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On Saturday, Lietuvos Rytas publishes a population survey carried out by the sociological research company Vilmorus, which shows what there was a sharp decrease in the favorable evaluations of G. Nausėda.
If in early March, before quarantine, the president was favored by 74.8 percent. 7 percent of those surveyed, and now, in June, these figures have changed dramatically: 60.1 percent of the population favors the president and 13 percent unfavorably.
Political scientists emphasized that the drop in ratings is sharp, early, but also natural, so there is no need to dramatize the situation.
Appeared only episodically during quarantine
During the quarantine, President G. Nausėda appeared in public only episodically, and those episodic performances weren’t very bright either. It was clear that decisions are not made by the president, so quarantine has certainly contributed to the downgrade. Rima Urbonaitė, a political scientist at the Mykolas Romeris University, said so.
Photo of Lukas Balandis / 15min / 15min in the studio – Rima Urbonaitė and Kęstutis Girnius
“In such situations, people want to see rescuers taking their sleeves off.” And we did not see this from the President, – said R. Urbonaitė. – We saw completely unnecessary communication when each presidential phone call was reported. We mainly saw the president in photos sitting on the phone. It didn’t make a very good impression. “
R. Urbonaitė noted that Prime Minister Saulius Skvernelis chose a different method of communication, which seemed to work best: he appeared in public infrequently, but when he appeared he composed the most important accents, therefore he did not let the audience forget that he he was the prime minister and makes decisions together with the Minister of Health Aurelijumi Veryga.
“This situation was not favorable for the president,” said R. Urbonaitė. – During the quarantine, S. Skvernelis and A. Veryga were the main actors, and it would not have been good for the President to intervene artificially either, because it would be evident immediately. Naturally, that turn from the president, the attempted maneuver, ended the downward trend. “
The political scientist noted another trend: although the number of those who favored the president decreased by almost 15 percentage points, the number of those who disapproved increased by only 6 percentage points.
“About 10 percent of the rating is somewhere in the air. At this point, it will be interesting to see how those percentages will be distributed in the future. The president may recapture part of the favorable evaluation, but it may be the other way around: part of that “suspension rating” can enter a negative evaluation, “said R. Urbonaitė.
The drop in ratings is natural, but early
Mažvydas Jastramskis, a political scientist at the Vilnius University Institute for International Relations and Political Science (TSPMI), says that the decline in G. Nausėda’s rating is natural, but, compared to previous presidents, it is early.
Photo by Lukas Balandus / 15min / Mažvydas Jastramskis
“In Lithuania, it is normal for presidents to have very high ratings at the beginning of their terms, during the first years, but those ratings drop when they become more active in the political field,” Jastramskis said.
He recalled that both President Valdas Adamkus and President Dalia Grybauskaitė had extremely high ratings at the beginning of their work, exceeding 70 percent, but later, when the country’s leaders faced political challenges, the ratings fell. For example, D. Grybauskaitė’s high grades were affected by the 2012 clash with the Labor Party.
“In this sense, the decline in G. Nausėda’s ratings is a bit early and differs from previous presidents precisely in that, apparently, the ratings fell precisely due to inactivity, non-participation in politics,” said M. Jastramskis. “In the past, as a general rule, the president’s ratings fell after the new Seimas elections, when new governments were formed and presidents reacted.”
The political scientist says that this is related to something broader: the people in Lithuania do not fully understand what the president has to do, what his duties and tasks are.
“G.Nausėda has been trying to do a lot lately. And being an arbitrator, and initiating certain changes when it comes to the welfare state. These two positions cannot be easily reconciled. At first, we heard strong statements that previous presidents avoided the formulating visions in the social and fiscal economy, “said M. Jastramskis.
He says that it is currently difficult to say what the future rating curve will be for G. Nausėda: “According to the annual report, it seems that the president does not leave the position when the president acts not only as a certain referee, but also tries to influence in the public policy process. “
Retrieving grades will be difficult
TSPMI political scientist Tomas Janeliūnas says it may be difficult for G. Nausėda to regain lost grades due to the upcoming Seimas elections, during which other politicians will receive more attention.
Lukas Balandis / 15min photo / 15min in the study – political scientist Tomas Janeliūnas
“Losing grades is always easier than getting them back. The drops in D. Grybauskaitė’s ratings show that it takes almost a couple of years, – said T. Janeliūnas. – The fact that the Seimas elections are approaching can also make it difficult for G Nausėda quickly regain popularity. The public will pay more attention to future leaders, potential prime minister candidates. Enthusiasm and expectations will be directed to new officials. “
He believes that the main reason for the decline in G.Nausėda’s rating is not so much quarantine as a natural and inevitable decline in people’s interest: “G.Nausėda’s rating was extremely high, abnormally high, and was expect it to decrease in the long term. “
However, Janeliūnas agrees that the quarantine accelerated the ratings downgrade: the president was not the main leader in crisis management, he even became a joke on social media, and this “gave critics Additional arguments that the president is insecure, unprepared, without a clear action plan. “
“During the quarantine, one of the most important functions of the President was basically lost: the formation and representation of foreign policy in the international space. And in internal politics, the president could not become the” second prime minister “, because that it would only have caused additional stresses, “said T. Janeliūnas.
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