among the leaders in Europe.
Therefore, be careful with those who have not been vaccinated. Compared to Europe in Lithuania, and without the possibility of a passport, much more is already possible, so it is better for those without immunity to wait until the cases drop to such an extent that the restrictions are completely lifted.
Those who are not vaccinated should exercise caution.
The tests do not provide immunity and there are no restrictions at all for children under the age of 16, so sitting inside a cafe without immunity when there are children around, most of whom are not being tested, is certainly not safe. The risk of getting infected is actually lower compared to December, but until we get to Scenario A, it’s still not low enough to ignore, ”the Facebook expert writes.
According to V.Zemlis-Balevičius, there is a lot of optimism that it will be possible to have a quiet vacation in the summer.
Photo by Sigismund Gedvila / 15min / Mobile coronavirus checkpoint
“Unfortunately, there will be no holidays for state institutions, because there are still many risks in the fall. If prepared properly, they will be manageable. Above all, I hope that the government’s plans to combat the epidemic will be translated into an eradication strategy.
It is interesting that in Lithuania at the beginning of the epidemic an elimination strategy was applied, but unfortunately after that it was abandoned.
The removal strategy is based on doing everything possible to prevent the virus from spreading in society. This strategy has been followed by China, New Zealand, Australia, and other East Asian countries. Europe and North America have opted for a mitigation strategy that uses mitigation only rather than virus removal: flatten the curvecurve smoothing – ed. past.) instead remove the curve (elimination of curves) – ed. past.).
The topic is already being discussed around the world. Interestingly, in Lithuania at the beginning of the epidemic an elimination strategy was applied, but unfortunately later it was abandoned. Is it possible to apply such a strategy in Lithuania when neighboring countries do not apply it, which is also a good question ”, writes the researcher.
[ad_2]
